How did that Schmuck Gilbertson do on 2022 Predictions?
Last year I made 16 predictions, pretty arrogant of me, but I did it, and now we will see what happened.
1. Republicans will take Congress by 20 seats. They will take the Senate by 2 seats. Numerous attempts to cheat will be exposed and thwarted.
OK was off on the numbers, as was every legitimate predictor. I will give myself 6 out of ten, because I wasn’t as far off as some others, and there were indeed numerous attempts to cheat.
2. Trump will announce for President, Pompeo will be his running mate. DeSantis will stay in Florida. Nicki Haley will announce her candidacy for President as well.
Trump did indeed announce for President, and DeSantis has not yet announced. I now believe that DeSantis and Nicki Haley will both try to run. I’ll take 8 out of 10 for this one.
3. VP Harris will announce a run for President in 2024. At least 3 Democrat Governors will announce, as well as some of the last elections schmucks. AOC will announce for the Senate, and be smashed by Schumer.
VP Harris is nowhere near, to announcing and everyone is afraid to enter since Joe Biden has expressed an interest. I believe ultimately I will be correct (Joe will not run), but I didn’t get this one. And AOC is still in Congress. I’ll give myself a goose egg here.
4. Putin will invade the Ukraine (70% chance) in February or March. Biden and Western Europe will implement anemic sanctions that will make no difference whatsoever.
10 out of 10
5. China will not back down and will continue to build its military, but it will not attack Taiwan in 2022. They will announce at least two major new weapons systems, and consolidate control over all Asian waters.
China will not be forced to pay reparations for COVID, but China’s economy will suffer badly, and therefore its people will too. Xi will not care, it does not interfere with his plans. The Silk Road and other initiatives will continue.
This one is 10 out of 10. China did not attack Taiwan, they did announce new military initiatives, China’s economy is suffering, and their plans to dominate the world continue.
6. Iran will announce they have nuclear weapons. Israel will attempt to take them away. Biden will condemn Israel’s attempts (whether successful or not), and will not do anything about Iran.
I previously predicted that the U.S. would be mired in a three front war. It will not happen in 2022. The events of 2022 that I predict here are a dress rehearsal, circumstances will coalesce in 2023.
Iran did not announce they have nuclear weapons. Yes, Biden is still doing nothing, and we are not in a three front war. But I missed the major prediction. 1 out of ten
7. COVID will continue at moderate levels, but treatments will emerge and the death rates will dwindle. By November people will stop caring at all, except as a political issue. At least five states will continue strict COVID measures, and the party in charge will not be re-elected. Democrats will suffer greatly because of it.
I was largely correct about Covid, but nobody was really interested in keeping the strict measures. Let’s say 7 out of 10.
8. Inflation will exceed a rate of 10%/year for at least three separate months.
Depending on which inflation measure you choose, I was certainly correct about runaway inflation, 10 out of 10.
9. The Fed rate will increase to 1.5% but no higher. A new inflation measurement will be introduced, perhaps more than one. If more than one, they will disagree with each other.
Blew this one. I underestimated the stupidity of the Biden Administration and its flunkies. 0 out of 10
10. Bitcoin will rise, but will not hit $100,000.
Blew this one too, nobody anticipated the Bitcoin crash, except me late last year. And then I didn’t believe my own analysis. 0 out of 10 for not trusting myself.
11. Housing prices will continue to rise in preparation for a significant crash in 2023.
Got this one, Housing prices rising, even in the face of higher interest rates. And I still think a crash in 2023 is likely. 10 out of 10.
12. Alec Baldwin will not go to jail. Jussi Smollett will go to jail, but not for more than a month. Elizabeth Holmes will not go to jail. Ghislaine Maxwell will be sentenced to an effective life sentence, but will agree to a deal with the Feds. She will commit suicide, shortly thereafter.
Let’s see, Alec Baldwin going to jail was only wishful thinking. Smollett spent 6 days in jail. Elizabeth Holmes is doing big time jail. Ghislaine Maxwell will be in jail forever, but she has not yet committed suicide. I’m giving myself 5 out of 10 for this one.
13. Mass exodus from California and New York will quietly continue, and increase by 50% in 2022.
The new articles I have seen have said that the exodus from both states has increased, but I couldn’t find a reliable rate of increase. But being the smug Schmuck that I am, I’m declaring 10 out of 10.
14. The Democrats will pass no major legislation during 2022. Build Back Better will not come back to life. Major climate initiatives will not pass
I definitely missed this one. The Democrats have passed massive and irresponsible bills, including the cynically named Inflation Reduction Act. This will cause massive damage to America. They managed to con West Virginia Senator Manchin, make huge promises to him to support the massive bills, and then they pulled the rug out from under him. 0 out of 10.
15. Biden will have at least two major health scares during 2022. They will be played down and not well publicized, but the rumors will tell all.
I could only find one, and it was played down into the dirt. 0 out of 10 on this one. Because I expected it to be an issue and it wasn’t.
16. Abortion rights will continue to tighten in 2022. The Supreme Court will find a way to dodge a ruling on Roe v. Wade.
Missed this one completely. 0 out of 10.
Total score, 77 out of 160. I completely missed about half of these.
But I’m actually reasonably satisfied with the predictions I got right. It was a difficult year to predict, and I out-predicted the Biden Administration on inflation, the Russian invasion, China, Covid and Housing.
I’ll do better for 2023. I promise. Happy New Year!