Trump defeats Biden

In the 1948 presidential race, the Chicago Tribune printed one of the greatest errors in journalism when the morning headline read “Dewey defeats Truman.”  In an effort to get ahead of the competition, the Tribune printed that headline based on polling and early election reports. 

If President Biden withdraws, the headline atop this commentary will be one hundred percent accurate.  President Trump will have forced Biden out of the race because he has been determined to be a sure loser by virtually every major leader and donor in his Democratic Party – and most of the left-wing media.  Trump WILL have beaten Biden – not in the election but because they threw in the towel in the face of a terrible beating.

If Biden resists the seemingly insurmountable pressure to pass the baton, whether Trump beats Biden in November is an unresolved question, but not a completely unforeseen outcome.  The fact is that many top Democrat leaders believe Biden will surely lose – and lose so badly that he will cost Democrats the Senate … surrender any hope of taking control of the House … and kick off a tsunami of Democrat losses downstream.  That is not my assessment, but the predictions of the most knowledgeable people in the Democratic Party – the people who are letting it be known to Biden and the American people that they want him out … period.

And why not?

According to most polls, Biden was losing to Trump before that disastrous debate – and the less than dynamic post-debate appearances.   His favorability numbers are at historic lows.

Team Biden hangs their arguments on the fact that the national polls show him in a tight race at the national level – usually 52 to 48 in favor of Trump.  Biden points to 14 million Democrats who voted for him in the primaries – and the thousands of delegates poised to make him the official Democrat standard bearer at the August Democratic National Convention.  His two major campaign issues are all he claims to have accomplished in the past four years – and the alleged existential danger of a Trump presidency.

None of those taking points will save his candidacy.

The national polls mean nothing.  The winner is determined in the Electoral College with the battleground states being the most important races.  Biden is doing worse in the battleground states – and many previously believed to be safe Biden states have slipped into battleground states.

Even worse is that political insiders do not rely on public polls as much as the so-called “internals.”  While those polls are rarely reported in detail in the media, insiders see them and study them on a daily basis. Based on the almost universal pressure on Biden to withdraw in the face of public statements of a pending electoral disaster, one can assume that those internal polls are very bad news for Biden and Democrats.

With regard to all he claims as his accomplishments, they are meaningless even if true.  That is then and this is now.  As one pundit put it, Tom Brady was a superhuman quarterback in the past … but no longer can play football.  The age issue is unbeatable.  Biden’s problem is the perception of his current and future abilities – or disabilities.

With regard to the number of Democrats who voted for him in the primaries, there is obvious buyers’ remorse.  We see that in the fact that polls show that 66 percent of Democrat voters want Biden to withdraw.

His ace in the hole is the convention delegates.  Biden has them — and unless he quits, they will make him the Democrat candidate.

Bidne’s accomplishments in his first terms is a meaningless argument.  After pointing to them for more than a year, Trump still maintained a modest lead in the poll – and a substantial lead in Biden’s signature accomplishment – Bidenomics.  Of all the issues –economics, inflation, immigration, crime, foreign policy – Trump trumps Biden.  Biden’s only popular issue is abortion.

And the number one campaign strategy – to demonize Trump, Republican officeholders and voters as part of some conspiracy that poses and existential threat to the Republic has failed despite all the baggage Trump carries.  Arguably, the strategy to make Trump the personification of evil has not only failed, but it has backfired.

These are unprecedented times.  Never before has a presumptive standard bearer been kicked to the curb because they did not look like a potential winner so late in the game.

Ironically, if Biden does step aside, all the elements of a potentially winning campaign are thrown into uncertain chaos, with a potential for a disastrous defeat in November  Democrats may rue the day they booted Biden even if he looked like a loser at this point in time.

So, there ‘tis.