RFK, Jr. may not be hurting Trump as much as it appears at this  moment

Early polling and pundit prognostications suggested that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would take more votes from Biden than Trump.  This led to a major strategic effort by President Biden and the Democratic National Committee to discredit JFK, Jr. and block him from ballot access.  Democrats created a top-level campaign team to implement the strategy.

More recent polls indicate that RFK. Jr. may be taking more votes away from President Trump.  This has led Trump to shift from a passive response to the RFK, Jr. candidacy to a more critical attack – suggesting that the son of the late New York Senator is a radical leftwinger.

The case that RFK, Jr. poses a greater threat to Trump than Biden can be made if you only look at the national head-to-head contest.  In an NBC poll, Trump holds a 46 to 44 percent lead over Biden, but it turns into a 39 to 37 percent lead for Biden, with RFK, Jr. taking 13 percent.

BUT (ß And that is a big but) … the relative standing across the nation is misleading to the point of being useless information.  The presidential election hangs on the electoral vote.  Not the popular vote. 

To project a possible winner – even at this early stage – one has to concentrate on “likely voters” and the data in the battleground states.  RFK, Jr.’s impact will depend on the states in which he appears on the ballots. 

RFK, Jr. is on the ballot in Michigan.  If it is true that he takes more votes away from Trump, then he could pose a threat to Trump’s chances of reaching the 270 electoral votes to regain the White House by shifting Michigan into the Biden column.

It was recently announced that RFK, Jr. will be on the California ballot.  That will have no negative impact on Trump.  California is almost certainly going to be a Biden win.  No matter which candidate RFK, Jr. takes more from, it will not change the outcome of the all-important California electoral vote.

According to reports, RFK, Jr. has reached the required number of signatures in several states – including Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.  The campaign says it has garnered the required number of signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina, but has not yet submitted the paperwork to the respective state officials.  These can be key states.

The RFK, Jr. campaign hopes to achieve ballot access in all 50 states.  Only then would national heads-to-head numbers have any meaning.

At this moment, the only analysis that means anything is the states in which RFK, Jr. is on the ballot. The only meaningful analysis is how RFK, Jr. impacts in those few states.

So, there ‘tis.