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War with Russia seems inevitable, if the West is to win

War with Russia seems inevitable, if the West is to win

In a very real sense, the world democracies are already at war with Russia over Ukraine.  NATO, the European Union and other nations scattered around the world have united to sanction Russia and many of its leaders.  They have seized property.  They are taking in Ukrainian refugees.  They are providing humanitarian supplies. They are providing intelligence information.  They are training Ukrainian soldiers. They are committing a massive amount of military equipment.  And there are mercenaries from many western nations that have put boots on the ground in Ukraine.  Russian soldiers are dying from bullets provided by the west.

All the aforementioned responses have been in the form of “mission creep.”  The current level of sanctions was not imposed at the onset of the war.  They evolved.  Mission creep.  The decision to send heavier and more offensive weapons – including fighter jets –was not made initially.  Mission creep.  Western weapons were not used to attack inside Russia.  Now they are.  Mission creep.  Foreign mercenaries tacitly approved and supported by western nations were not involved in the early days of the war.  Now they are.  Mission creep.  The original goal was to deter Russian expansion.  Now the goal is to force Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory.  Mission creep.

The only element of war that is yet to be seen in Ukraine is the boots of western armies on the ground — and the pilots of western air forces in the air.  And without that, Russia is poised to win the war.

War with Russia seems inevitable because Putin has shown a willingness and ability to escalate his genocidal war against the Ukrainian people no matter how much the western response creeps short of boots on the ground.  AND …Putin has a LOT more escalating possibilities – more than the nuclear arsenal.

May 9th is Victory Day in Russia.  Putin is planning to have a major declaration of victory for the Russian people.  Certainly, he will brag about driving the “Nazis” out of Mariupol.  He will talk about the gains Russia has made on the ground.

But perhaps the most important announcement could be an official declaration of war on Ukraine.  So far, it is a “special Operation.”  So, what is the difference, you ask?  A BIG difference.  A declaration of war would enable Putin to call out the Russian reserves – adding tens of thousands of boots on the ground and a virtually unlimited amount of military equipment – second-rate as it may be – into the conflict.

Without the boots and the wings of western fighters, Putin would eventually take over all of Ukraine and Moldova – and move Russia from a second-rate nation with a pipsqueak dictator to leading military and economic force in the world with a powerful leader – malignant as he may be.  Most importantly, he would be a viable threat to the nations of eastern NATO – the old “captive nations” of Putin’s hibernating Soviet Union.

While there is a lot of talk about the necessity to defeat Russia, there is very little analysis of what that would take.  The tough talk is merely aspirational – lacking a plan and a commitment. That is because a defeat of Russia means regime change – and no one is willing to talk about that out loud.

So, there ‘tis.

Part 2 will deal with the advantages Russia would gain if Putin can take Ukraine and Moldova. It is more than geography.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.


  1. Tom

    I think you are giving Russia too much credit and NATO/US to little credit. Russia does not have as many as your analysis indicates to throw into Ukraine unless he wants to leave his country unprotected, not to mention no spare parts! And daily more keeps flowing into Ukraine from NATO including all of these drones that will wipe out much of that equipment before it gets very far into Ukraine. Also, I am sure that NATO/US has talked extensively about regime change and going into Russia and war with Russia – that is why it is so silent on the issue!! Its all about posturing – hoping Putin will believe NATO will not attack him or do anything, meanwhile building up equipment in border countries that will support the plans they are being silent about. IT will work for NATO to allow Putin to believe his illusions and grandiosity regarding the power of Russia. What you are calling creep I call evolution based on fact and data as well as successes on the ground. NATO needed to make sure Ukrainians would really fight well and keep the high tech stuff from being captured by Russian forces. They have proven all they have to about their abilities, now the weapons will flow to them and to neighboring countries for storage until needed. To me, the turtle appears to be winning the race.

    • larry Horist

      I hope your are right about the “turtle” winning the race. But what is your definition of winning? Russia is held to the land they currently occupy? No reparations? Lifting sanctions? I see victory as removing Russian troops from ALL of Ukraine. Russia pays reparations. And most of the sanctions stay in place. Regime change would be nice … but that can be optional. Can you define you vision of victory?

  2. MikefromTexas

    I say stop russia with everything.

  3. Joe

    That senile,racist,frail,old puppet,fool,dementia,joe,has already opened that pie hole, of his to much, and threatened Putin, by saying he can’t stay in power.Putin and the american people feel the same way about corrupt,joe biden and his cartel family. He needs to shut up,before he pokes the bear one to many times and get us nuked. He is totally incompetent, and he is messing with a very dangerous man, that is as irrational as hidenbiden, and his minions.

  4. Frank stetson

    If war is inevitabe if west is to win, then America loses if we sue for peace?

    IMO, stay the course, enlarge and buttress nato, try to strangle russian oil n gas, steal their money for reparations, keep hacking their data, and kill a few more generals.

    • Waylon

      America and Russia are like two big men challenging each other. One’s scared and the other is glad of it