Putin Reveals His End Game – We Were Correct
If you have been following my commentary on Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you know that I estimated that Putin’s goal was to get to the bargaining table, hurting as few people as possible. He has accomplished his goal of taking the territory he wanted and putting a noose around the rest of Ukraine. Now he has announced that he is ready to bargain, as we predicted.
According to Reuters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would but was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognize the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. They are perfectly willing to cease all hostilities if those conditions are met.
Note that in the articles below, we told you exactly in February he would do this. He doesn’t want all of Ukraine, he is taking more than he actually wants because he needs bargaining chips to trade for sanctions relief.
This may be easier than you think. Europe desperately needs Russian gas and oil, and prices have shot up in the U.S. The Biden Administration is tone deaf and has not made any moves to increase oil production.
Putin doesn’t want unnecessary suffering of the Ukrainian people. This is not because he is a nice guy, it is because the strategy requires it. He wants to be able to play this in the media. He has already built up a narrative of how the bad “Ukrainian Nazis” killed over 13,000 people. Whether real or fake, it is a higher number than 400. You will be seeing that particular exchange for the next 6 months.
According to the U.N., only about 400 civilians have been killed so far. This is certainly a tragic loss in human terms, but considering the massive army that Russian as fielded and the extent of the invasion, this is not really a lot.
But don’t get me wrong, Putin’s relatively delicate touch will not last much longer. As I mentioned before, he is tightening the noose. Or in Judo parlance, he wants Ukraine to “tap.”
I’m not sure why the Biden Administration does not see the strategy or, if it does, has not acted to thwart it. The time to act would have been several months ago, setting up the country with Stingers and Javelins, but that did not happen. I want to think there are people in the State Department and CIA that are as smart as me, who would have seen this coming. But I can’t be sure.
If you don’t believe that we called it this precisely, be sure to review the articles above. We usually love being right, but in this case, I’m feeling a lot disgusted and a little bit sick to my stomach.