Can Trump still win?
In the spirit of “anything can happen,” the answer is “yes.” But if you look at the odds, the outlook is not so bright for Trump.
Experts on both sides of the political divide tend to agree on one thing – that if the election were today, President Trump would likely lose. Based on past elections, being behind at this stage is not a harbinger of what will happen when the votes are counted – including votes that are already being cast in the most extreme early voting states.
In the meantime, can Trump win over a few more undecideds – and some Democrats? Can he motivate his people to vote in greater numbers than the Democrats? Both efforts are important because there are officially more registered Democrats in America than Republicans.
Republicans can do well nationally because many people register as Democrats – and vote for local Democrats – but lean Republican in national elections. In the 1980s, they became known as “Reagan Democrats.” In 2016, they could have been called “Trump Democrats.”
Yes, it is possible for Trump to win re-election, BUT the odds continue to shift against him. Getting the few undecideds to come his way – and to attract a significant number of registered Democrats – Trump would have to change the current trajectory. In a normal year, that is very doable, but this is not a normal year.
Trump has two major challenges to overcome. It is safe to say that no President in American history – not even the much-maligned Abraham Lincoln – has had so much of the national media so vehemently and maliciously opposed to them. The most powerful print and electronic media outlets have undertaken an unprecedented partisan campaign to oust Trump.
Their news reports, their documentaries, their town hall meetings and their feature stories have all been corrupted – serving as massive commercials and infomercials on behalf of the Democratic Party and the left-wing agenda. Whatever one thinks of the Trump presidency, they should be deeply disturbed by the surrender of a free press to an elitist political faction with big government Big Brother authoritarian instincts. They are using Trump’s pugnacious personality to attain a tighter grip on America.
Unfortunately, Trump is providing them with ammunition. And that is the second obstacle to Trump’s gaining the lead in the coming month. It has always been about the Trump personality – those character traits that keep Trump voters like me wincing and ultimately holding our noses as we cast a ballot based on the all-important broader issues that separate the political parties.
One can dissect the various flaws in the Trump personality and character, but it can be summed up by a catch phrase that came out of the old – almost ancient – “Honeymooners” show starring Jackie Gleason as Ralph Kramden. Often when Kramden screwed up with his over-the-top belligerent personality (sound familiar?), he would yell out, “I HAVE A B-I-I-G MOUTH!”
Unlike Kramden, Trump has never confessed to his own screw-ups in such a manner – but they have mostly been due to his B-I-I-G MOUTH and his willingness to shoot it off as often as possible in front of cameras. As a result, the national media is running his more inaccurate and outrageous comments on continuous loop. Recently, Joe Scarborough, of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” ran repetitions of Trump’s most self-damaging comments for an entire show.
In the first year of Trump’s presidency, it was my public recommendation that he limit his exposure to the new media. Even then, it was obvious to me – and many others who made similar recommendations – that he would not be well served by presenting himself to the reporters so often.
Trump has provided the press with personal on-the-run briefings on an almost daily bases. No matter how many times he said he distrusted the media – and called them “fake news” – and no matter how unfairly and brutally they treated him, Trump would give them access and more grist for those mendacious narratives emanating from the media mill.
Because Trump did not take the advice of people like me, he provided the Democrats and the media a library of inept, inaccurate and head-scratching statements – even legitimate comments that may have changed as events developed — that are now being used against him.
Today, Trump faces a radical left Democratic Party, an elitist new media and a powerful bureaucratic establishment that are united and obsessed with removing Trump and Republicans from office at all costs (including promoting street violence) in order to go back to the business of growing an ever-more powerful central government in Washington.
Trump could have won that battle – and maybe still can. But the odds in his favor are diminishing. What can he now say or do to change the current trajectory? I do believe there is a way – but I am increasingly pessimistic that Trump can find it or will even look for it. I hope I am wrong.
So. There ‘tis.
I believe that Trump will win but never underestimate the stupidity of the American people. Many of them will vote for a retard like Biden even knowing that he’s not mentally or physically able for the job. I promise that I’ll NEVER comply with the commie socialist party. My family and I are preparing for the worst and praying for the best.
I stand with my President and I believe he will have four more years. “This seems like our last chance for our country to NOT BE A SOCIAL COUNTRY.”
I’m PRAYING DAILY FOR HIM AND OUR entire REPUBLICAN PARTY. Trump is an AWESOME PRESIDENT. PRAY, PRAY, PRAY!!! AND FOR GOD SAKE VOTE!!!
Even Michael Moore and Bill Maher are losing confidence in Biden. They said so after watching the GOP convention.
There is so much here that I hardly know where to begin. I do agree with Dan above that it is highly likely that Trump will win another 4 years, but that will be due to the stupidity of the American public that elected an entirely unqualified person to be president. Then there’s Larry’s assertions that the media is totally against trump, and incredibly you follow those statements up with “Trump is his his own worst enemy-he has a biig mouth”. Could it not possibly be that the media is simply reporting the day to day occurrences out of the funny farm in the WH as news (we know DT loves to see his name in print) rather than being against him? DT’s own words are a pretty good indictment against himself (as you point out Larry). Of course, my comments would be incomplete without pointing out “I told you so Larry” regarding Trump and the virus. Back when you were arguing that the response by the administration had been good, I pointed out how Trump had dithered for many weeks doing virtually nothing. Larry responded that Trump didn’t realize that the Trumpvirus was so deadly-that his medical advisors were telling him otherwise. At that time I said BS, but now we have DT’s own words saying that he knew it was bad in early-February. You are right Larry, Trump does have a big mouth, cause he makes you look like an idiot based on your earlier statements defending his response. So there tis, just the facts (and I am sure that there are plenty of fools out there who will continue to ignore the facts…)
Mike, It must be nice to be the smartest man in the world. Actually, you create your points by jumbling bits and pieces of irrelevant and unrelated points. Your contempt for half of America is is so typical of the obsessive Trump haters. What you see in my commentaries is called “objectivity” Go look it up in a dictionary. You say you did not know where to begin. Actually your problem is more like not knowing where to end.
Larry-My writing was an attempt to make you realize that the “facts” that you so glibly tout, are utter BS. I may not be the smartest man in the world, but I am smart enough to know a con when I see (or hear) it, which you obviously are not. DT has been conning people for 30 years, and for whatever reason his supporters are too ignorant to see it. He has been treated badly in the media because he is bad, not because he they are inherently against him. He has followed through on virtually none of his campaign promises, and those he has have left the country (and the world) in a mess. Build a wall-very little new construction, what was built was done using the military’s money, not Mexico’s as promised; cut the deficit to zero-instead it is rising over the Obama years every year he has been in office; 4% (or higher) growth rate-growth has been well under 3%, on a par with Obama years; better healthcare than Obamacare-that is a fiction that he repeatedly has lied about, the last time in late-July saying it would be rolled out in two weeks. And of course there are those trade wars that are easy to win-better check with the farmers that needed bailouts due to those trade wars as to the “ease” of winning. He did promise to remove us from the Iran nuclear agreement and the Paris accord-which he did, showing our allies that we were a negotiating partner that they could not trust from one administration to the next. So there tis, all you supporters are fools that are being conned into supporting an idiot-and it isn’t just because he has a biig mouth…
Larry-There is zero objectivity in your comments-if you were objective you would not have erased my previous reply to your comment. I realize you don’t like the facts regarding Trump’s failed presidency to be spelled out in your blog, but freedom of speech dictates you should let facts speak for themselves-which you don’t!
I guess I hit a nerve with you Larry in my comments, which I totally understand. If I had been supporting Trump’s virus response as you have, telling the world that his advisors were telling him “it really isn’t that bad “ and then he pulled the rug out from under me, telling a reporter that of course he had been told that it was really bad, I probably would be sensitive to critics too…
Mike what would a Biden presidency look like? Him sitting in his office drooling and probably cutting out paper dolls while the most commie leftist assholes pull his strings.
Your comments deserve no reply-I deal with facts, and if you are interested in facts (which I doubt after reading your comments) please read my response to the author above…
Mike did you used to post on the renewed right site? They stopped the comments from the readers. And yes, Biden is a moron.
I guess so…I am sure that my comments are unappreciated…
The President is his own enemy. He had everything back in January 20,2017 to become one of the greatest President in history, but he never knew how to surround himself with the best minds that were available to him. He is highly egocentric and believe he knows better than anyone else. He never learned how to use the power of the Presidency and his mouth became his worst enemy! In 2016 I really believe that he would make a huge difference because he was new in politics and I campaigned extremely hard for him. Now it’s a 50/50 chance of being re-elected? If he should lose, the Democrats will destroy him, his empire and even maybe his family! Even Kelly Ann is gone. Too bad for this great country! May God bless and save the Land of the Free and Home of the brave!
Mike mine was too. We might disagree but I would defend the rights of anyone to share their opinions. I was probably the most hated one on renewed right site. But I miss it. Remember Diane? She was a hoot. I drove her crazy.
For whatever reason, my rather lengthy reply to Larry now appears above-it details how DT has kept his promises (not)…
To Mike and Bernard. Ask yourself this question. How many more jobs and personal freedoms would be lost with joe and ho in the White House? And yes, Trump has and is keeping his promises. It’s a shame that the commiecrats colluded with China to unleash covid 19 just to destroy Trump. I have stated before that I would never comply with the commie agenda of the left.
Dan-If anyone colluded with China to unleash the trump virus, it is trump himself. Wake up. He told Woodward in early-February that the virus that now holds his name was really bad, but did nothing about it. Just think what could have been if we had started testing large numbers of people at that time, encouraged social distancing. We could have prevented the worst health crisis this country has seen in the last 100 years. But dumbshit didn’t want to rattle the booming stock market, so he lied to the American people. I’ll take my chances with Biden, who I suspect will at least listen to smart people, as opposed to someone who demands he be surrounded with psychophants that know nothing about the positions they have been chosen to lead.
Mike you’re as stupid as Biden.
Mike go ahead and vote for the retard and his token. Then you can kiss the energy independence good bye. That old fool will shut the country down again and kill our economy and our country. And yes, he’s in lock step with defunding the police. Do you think that he would be a leader? The radical leftist commie party will lead him by the seat of his pants. And his and Obama’s foreign policy? Don’t get me started. And didn’t slow joe stand in front of a camera and brag about threatening Ukraine to bail out his idiot son? Quid pro joe needs your help.
Yes Mike, Trump will win again. So cry yourself to sleep with that in mind. And keep reminding yourself what a fool that you are. Also I would like for you to explain what it is about socialism and communism that attracts you. Don’t you know that the democrat party stinks with Marxism? Or maybe you just don’t care. Check out the manifesto laid out by sleepy joe and commie Bernie. People like AOC and her bitch squad would be calling the shots. But don’t pay attention to me. Just keep on being a damned fool.
Throwing around the terms “socialism” and “communism “ to demonize the Democratic Party is just plain idiotic. We have no aspects of communism in the US, nor does joe biden advocate any. There are aspects of “socialism” in the US currently, and surprise-people love them and would fight if republicans decided to take them away. What are those? Why medicare and social security-both of those are “socialist” programs. So try to educate yourself before raving about the horrors of socialism just because thats what the three stooges on faux news have been spouting off about lately, cause socialism is already here and people love it!
Medicare and social security isn’t socialism. We pay into the funds you idiot.