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The election is over …  but who won?

The election is over …  but who won?

Over?  Yes … essentially over.

It is now less than 30 days to Election (Counting) Day – as I call it. Even though the polls are not rendering up a clear winner, the election is essentially over.  There is no meaningful number of undecided voters. 

That has always been the case in every election, but even more so today.  Millions of folks have already voted.  By November 5th, it is estimated that more than half of those who intend to vote will have voted.  The winning name is already in the sealed envelope just waiting to be opened in November.  The only thing that can influence the outcome is the get-out-the-vote efforts.  What has not ended is the polling and the analysis of polls to try to divine who the winner is.  It  is a little like the Academy Awards with all the  pre-shop  speciation even though the winners are already determined

As an election analyst, I write about polling numbers quite regularly.  Before getting into what I see in my own crystal ball in terms of the  2024 race, it may be useful for me to explain how I arrive at my interpretations and predictions.  If your only medical diagnostic too; is a thermometer, you make all judgments by body temperature. That is a bit like polls in an election.  They do not tell us everything, but it is all we have with any empirical value at all.

That leaves the political analyst with four problems.  First is the sheer number of polls using different models and different questions.  Second is the relative accuracy of the various polls.  Third is the interpretation of the polls by the various stakeholders.  (The latter is a particularly vexing problem since partisan stakeholders – politicians and the news media — will use selective information to “spin” the data to a desired meaning.)

Finally, there is the issue of who is polled.  Is it a poll of the general public … registered voters … or likely voters? Their utility in assessing an election rises in that order.  “Likely voter” is the only survey professional pundits take seriously.

Partisans always spin the data to make their candidate look like a winner.  In fact, campaigns often conduct tandem internal polls – a public one with questions crafted to put their candidate in the best light, and the so-called internal polls that give a more accurate picture upon which to base strategic planning.  Smart pundits ignore all polls produced by campaigns.

When an election is close, all those problems get magnified.  On any given day, we will see headlines indicating that President Trump is gaining, and – on the same day – polls that show Vice President Harris gaining.  That is exactly the situation we are in today — which makes professional, experienced and objective analyses all the more important to minimize the “spin.”

Finally, polls are only useful within days of when the public is surveyed — not the date released to the public.  By then they are outdated.  The longer the period between the polling day and the release date, the less reliable is the information.

Of the tens of thousands of polls taken in an election year, there are no more than a dozen that are considered sufficiently reliable to be used to make judgments – and then only for that moment in time.

With all that in mind, let us take a look at the current polling numbers.

The first thing to note is that virtually all the polls – no matter who is ahead – are in the margin of error.  That literally means we have no idea who is really ahead – nationally or in the all-important battleground states.  But there are some trend lines that can give us at least a hint of a reality.

Prior to President Biden’s withdrawal, the trend lines and the actual number were extremely foreboding for the incumbent President.  Not only were the numbers trending against him, but they were outside the margin of error. By every assessment Biden was going to be crushed by Trump – and down ballot Democrats were poised to lose the House, the Senate and local offices.  So much for Biden’s bravado about being the only person who could beat Trump.

Without the debilities and baggage of Biden, Harris was able to create a new more favorable trend line and she essential reached a parity with Trump.  That was the last significant shift in trend lines.  Harris failed to get the anticipated “bumps” in the polls from picking a vice presidential candidate … from the Democrat convention … and from the debate.  Since then, it has been a teeter-totter situation with Trump and Harris going up and down within the margin of error.

At this moment in time, Harris appears to be holding a slight lead in the national popular vote – 51 to 49 percent.  But … we do not elect presidents by popular vote.  Being ahead in the popular vote may make a candidate feel good, but it tells us nothing about who the winning candidate will be.  We have to look at all those battleground states to see who has the best shot at the required 270 elector votes.

And even there, it is impossible to divine a potential winner.  Trump and Harris bob up and down in various battleground states on a daily basis.  Some days it appears that Harris has the edge in reaching the 270 elector voters.  Other days it is Trump.

There is to be seen a micro-trend in Trump’s favor.  While still within the margin of error, Trump’s numbers are moving up by fractions of points while Harris’ numbers are moving down.

With all the head-to-head polling in the margin of error, we have to look at other polling information to see who might be trending toward a win.

One of the more significant polling questions is, “Is the country heading in the right or wrong direction?”  A little more than one-third of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction.  That is a body blow to the party in power.

CNN’s numbers guru Harry Enten noted that when the “right direction” number is that low (37 percent today), the party in power loses … virtually all the time.  That does not bode well for the Harris/Walz ticket or Democrat prospects of taking control of the House and retaining control of the Senate.

Another trend that favors Trump is that he is more trusted to handle the issues considered to be most important by the voters.  Their top issues are the economy (inflation), immigration and crime – and Trump owns them, and has throughout the campaign.  Democrats have the advantage with abortion and defense of democracy – the latter only by a smidgeon.  Voters rarely put the abortion issue in the top ten of their concerns.  A Democrat victory depends almost exclusively on having voters put aside all the critical issues and simply fear or hate Trump personally.

We also have to look to the past for insight into the future.  In both 2016 and 2020, Trump did far better in the actual vote count than he was doing in the polling at this time in those years. If that holds true, Trump wins handily.

There are reasons Trump tends to perform better than the polls.  Many voters do not want to admit to family, friends and pollsters that they are voting for Trump. That hidden vote has historically included Blacks and Hispanics … to a lesser degree the so-called “suburban moms” …  and this year, it may include Jews who are unhappy with Democrats’ stand on Israel vis a vis the war in the Middle East. 

A Harris win depends on two things – having convinced enough voters to fear Trump personally over and above all else — and to outpace the GOP in the now all-important get-out-the-vote effort.  How voters will vote is settled.  It is now a matter of who comes out to actually vote – and who does not.

Taking all things into consideration, I would not bet the ranch on Trump winning, but I would bet a beer.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So, there ‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of businessman, conservative writer and political strategist Larry Horist. Larry has an extensive background in economics and public policy. For more than 40 years, he ran his own Chicago based consulting firm. His clients included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. Larry professional emphasis has been on civil rights and education. He was consultant to both the Chicago and the Detroit boards of education, the Educational Choice Foundation, the Chicago Teachers Academy and the Chicago Academy for the Performing Arts. Larry has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and has lectured at colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern and DePaul. He served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. Larry has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries have appeared on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by audiences for his style, substance and sense of humor. Larry retired from his consulting business to devote his time to writing. His books include a humorous look at collecting, “The Acrapulators’ Guide”, and a more serious history of the Democratic Party’s role in de facto institutional racism, “Who Put Blacks in That PLACE? -- The Long Sad History of the Democratic Party’s Oppression of Black Americans ... to This Day”. Larry currently lives in Boca Raton, Florida.

10 Comments

  1. stranger danger

    Let them eat dog!

    Be a cesspool like Detroit.

    Illegals done ate my baby.

    Democrats are domestic terrorists and must be destroyed.

    HAGD, I am the women’s choice. I love them. Even when they don’t want too.

    Reply
  2. Andrew Gutterman

    My prediction? Harris 55%, Trump 42%. Harris wins by a landslide, and wins the electoral college as well.

    Two reasons. Abortion, and she is a woman. For the first time we may get a woman president. This time around the candidate is not telling Republicans they are deplorable, so she will get some of the Republican vote. Much like the pro abortion special elections, like in Kansas.

    The fact that Harris will probably be a disaster as President makes no difference. She will support abortion rights, and I think that is the single most Important issue in this election. Trump energized women to want control over their own bodies, after millennia of being the property of men. (Right wing men still believe that, the entire purpose of western Religion is male dominance)

    Go Harris!

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Andrew Gutterman … I think you are too optimistic. If Harris wins, it will be much closer — probably a cliff hanger for days or weeks. Also, you may personally believe that abortion is the number one issue, but voters disagree. When asked to list their most important issues, abortion comes in around fifth or sixth, at best, and in some surveys does not even make the top ten. Two things are true. Most voters favor legalized abortion with restrictions — but they do not put that issue at the top of their concerns in making an election decision. That is why so many who believe in legal abortions are voting for Trump.

      Reply
      • Andrew Gutterman

        Larry,

        As we all learned in 2016 and 2022, the polls are WORTHLESS. So I look at what matters most on an emotional level with the voters. I do not see people getting violently angry over inflation, but they sure do over abortion. If you are a woman, abortion is likely to be the #1 issue, not that many want to get one, but to eliminate male control over their decisions. Not being a woman you cannot feel what that is like on a visceral level, but believe me, it’s important to them.

        My wife was raised Catholic, and bought the story, hook, line and sinker, until she asked why her daughters were treated as second class citizens compared to her son. That was the end of her Catholic devotion.

        In the modern world freedom is more important.

        Reply
        • larry Horist

          Andrew … I think your anecdotal experience does not reflect the voters in general. Millions of women are voting for Trump — many of whom favor legalized abortion. It is one thing to question the accuracy of polls, but when the numbers are so overwhelming, there is some truth to be had. Only a small percentage of voters — and a small percentage of women voters –have abortion as their voting decision maker. If that were the case, the gender gap would be much wider and Harris would be winning in a landslide.

          Reply
  3. Americafirst

    I do not believe there is going to be a November election due to the 2020 election that is still under scrutiny. 2020 has to be taken care of first, by law. Yes, there is a lot of scrutiny about the 2020 election. More and more the nation states are reporting fraud in the 2020 election. We are all going to find out the truth of Biden very, very soon. Biden is dead no matter how certain traitors say otherwise. Kamala also was executed at just about the same day as Biden was. Kamala is not who you think she is. Democrats are gaslighting as many citizens as they can. More and more of us are getting wise to the Democrats. There are many Democrats that are good people as are Republicans, yet the elite Dems and Rinos are not good people. I believe Trump is coming back with a new government and Constitution, rather, the original Constitution. Trump won’t be the 47th President but will be the 19th President of the United States Republic. This is not hogwash or lies as Frank and Andrew or even Tom will come back with their famous slander. Both of them may have a surprise coming, too. If there was going to be a November election – Trump already won. Now let’s see the haters on this site blast me. I expect them to do just that. They can’t help themselves. I’m waiting.

    Reply
    • Glen

      Trump had best keep his hands off the Constitution, which is what I have been saying to anyone who wants to change it.

      The best thing Trump can do is act by the Constitution and role back the perversions of the Constitution since the 1960s. This starts with undoing Birthright Citizenship for Illegal Aliens.

      Reply
      • Americafirst

        Glen – we are ALL going back to our first Constitution after the Articles of Confederation. The Constitution we have or had now expired in 1999 and much of it works against the people. the amendments are separate. We will still have a constitution, it’s called the Constitution For the United States. Do not threaten Trump for this. Why did you not know this? I think I should have been a history teacher.

        Reply
      • larry Horist

        Glen … I am a hardline constitutionalists. It is why I am a conservative. My concern is over those on the left who have been undermining the Constitution over the years by imposing a strong central government with a permanent elitist ruling class. The Constitution calls for a FEDERAL system in which most powers are retained by the states and the citizens. That is the why the Bill of Rights protects our freedoms FROM government. The Founders could not have been more clear that in the Tenth Amendment — the most ignored of all the Bill of Rights.

        Reply
  4. Darren

    The funny thing is everything that is happening now and in history was written
    in a song by
    Living Colour – Cult Of Personality

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xxgRUyzgs0

    This song not only talks about Kamala word salads,
    but also goes in to the Left trying to eliminate Trump
    through Assignation.
    Not to mention the band Kicked Ass in this song!

    This Country has escaladed to extremes in corruption.
    Thank you Status Elites!
    Democrat and Republican both.
    My vote is for Trump!
    And need be Vance!

    Reply

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