Economist Genetski predicts Trump win

I am not sure if I am doing my friend, economist Bob Genetski, a favor or a disservice by publicizing his prediction that President Trump will win re-election.  He is not just an economist, but one of the most respected and accurate professionals in his field.  His “Classic Principles” newsletter is a must-read for investors and the financial industry.  He has authored several books, including “Nation of Millionaires” and “Rich Nation/Poor Nation.”  He is an outstanding speaker and has several online videos well worth viewing.  Bob is … oh, enough of the promotional stuff.  If you want to know more, look him up on the Internet.

Genetski’s prediction flies in the face of those political pundits’ predictions of a humiliating defeat for Trump that permeate most of the Fourth Estate.  Even the Trump forces are biting their nails over polling results that give former Vice President Joe Biden a commanding lead in several of the essential battleground states – but the winds of fortune are shifting.

Genetski bases his crystal ball vision on two factors that the professional politicians and pollsters may be missing.  One is an exceptionally large turnout for Trump of first-time voters – or at least voters who have not shown up in their polling places for several years.

This is consistent with the Trump strategy – motivating and turning out new voters.  To the extent we have data, it does appear that more folks are registering Republican and Democrat.  Since pollsters often create their samples from registered voters – and even better from likely voters – it is extremely difficult to take into account an unusually high number of last-minute registrations.

Genetski notes that between 20 and 30 percent of those attending Trump rallies are new voters.  Will they register – and will they vote?  If they are attending rallies amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic, there is a strong likelihood that they will.  Of course, that is still a small population compared to the millions of people who will be voting, but they could be significant in closely called battleground states – and one voter usually represents seven other like-minded voters.

While Democrats see 2020 as a one issue election – Covid-19 – Genetski believes that the economy will play a major role.  That has been the general rule – which had Democrat strategist James Carville coining the evergreen admonition, “It’s the economy, stupid” in 1992.  That is why Democrats are trying to blame Trump for the impact of the virus as a disease AND the economic effects of the shutdown – and yet they want to shut down further.

Genetski argues conservatives (Republicans) are the least likely to tell pollsters for whom they are voting – maybe even fib to the pollsters.  That could be a bigger factor this year because Trump supporters have taken such a brutal beating by Democrats and especially the press.  There was a lot of criticism of Hillary Clinton when she referred to Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables.”  The Democrat politicians, left-wing media personalities and those panels of parroting pundits have made no secret of their visceral contempt for more than 40 percent of the American public.

Finally, Genetski references the minority vote as a possible unpleasant surprise for the Biden campaign – and Democrats in general.  While Democrats profess confidence in the loyalty of the black and Hispanic vote, they are privately sweating blood.  The polls suggest that Trump will do at least as well – and likely better – than he did in 2016.

Not long ago, I penned a commentary suggesting that if Trump wins, it could be due to the minority vote.  Within the minority community, there is a lot of dislike for Biden.  There are rumors that black and Hispanic males are moving to Trump.  The big issue is the juxtaposition of Biden leading the passages of the crime bill that sent tens of thousands of minorities to prison for minor drug offenses and the fact that Trump passed criminal justice reform to end the most egregious abuses.

Minority voters can protest against Biden by voting for Trump or not checking the presidential box on the ballot – or not voting at all.  While Democrats see the turnout problem as voter suppression in the south, it was the low minority turnout in the Democrat-run inner-cities that gave Trump such states as Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Genetski cites two prognosticators with a strong track record in predicting presidential elections.  The Trafalgar Group bases their generally correct projections on a voter enthusiasm model.  They see Trump easily exceeding the 270 required electoral votes.

Stoney Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth uses a complex model based on historic votes.  He sees Trump with 362 votes in the all-important Electoral College – more than he got in 2016.  Norpoth rates Trump’s chances of winning re-election at 91 percent.

Since the final debate, pollsters are uniformly showing movement toward Trump.  If Trump does win, it will not only be a defeat for Joe Biden and the Democrats, it will be a humiliating rejection of the national news industry.  It will put the spotlight on years of dishonest partisan reporting and solidify national distrust of the Fourth Estate.  And that would be a good thing.

My friend Bob Genetski has established a solid reputation as one of the most reliable economic prognosticators in America.  He is a numbers guy.  We shall see if his foray into the precarious political realm is as successful.  I hope so.

So, there ‘tis.