Select Page

Post-debate polls starting to come in … and more trouble for Biden

Post-debate polls starting to come in … and more trouble for Biden

According to a CNN snap poll immediately following the debate indicated that two-thirds of the viewers thought Trump won the contest.  Now we have a more detailed CNN poll – and, as can be expected, the numbers favor Trump, but not by a lot.

According to the CNN poll, President Trump leads President Biden at the national level by 6 points – 49 to 43 percent.  That is outside the margin of error.  That is exactly the same result CNN found in April.  The good news for Biden is that in this poll, his performance did not change the opinions of registered voters – at least in the CNN poll.  The bad news is that his performance did not change the opinions of registered voters. 

While the overall numbers did not change, a CNN poll indicated that more people were likely to vote for Trump after their debate (31%) than are more likely to vote for Biden (10%). Approximately 13 percent of voters indicated that the debate made them more likely to vote for an alternative candidate or not vote for President.

Biden’s favorable rating dropped to 36 percent – the lowest of his entire presidency in CNN polls. Only President Carter had a lower favorable rating at this time in the campaign season.  Every President seeking a second term with a favorable rating below 48 percent lost – Jerry Ford (45%), Trump (38%), George H.W. Bush (38%) and Carter (31%).

Voters believe that someone else would have a better chance to beat Trump by 56 to 43 percent.  In terms of Democrat voters, only 25 percent believe Biden would be stronger than the anonymous “someone else” (75%).

In looking at motivation, the CNN poll shows that 66 percent of Biden voters are voting AGAINST Trump – and only 34 percent are voting for Biden because they like him.  With Trump, it reverses – with 63 percent who are voting FOR Trump and 37 percent voting
AGAINST Biden.  That explains why other polls show Republican voters with the most enthusiasm.

Should Biden decide to withdraw, Vice President Harris is the odds-on favorite to replace him.  All the likely replacements lose to Trump, but Harris is the only one that puts the race into the margin of error with Trump at 47 percent to Harris’ 45 percent.  But all do better than Biden.

The CNN poll puts more pressure on Biden to throw in the towel.  Pressure is mounting from other quarters.  A high percentage of influential left-wing news media personalities are still suggesting that Biden needs to go.  The dam has broken among Democrat officeholders with half dozen members of Congress suggesting or outright calling for Biden to get out.  There is nothing to suggest that the pressure on Biden will subside.

In a previous commentary, I gave the odds of Biden getting out as 50/50.  I now consider the odds favor a withdrawal after the Democratic National Convention – or whenever he is officially nominated.  (Folks forget that he may get nominated ahead of the convention in order to qualify for  the Ohio ballot.)  I calculate that on the pernicious and tenacious calls for a withdrawal and the likelihood that Biden will have senior moments in the future.

So, there ‘tis,

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

24 Comments

  1. Grank stetson

    Ja think we have problrms? Thank you Captain Obvious. Now twll us something we don’t know…..

    Reply
  2. Darren

    Apparently CNN is the acting Henchmen for the Dem Party as SOMEONE told them to be.
    It is nice to put it all in prospective.
    That also explains the complete Debate!

    Reply
  3. frank stetson

    What’s the status for these two men, both running for President to be the strongest, most powerful man in the world. One is suffering dementia, the other is demented, you be the judge. Somehow, the voter has decided they can do no better.

    One wants to lift all of America, the other wants revenge and retribution on his American enemies.

    Biden is alleged criminal, pedophile, incest guy and head of the Biden crime family. In his spare time, he is President. No awkward sex has been proven. No pedophilia or incest proven. No crime family proven. No charges on Joe.

    Trump is proven and the sex is awkward. One PBP poster read my stuff, yes they read my stuff, he asked “who the fuck gets off fingering a stranger except you?” I can only respond: TRUMP and ask if you need to see the court document description? The EJ Carroll one is priceless. As in bad. As in this guy couldn’t get over my threshold to be near any of my family. He’s a sexual abusing felon who cheats at life, love, business, and politics.

    Trump’s business has numerous felonies for records cheating. He has a number of felonies for his hush money payments to suppress free speech to advantage his 2016 election changes. Sexual abuse – guilty. Defamation – guilty. And three more indictments to get through. His 2020 election lawyers pled guilty to felonies around rigging the 2020 election for Trump.

    So, you can say you have the stuff to convict Biden, you don’t. You can say it’s unfair, unjust, and just Democrats being Democrats, but it is not just Democrats. His own people are the ones testifying against him, standing up to do the right thing and tell the truth. A lot of Republicans say this is wrong and he is not Trump 2016, he’s Trump 1/6/2021. Open you heart, your mind, and perhaps take another look.
    And for those who say the 2020 election was rigged, stolen, whatever, you are correct. Trump tried to rig the 2016 by suppressing free speech with hush money payments to squash the news of his dalliances with porn stars, playboy models, and someone the doorman knows. He tried to rig the 2020 as his lawyers already pled guilty to in Georgia. But saying Biden and the Democrats did it, that’s just a fake rationalization to support your fake fact. You got 65 bites at the court apple and, face it, you just suck. You couldn’t get it done. Then you got a half dozen bites at the recount apple where you used your own people to do the counting, and, face it, you just suck. Do you see a trend in this? You stormed the Capitol in Michigan and tried to kidnap the governor, that failed. You stormed the Capitol in Oregon, that didn’t work. Then you stormed the nation’s Capitol building to rig the election where you did indeed stop the people’s vote for a few hours showing us your frustration and inability to have anything better than a suck plan implemented by suck people for a suck result as we arrest, indict, convict and jail many who whimper “but Trump made us do it, he told us lies” as they suck pondwater from the muddy bottom of the Trumplicant pond.

    And now you tell US “But don’t do it again?” or “We’re locked and loaded if you try it again.” Why not? So far, the giant sucking sound comes from your end of the stick. We did nothing wrong, so we most certainly will do it again.

    Meanwhile: we put much of Trump’s 2016 campaign management in jail for various crimes. Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, went to prison. Trump’s former campaign vice chairman, Rick Gates, went to prison. His personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, Trump’s campaign aide, Roger Stone, White House national security advisor, Michael Flynn, campaign adviser, George Papadopoulos, all worked on the 2016 campaign and all when to jail. And then he pardoned them all solely because they are the President’s men. Law and Oder President.

    And then Trump himself is a convicted felon for paying hush money to a porn star for spanky sex with a stranger while preggo wife is untouchable in order to stop free speech of this news hitting the electorate just before he squeaked by Hillary and ending his run. He rigged that election; his felony proves it.

    The Trump Organization’s former CFO, Allen Weissenberg, was charged, convicted, and will spend a few months behind bars. Trump’s business is a corrupt enterprise with multiple felonies for cooking the books. He is liable for millions for false valuations in order to get loans or better rates on loans cheating others who play fair from accessing those funds. He got caught defrauding Trump University Students. He got caught stealing from his own foundations. Fuck, this turd is accused of peaking at teenaged beauty show contestants. Yech. And I thought the spanking was sick.

    For the 2020 election, Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, was charged with wire fraud and money laundering and will go to jail for Congressional contempt. Elliot Broidy was the vice chair of Trump’s inaugural committee pled guilty to federal charges related to illegal lobbying. Two of his lawyers, Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell, have pleaded guilty to election-related crimes and will testify against him about his attempt to rig the 2020 election. His personal lawyer, Rude Ghouliani, owes over $145M for spreading Trump’s lies.
    All in all, Trump’s top management got close to 30 years in prison with 11 knocked off by his fraudulent pardons, like the one he gave to Kushner’s crook of a Dad.

    But wait, there’s more. They felt that Trump sent them when they went to the Capitol. He told them to go. He told them to fight. His friends stood next to him and told them to make war and he did not protest. They said “this is war.” Trump sent them in. Trump said he would go, but instead pussied out and watched them on TV attacking, damaging, and taking over our Congress, Capitol, and voting process, and did nothing except munch on some burgers for over 3 hours and even then, someone else made the call to bring in the troops. Over 1,250 have been charged, over 750 guilt’s, 250 felonies and over 460 sent to jail. Many not in jail have house arrest and the bracelet. Approaching three million in damages, these fucks raised the Stars and Bars in the Capitol while they pissed and shat in the corners. While 22 years is the highest sentence so far, these folks will spend hundreds of years in prison. For Trump lies. And yes, if he’s elected, he will set these felons free just like all the other felons that are on his team, his friends, his family, that he has already set free. Law and Oder.

    Voter fraud. You can whine. You can whimper. But you have tried and you have failed to prove it. We found it, we proved it, and we put you in jail for it. That’s just the facts, jack, and don’t look back. Because you can tell us you are lock and loaded, that you are watching, and that you will not let it happen again, but the truth is —– you can’t find it and you can’t get it done and we are doing you left and right BECAUSE we are a nation that lives by the rule of law and we have proved you are breaking it.

    Bring it on. We will respond just as we have. Until he quits, Joe is the guy, polls be damned, Democrats doubters, including myself be damned. It’s dementia versus the devil and I will vote for Joe.

    Reply
    • Tom

      Great summary of Trump!!

      Reply
      • Frank stetson

        Thanks Tom

        Reply
        • Archie

          Awww. Bromance. Like two queers in a barrel

          Reply
  4. Tom

    This article gets a Stop The Spin (STS) rating of STS – 5 Besides the old and moldy data that looks like Larry’s pic LOL, here are some other reasons why:

    1) Larry has said many times (and I agree with him) that polls are not very meaningful right now. Yet he keeps writing about polls. Is it dementia? Or wishful Trumplicantism? He says he has minimal faith in polls. And I agree with him. Yet he keeps boring us with writings about polls. CNN CEO is a heavy Trump donor and CNN is also involved with Project 2025, and very in favor of it. They are Trumplicants!

    2) Bloomberg poll that is 2 days old has Biden leading Trump in two states (MI, WI) and has closed the gap in the others to anywhere between 1 and 3 points behind. 6 points only exists in one state. Larry’s poll data at the national level is old. The July 10th Economist poll has Trump at 46, Biden at 43. For latest data see youtube.com/watch?v=0QQ6Segj2KE and get the latest facts.

    3) Where Biden scores really big is in the latest Pew Research Poll Global Poll. Biden leads Trump by up to a 40 point margin! Yes, see this at just google “globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump” And the debate did not change this. The world still hates Trump as much now as it did before. (this is the latest data, based on G7 comments, it seems to still be accurate).

    4) Lets provide some favorability rating balance. As of July 10, 2024 Trump has an unfavorability rating of 53.6! His favorability rating is 41.7 which is only 3.7 points higher than Biden – not good news for a challenger! Most challengers with such a little spread have lost to the incumbent. And Biden is just beginning his fight! Just google projects.fivethirtyeight polls on favorability of donald-trump/* to view favor-ability data.

    5) Larry says, “Voters believe that someone else would have a better chance to beat Trump by 56 to 43 percent. ” but this might not be true according to a survey that says that as of today, Trump would win 51 times out of 100, Biden would win 49 times out of 100. Again, not good for a challenger! But Larry does not focus on where Trump’s numbers should be as a challenger in order to overtake Biden in the general election. Just google the “Project FiveThirtyEight 2024 Election Forecast”.

    6) Larry says, “The CNN poll puts more pressure on Biden to throw in the towel. ” Philadelphia Inquirer says, “Biden had a horrible night Thursday. But the debate about the debate is misplaced. The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.” See article at *https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/first-presidential-debate-joe-biden-donald-trump-withdraw-20240629.html* Oh and lets not forget that 100 psychiatrists have signed a letter to the RNC demanding they remove Trump because he is unfit for office for several reasons, 1) Malignant Narcissism; 2) Frontal Temporal Dementia characteristics of poor decision making, inability to focus, poor behaviors, lying, etc – all signs of what is to come in spades. Why doesn’t Larry write about this???

    7) Based on Larry’s old and biased data, I would not rely on his odds. Biden is just ramping up the fight. Yesterday’s Dem meetings came out supporting Biden overwhelmingly.

    Personally, from an Independent’s perspective, I predict Biden will stay in, and the Dem party will rally around him. To ditch him now would most likely have poorer results. I predict that Trump popularity will fall more once the Seneca Project in the battle ground states is in full swing. Once commercials from Lincoln Project and others start running commercials about Trump’s dementia and his gaffs. Trump will fall more as he continues to try to lie about not knowing about Project 2025 – its either a lie or his memory is failing like he accuses Biden of. It will fall more when Judge Chutkin holds her DC Court evidence trial in mid August as a result of the SCOTUS immunity decision to send Trumps case back to her to determine what acts are immune and what acts are not immune. All will get known about Trump’s Jan 6th entanglements in August. CEO’s are galloping away from Trump due to the debate and his affiliation with Project 2025. Women are organizing against Trump. Black women and Hispanics are beginning to pull away. Independents are pulling away gradually. Trump is about to find out what democracy is all about!

    So, there ‘tis, all the things Larry decided not to tell you!!!!

    Reply
  5. larry Horist

    Tom …. RealClearPolitics has put together a summary of polls that show Trump gaining in every battleground state. If the election were held today, he gets 289 electoral votes according to CNN. Very few Democrats seem to share you optimistic rose-colored-glasses view of the situation and the future. But, you are one of the partisans — not the most objective pundit. You claim to operate on facts, but it seems more like wishful thinking. Yes, you told any one who reads your crap more than I did. But I was offering opinions based on reality, not personal desire.

    Reply
    • Tom

      Yes, look up realclearpolitics and you will see this opinion: “The site has shown a conservative inclination in its content and commentary, as noted by various sources over the years. In early interviews and articles, founders McIntyre and Bevan openly discussed their conservative viewpoints and criticism of mainstream media biases.” Since late 2020 they took a sharp right hand turn.

      Another source says the following, “In the Trump era, news and poll aggregation website RealClearPolitics took a “rightward, aggressively pro-Trump turn,” according to The New York Times.

      As it did so, its funding from ideological, right-wing foundations increased considerably. The result? “Real Clear became one of the most prominent platforms for elevating unverified and reckless stories about the president’s political opponents, through a mix of its own content and articles from across conservative media,” per The Times. See *https://www.exposedbycmd.org/2021/04/28/state-policy-network-partners-with-realclear-to-promote-its-right-wing-agenda/* and other sites all say they made a hard right turn.

      Now, since you won’t accept the above, I checked with another source, niemanlab dot org and here is what they say about realclearpolitics, “Real Clear Politics was a “trusted, go-to source” for unbiased polling. The Trump era changed its tone — and funding sources.” If you google the previous sentence, you will be able to find the article.

      I would have referenced my sources if the candy-ass program you use would have allowed several references to be listed. But since it would not, I simply told people what to google.

      If you want to legitimately pass yourself off as unbiased, or “honest and fair-minded” which you are not, use center/ unbiased sources. Notice in the opinion of several sites, realclearpolitics has engaged in lots of fake news and misinformation since Trump. So when you use them, you are also engaging in fake or at least suspect information.

      CNN is right, their CEO is a big Trump donor. And as I said, Trumps popularity will be steadily declining over the next four months, ” I predict that Trump popularity will fall more once the Seneca Project in the battle ground states is in full swing. Once commercials from Lincoln Project and others start running commercials about Trump’s dementia and his gaffs. Trump will fall more as he continues to try to lie about not knowing about Project 2025 – its either a lie or his memory is failing like he accuses Biden of. It will fall more when Judge Chutkin holds her DC Court evidence trial in mid August as a result of the SCOTUS immunity decision to send Trumps case back to her to determine what acts are immune and what acts are not immune. All will get known about Trump’s Jan 6th entanglements in August. CEO’s are galloping away from Trump due to the debate and his affiliation with Project 2025. Women are organizing against Trump. Black women and Hispanics are beginning to pull away. Independents are pulling away gradually. Trump is about to find out what democracy is all about! “

      Reply
      • larry Horist

        Tom … You cannot get away from spinning to support you propaganda approach. I used RealClearPolitics as ONE example. Virtually every poll shows Trump picking up support in battleground states. RealClearPolirics is considered a credible source and used by media numbers crunchers like Steve Kornacki. And you are suddenly enamored with the Seneca Project — which is just another of MANY political PACs supporting Biden. There are many PACs in the game — and your favorite is not one of the major players. Neither is the Lincoln Project. To find the big PACs, you need look at those controlled by the political powerhouses. The two congressional leaders.
        Also Nancy Pelosi. Labor money. And Republicans have theirs controlled by Trump and Republican congressional leaders. Seneca is no big deal. You responses show a level of naiveté and ignorance as to how things work in the real world. You tend to research to support your bias instead of learning.

        Reply
        • Tom

          Actually your data is old Larry. The gap is actually narrowing. With regard to your hard right realclearpolitics, I simply showed you several articles that state they have gone hard right. Now I know you are smart enough to realize a hard right polster will design a poll favorable to the right. And thus the numbers they collect will favor the right. That is all I am saying. It’s only propaganda in your mind.

          With regard to the PACs I mentioned, I am simply informing that they are mobilizing in the battleground states and are having an effect. And I do think they will have more of an effect as they gather steam. Not enamored, just reporting the facts so that folks have both sides of a story. I agree that Seneca Project is a David among the giant PACs that you mention. Your mistake is underestimating what a David can do when there are multiple Davids. It’s not naivete’, it is reality. More and more anti-Trump projects and PACs are popping up as they find out more about Trump’s agenda, and his Project 2025.

          My research is geared to check yours and to see if there is another side that you are not telling. This is how I make you better Larry ole son!!!

          Reply
          • Frank stetson

            Tom, ever notice how “actually” is the polite way of saying you’re freaking wrong…. And you used it teice 😁

            Wow, dud not know that about RCP but yeah, media bias confirms as does nyt and many others. A recent transition it seems and I have to wonder the profit in such a move.

            Thank God for Wimbledon. Enough of this crap. Been some great matches. Menendev vs Sinner, oh my. 60 years on tennis and I have never heard harder shots than the first set. Then they both throttled down drop exhaustion and unfortunately Sinner more so in the fifth. 30 shot rallys for these boys. Longest women’s match ever for uk .. And a 26 minute tiebreaker bringing pist old time tennis stamina. Amazing c

      • Joseph S. Bruder

        See the article about one of Trump’s allies assembling a hit list if Trump is elected. It just shows what kind of lawlessness felon Trump inspires:

        newrepublic.com/post/183652/trump-ally-exposed-horrific-hit-list-political-enemies

        It’s stochastic terrorism, folks. The one thing that felon Trump is really good at.

        Reply
        • frank stetson

          JSB: this is one of many “lists.” Elsewhere here I covered a 529 that Trump follows will put up the top 100 US Government upper mgt people that must go. It will go up the next day if Trump elected.

          Reply
        • Hammon

          There is no hit list you lying piece of shit. You motherfuckers can’t win on the issues. Lying is the key with you low life communist And if there were a hit list it’s the fucking commiecrats

          Reply
          • Frank stetson

            Hammon: the list I noted is from the American Accountability Foundation and funded by The Heritage Foundation. Do you want the project leader’s name or are you capable of doing the research?

            I don’t think they, or I, lied but appreciate your passion and color commentary. You can apologize for your rude, yet bogus assumption. If you are man enough. I hope so. .

  6. Joseph S. Bruder

    It’s funny that Larry has written a half-dozen articles about how old Biden is and how he needs to pull out of the race (for the good of the country, no less), and yet, old-as-dirt Larry (the same age as Biden, by the way) still thinks the Democrats of Chicago ca. 1950 are the same as the Democrats today. And that the felon-Trump Republicans haven’t taken up racist sexist misogynistic isolationist Hitler-style rhetoric.

    While Larry is calling for Biden to resign, he should put his money where his mouth is. I would give Biden a longer future as President than Larry as a political commentator.

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Joseph S Bruder …. In case you have not noticed, the major cities with the largest Black populations are still segregated with high unemployment, high rates of poverty, poor education (separate and unequal), high crime, inferior housing, limited economic development, etc. A lot of the same conditions that go back to Jim Crow. And Democrats have been running those cities for generations. It is NOT an old issue for people trapped in institutional racist policies — only for you elitist who only know that you read in newspapers. The book will be out in mid-August .. for the enlightenment of folks like you. You think I will not be around when Biden leaves office in a few months??? LOL

      Reply
      • frank stetson

        For years, I’ve been coming at the implausibility of the phenomena of so many blacks living in segregation in cities with substandard everything based on Democratic control and policies. I do believe the education is systemically racist, but that’s a factor of generally the same budgeting process, party independent, for all urban areas. I have asked for specific cause and effect of special policies, but gotten either lip service or generalities,

        It just seems implausible that Democratic and Republican urban policies differ to the point of Democrats bad, Republicans good. I am not actually sure how these urban policies differ or what advantages Republicans have brought to bear in real-time urban situations. Surely, there must be data. Also, the implausibility of blacks living in these conditions not saying: “screw this, I’m moving to Republican Miami.” I mean that’s as easy as travelling from Miami for an abortion, piece of cake. It just seems to me that if Republicans have this solved, have the evidence based on case studies as solving it, then why isn’t anyone else buying what they are selling?

        I think I wonder if this is not a case of correlation is not causation and that perhaps something else, like poverty and the inability to get fair pay against their white counterparts to get out of the poverty trap. As well as many other factors like education is a function of revenue support and poor people literally afford less beneficial education.

        But if it is causation, then the cure seems so simple and I wonder why Republicans cannot effectively make their case, get elected, and clean this mess up.

        Reply
    • Hammon

      Frank I don’t care if the article was from your mother’s asshole. It’s a damned lie

      Reply
  7. Frank stetson

    The Heritage Group and the American Accountability Foundation are from your side of the political aisle. I agree they are slime bag liars, but they are yours, not mine. Your liars not mine.

    Reply
    • Hammon

      They’re not my liars. Even Fox News has lying bastards. I don’t always agree with news max. I know that leftist propaganda gets spewed by most publications

      Reply
      • Frank stetson

        Whatever. They have the list. They will post it upon election. Trump can use it or not. Just like the Federalist Society created the list of judges Trump used.

        Believe what you will, but the groups exist, the lists exist and liberals, press or otherwise, have nothing to do with it.

        If you are a Trumplicant, you support these lists no matter what tou say you believe. ,

        Reply
        • Tom

          Steve Bannon agrees with you Frank. He said as much that they are targeting government employees that got to go. This means thee is a list. He also spoke of 20,000 ready to go people to take over the government and change the administrative state. Heritage is offering training right now.

          From their website, ““For decades, the administrative state has had a stranglehold on Washington and has weaponized its power against conservative presidents to stymie their agendas. No longer. Through the Presidential Administration Academy, the conservative movement will be better equipped than ever before to take power on Day One of the next administration.” for more see *https://www.heritage.org/press/project-2025-announces-latest-additions-presidential-administration-academy* .

          Reply

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  1. You want me to take a 4.5 hour drive for you? For what? Give us the location, row, section, etc.…

  2. FS, here you go again. You just cannot stand it that someone else has the intelligence to show proof. You…

  3. AF Way to stay on point. Where did this come up. This is debunked many tims. Joe did mot serve…

  4. Franky, baby, do you know what ID #267327344 is? Go to Arlington National Cemetary, you don't really live all that…

  5. AF, D, and JSB --- never trust dictation and tired old proofer's eyes. AF --- the crowd was meant to…