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Economist Genetski predicts Trump win

Economist Genetski predicts Trump win

I am not sure if I am doing my friend, economist Bob Genetski, a favor or a disservice by publicizing his prediction that President Trump will win re-election.  He is not just an economist, but one of the most respected and accurate professionals in his field.  His “Classic Principles” newsletter is a must-read for investors and the financial industry.  He has authored several books, including “Nation of Millionaires” and “Rich Nation/Poor Nation.”  He is an outstanding speaker and has several online videos well worth viewing.  Bob is … oh, enough of the promotional stuff.  If you want to know more, look him up on the Internet.

Genetski’s prediction flies in the face of those political pundits’ predictions of a humiliating defeat for Trump that permeate most of the Fourth Estate.  Even the Trump forces are biting their nails over polling results that give former Vice President Joe Biden a commanding lead in several of the essential battleground states – but the winds of fortune are shifting.

Genetski bases his crystal ball vision on two factors that the professional politicians and pollsters may be missing.  One is an exceptionally large turnout for Trump of first-time voters – or at least voters who have not shown up in their polling places for several years.

This is consistent with the Trump strategy – motivating and turning out new voters.  To the extent we have data, it does appear that more folks are registering Republican and Democrat.  Since pollsters often create their samples from registered voters – and even better from likely voters – it is extremely difficult to take into account an unusually high number of last-minute registrations.

Genetski notes that between 20 and 30 percent of those attending Trump rallies are new voters.  Will they register – and will they vote?  If they are attending rallies amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic, there is a strong likelihood that they will.  Of course, that is still a small population compared to the millions of people who will be voting, but they could be significant in closely called battleground states – and one voter usually represents seven other like-minded voters.

While Democrats see 2020 as a one issue election – Covid-19 – Genetski believes that the economy will play a major role.  That has been the general rule – which had Democrat strategist James Carville coining the evergreen admonition, “It’s the economy, stupid” in 1992.  That is why Democrats are trying to blame Trump for the impact of the virus as a disease AND the economic effects of the shutdown – and yet they want to shut down further.

Genetski argues conservatives (Republicans) are the least likely to tell pollsters for whom they are voting – maybe even fib to the pollsters.  That could be a bigger factor this year because Trump supporters have taken such a brutal beating by Democrats and especially the press.  There was a lot of criticism of Hillary Clinton when she referred to Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables.”  The Democrat politicians, left-wing media personalities and those panels of parroting pundits have made no secret of their visceral contempt for more than 40 percent of the American public.

Finally, Genetski references the minority vote as a possible unpleasant surprise for the Biden campaign – and Democrats in general.  While Democrats profess confidence in the loyalty of the black and Hispanic vote, they are privately sweating blood.  The polls suggest that Trump will do at least as well – and likely better – than he did in 2016.

Not long ago, I penned a commentary suggesting that if Trump wins, it could be due to the minority vote.  Within the minority community, there is a lot of dislike for Biden.  There are rumors that black and Hispanic males are moving to Trump.  The big issue is the juxtaposition of Biden leading the passages of the crime bill that sent tens of thousands of minorities to prison for minor drug offenses and the fact that Trump passed criminal justice reform to end the most egregious abuses.

Minority voters can protest against Biden by voting for Trump or not checking the presidential box on the ballot – or not voting at all.  While Democrats see the turnout problem as voter suppression in the south, it was the low minority turnout in the Democrat-run inner-cities that gave Trump such states as Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Genetski cites two prognosticators with a strong track record in predicting presidential elections.  The Trafalgar Group bases their generally correct projections on a voter enthusiasm model.  They see Trump easily exceeding the 270 required electoral votes.

Stoney Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth uses a complex model based on historic votes.  He sees Trump with 362 votes in the all-important Electoral College – more than he got in 2016.  Norpoth rates Trump’s chances of winning re-election at 91 percent.

Since the final debate, pollsters are uniformly showing movement toward Trump.  If Trump does win, it will not only be a defeat for Joe Biden and the Democrats, it will be a humiliating rejection of the national news industry.  It will put the spotlight on years of dishonest partisan reporting and solidify national distrust of the Fourth Estate.  And that would be a good thing.

My friend Bob Genetski has established a solid reputation as one of the most reliable economic prognosticators in America.  He is a numbers guy.  We shall see if his foray into the precarious political realm is as successful.  I hope so.

So, there ‘tis.

 

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

3 Comments

  1. Dan w

    Trump will win the popular vote as well as the electoral college. The old retard joe can’t draw flies to his rallies. Even his token ho and bathhouse Barry can’t even draw people in. But just look Trump’s rallies. So the fake news media can take their naysaying BS and shove it up their commie asses.

    Reply
  2. KenM

    Just a note. I have never been polled by a “legitimate” polling company, but if I was, I would not admit to being a Trump supporter simply because the radical left might find out about it and I value life and property too much to allow that to happen. It’s dangerous enough to comment on articles like this one.

    Reply
  3. Dan Tyree

    KenM with all due respect I’m tired of Americans having to be afraid to speak our minds. I thank God that I live in a part of the country where people are allowed to defend themselves and their property. The antifa thugs will have a bad day if they mess with me or mine. I’ve never in my life mistreated people, especially people of color. But I think it’s time for people to stand up to the mobs. It’s been quoted, I can’t remember by who, that for evil to succeed is for good men, and women to remain silent. I haven’t been polled either. I don’t answer my phone if I don’t know who’s calling. But I’ll shout it out loud that I support Trump. So go ahead radical leftist. Make my day.

    Reply

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