How did that Schmuck Gilbertson do on 2022 Predictions?
Last year I made 16 predictions, pretty arrogant of me, but I did it, and now we will see what happened.
1. Republicans will take Congress by 20 seats. They will take the Senate by 2 seats. Numerous attempts to cheat will be exposed and thwarted.
OK was off on the numbers, as was every legitimate predictor. I will give myself 6 out of ten, because I wasn’t as far off as some others, and there were indeed numerous attempts to cheat.
2. Trump will announce for President, Pompeo will be his running mate. DeSantis will stay in Florida. Nicki Haley will announce her candidacy for President as well.
Trump did indeed announce for President, and DeSantis has not yet announced. I now believe that DeSantis and Nicki Haley will both try to run. I’ll take 8 out of 10 for this one.
3. VP Harris will announce a run for President in 2024. At least 3 Democrat Governors will announce, as well as some of the last elections schmucks. AOC will announce for the Senate, and be smashed by Schumer.
VP Harris is nowhere near, to announcing and everyone is afraid to enter since Joe Biden has expressed an interest. I believe ultimately I will be correct (Joe will not run), but I didn’t get this one. And AOC is still in Congress. I’ll give myself a goose egg here.
4. Putin will invade the Ukraine (70% chance) in February or March. Biden and Western Europe will implement anemic sanctions that will make no difference whatsoever.
10 out of 10
5. China will not back down and will continue to build its military, but it will not attack Taiwan in 2022. They will announce at least two major new weapons systems, and consolidate control over all Asian waters.
China will not be forced to pay reparations for COVID, but China’s economy will suffer badly, and therefore its people will too. Xi will not care, it does not interfere with his plans. The Silk Road and other initiatives will continue.
This one is 10 out of 10. China did not attack Taiwan, they did announce new military initiatives, China’s economy is suffering, and their plans to dominate the world continue.
6. Iran will announce they have nuclear weapons. Israel will attempt to take them away. Biden will condemn Israel’s attempts (whether successful or not), and will not do anything about Iran.
I previously predicted that the U.S. would be mired in a three front war. It will not happen in 2022. The events of 2022 that I predict here are a dress rehearsal, circumstances will coalesce in 2023.
Iran did not announce they have nuclear weapons. Yes, Biden is still doing nothing, and we are not in a three front war. But I missed the major prediction. 1 out of ten
7. COVID will continue at moderate levels, but treatments will emerge and the death rates will dwindle. By November people will stop caring at all, except as a political issue. At least five states will continue strict COVID measures, and the party in charge will not be re-elected. Democrats will suffer greatly because of it.
I was largely correct about Covid, but nobody was really interested in keeping the strict measures. Let’s say 7 out of 10.
8. Inflation will exceed a rate of 10%/year for at least three separate months.
Depending on which inflation measure you choose, I was certainly correct about runaway inflation, 10 out of 10.
9. The Fed rate will increase to 1.5% but no higher. A new inflation measurement will be introduced, perhaps more than one. If more than one, they will disagree with each other.
Blew this one. I underestimated the stupidity of the Biden Administration and its flunkies. 0 out of 10
10. Bitcoin will rise, but will not hit $100,000.
Blew this one too, nobody anticipated the Bitcoin crash, except me late last year. And then I didn’t believe my own analysis. 0 out of 10 for not trusting myself.
11. Housing prices will continue to rise in preparation for a significant crash in 2023.
Got this one, Housing prices rising, even in the face of higher interest rates. And I still think a crash in 2023 is likely. 10 out of 10.
12. Alec Baldwin will not go to jail. Jussi Smollett will go to jail, but not for more than a month. Elizabeth Holmes will not go to jail. Ghislaine Maxwell will be sentenced to an effective life sentence, but will agree to a deal with the Feds. She will commit suicide, shortly thereafter.
Let’s see, Alec Baldwin going to jail was only wishful thinking. Smollett spent 6 days in jail. Elizabeth Holmes is doing big time jail. Ghislaine Maxwell will be in jail forever, but she has not yet committed suicide. I’m giving myself 5 out of 10 for this one.
13. Mass exodus from California and New York will quietly continue, and increase by 50% in 2022.
The new articles I have seen have said that the exodus from both states has increased, but I couldn’t find a reliable rate of increase. But being the smug Schmuck that I am, I’m declaring 10 out of 10.
14. The Democrats will pass no major legislation during 2022. Build Back Better will not come back to life. Major climate initiatives will not pass
I definitely missed this one. The Democrats have passed massive and irresponsible bills, including the cynically named Inflation Reduction Act. This will cause massive damage to America. They managed to con West Virginia Senator Manchin, make huge promises to him to support the massive bills, and then they pulled the rug out from under him. 0 out of 10.
15. Biden will have at least two major health scares during 2022. They will be played down and not well publicized, but the rumors will tell all.
I could only find one, and it was played down into the dirt. 0 out of 10 on this one. Because I expected it to be an issue and it wasn’t.
16. Abortion rights will continue to tighten in 2022. The Supreme Court will find a way to dodge a ruling on Roe v. Wade.
Missed this one completely. 0 out of 10.
Total score, 77 out of 160. I completely missed about half of these.
But I’m actually reasonably satisfied with the predictions I got right. It was a difficult year to predict, and I out-predicted the Biden Administration on inflation, the Russian invasion, China, Covid and Housing.
I’ll do better for 2023. I promise. Happy New Year!
Good likeness in the photo…
I do look like that now. I think you are jealous because you can’t grow a beard.
I think he’s grading on the curve.
“Got this one, Housing prices rising, even in the face of higher interest rates.” Except Housing prices are beginning to fall. At least according to Forbes and others as of December. Matter of fact, my family just got a $400K place for $350K. Ten percent off is a nice discount.
” Inflation will exceed a rate of 10%/year for at least three separate months.” But it never hit 10%, much less for three months, and is slowing falling. It hit 9.1% in June and is at 7.1% now. Hard to call a declining trend a runaway.
“COVID will continue at moderate levels, but treatments will emerge and the death rates will dwindle.” You give yourself a passing grade, I say all have flunked. We current have over 300 covid deaths a day. That’s twenty times the death rate for seasonal flu. Sure, you can say we are doing so much better now as compared to 2020; but compared to Seasonal Flu, we suck. We don’t even know, unless we scan and scan, who’s dying. Yes, it’s old people, over 70, not 65. But did you also know it’s front-line workers? I’m talking paramedics, nurses, etc. But I am also talking counter-people, cashiers, everyone public facing. Young people. We have lowered our life expectancy and I say that’s more than moderate.
My favorite though was the comment: “there were indeed numerous attempts to cheat.” ba dum bump. What do you do with that one? Indeed. Numerous. Attempts only. Probably all Republicans too. This is a crock of shit Joe, and you know it.
But 9 out of 10 for revisiting. Brave man.
First, housing prices rose through most of the year and are still rising in Florida and several other states. And yes, it is now 2023.
The consumer price index was damned close. Commodities have increased by over 20%. Chicken wings at publix rose 50%. And countries around the worlds are much higher (many over 25%). The Biden Administration didn’t admit that inflation was a problem until later. So yes, I’m claiming victory.
Your covid comments are out of context and full of crap. There are 300 million people in this country, that is a low number.
And back to your blindness of the news that disagrees with the Democrat narrative. I know you read this site because you constantly make bs comments, so you must have seen the articles that cite cheating.
Joe, your grasp of the numerical world is tenuous at best. And I don’t know what Democrats have to do with your covid misstatements?
I admit I was spinning high on the covid deaths, but full of crap: hardly. Gonna stick with this comment on your revisionist estimates on your estimates and maybe retort on your other comments later.
You said: “Your covid comments are out of context and full of crap. There are 300 million people in this country, that is a low number.”
Is that how you look at it? A number against the whole? Pretty much assures that you feel that anything that causes death is a low number, doesn’t it?
WWII deaths — low number?
Vietnam deaths — pitiful?
9/11 deaths — don’t even matter?
Joe, one of the things covid taught me is that it’s not just the number against the whole that matters, but it’s the whole number against similar items that we should be against. IOW, we keep saying “it’s just a flu.” That should be the point: why do we just brush off 50,000 seasonal flu deaths a year as “it’s just the flu, they were old?” I, instead, wonder why we are not clamping down on care facilities to dramatically lower that number by simple vaccine, mask, and distancing precautions? Why not grade and withhold funds to these facilities based on flu death metrics? I daresay we could forestall 25,000 needless deaths a year.
Why don’t we care about 50K deaths a year when many of these deaths just didn’t need to happen?
You are right, 50K against 300M is a nit. It’s also like wiping out Bradenton Florida every year. I like Bradenton, it’s a city. I went there in the 60’s to swim and camp out. I think we should care more, not less about that. I think it’s a big deal, I don’t think it’s a low number. I think it’s a city. There is no recovery, no coming back, no second chance, no redo for death.
That was in response to me saying you flunked on your estimate that “covid will continue at moderate levels but treatments will emerge and the death rates will dwindle.”
I noted that we are doing better, but 20 times the death rate of a seasonal flu. Your response to that is “there are 300 million people in this country, that is a low number.” I was wrong in my 20-times, it’s currently over 4 times the death rate from seasonal flu, and falling to 2 times if the current rate holds. And it’s been holding for the past 6 months, going up right now. But come on Joe, twice the seasonal flu rate is moderate? Hardly.
Seasonal flu claims 50K in a “good” year, 25K average year.
Covid claimed 236K in 2022, over 4-8 times seasonal flu deaths.
We currently do in about 300 a day, that’s a yearly rate of 110,000, over 2-4 times the seasonal flu rate.
I do not call that moderate and I am pissed livid that we don’t even talk about who is at risk and that the risk is not moderate, but 4 times our seasonal flu rate, we should be taking 4 times the precautions — if we can. Especially if we can easily. Instead, we allow our government, the greatest research house in the world, to let us live with the urban legend that it’s the folks over 65, the old, the weak, the infirm. That it’s a nit against 300 million, it’s a low number, insignificant, like getting hit by lightning…..
I say BULLSHIT, it’s not moderate, it’s important.
And it’s not over 65, it’s over 70, bigtime. But it’s also front-line workers, big time. And that’s the ugly secret they don’t want to talk about. And, for you, front line worker deaths are a REALLY low number against 300 million.
I will let you look up covid deaths in the medical world, but our service workers have also been hit exceptionally hard: https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/2022-06-04/a-usf-study-shows-retail-and-service-workers-have-higher-covid-19-death-rates Why would our government not tell us that these people are dying at rates higher than average?
As death rates fall, the front-line percentage of death rises. And they ain’t old, they ain’t infirm. And I say it is not moderate, it’s important: they matter.
Personally, I put you with Biden, Fauci, and the rest of the assholes who are putting OUR collective heads in the sand instead of telling us 1) 100,000 deaths a year is STILL a big fucking deal of death, 2) who is still dying and it ain’t just the old farts 3) who should take extra precautions and what should they be? Why the fuck are they sliding this under the carpet?
Sorry Joe, but I am pissed and you put your hat in the ring…..I think you are wrong on this one and that it’s a huge story the public needs to know and Biden and company are purposely avoiding so the economy won’t falter further and dems can do better in the midterms. It worked so why change?
As we learn more and more about the potential of this being a lab escape, perhaps even with US funding, maybe even Fauci himself, sure, putting it in the rearview is in their best interest. It just pisses me off.
Welcome to the machine Joe.
No better than a flip of the coin.
While you predictions and assessments of accuracy are rather digital, I will give you high marks for two things: 1) You revisited your predictions, 2) Yes, you are a schmuck. Do keep your day job and send that crystal ball back for repair!
Thanks!
“The consumer price index was damned close.” “And countries around the worlds are much higher (many over 25%).” “So yes, I’m claiming victory.” OK, so the topic for your future vision is inflation over 10% and claiming victory is based on CPI and other countries. Got it. NOT.
“so you must have seen the articles that cite cheating.” Yes, and I have BUSTED every one based on FACTS. Yet, you keep citing them and avoiding the BUST. You got nothing. No harvesting, no felon voting scheme, no illegal alien voting invasion. Most of the fraud cases I see are lone wolf operations and generally: REPUBLICAN. They are not substantial enough to affect the outcomes.