Tennessee: A GOP Win That Feels Like a Warning

The election in Tennessee’s 17^th Congressional District gave both sides reason to celebrate – and both sides reason to be disappointed.  Republican Matt Van Epps won the special election, but Democrat Aftyn Behn’s strong showing revealed a growing Democratic surge that should worry the GOP heading into 2026.

Close only counts in horseshoes.  In politics, a win is a win. On paper, Republicans have reason to celebrate Van Epps’ victor.  He not only kept the seat for the GOP, but he prevented the Republicans razor-thin narrow margin in the House from becoming even more narrow.  Winning is always better than losing. 

But … there is another side of the story.  Donald Trump carried this district by 22 points in 2024. Van Epps had a 9-point win over Behn, a Democratic state representative who ran a grassroots campaign that shifted the district 12 points to the left. That is not just a moral victory for Democrats—it’s a flashing red warning sign for Republicans.

Democrats’ Moral Victory

Behn’s loss was narrow enough to make Democrats giddy.  In a district long considered safely Republican, she managed to cut Trump’s margin by more than half. Democrats are calling this a “dramatic overperformance”.  That is a bit hyperbolic in view of the facts that it was unlikely that any GOP candidate could have matched Trump’s numbers in a midterm election — and previous elections saw even close numbers.  When Marsha Blackburn ran for the Senate in 2018, she carried the district by less than one percent. 

Democrats poured millions of dollars into the race – more than is normally the case.  On the other hand, Behn’s was not the best candidate to field.  Her extremely radical views were wildly unpopular – and negative comments about Christianity, Nashville and country music were nothing less than political malpractice. 

This is not an isolated case of growing Democrat strength.  Across the country, Democrats have been overperforming in special elections, flipping — or nearly flipping — seats that Republicans once considered untouchable. The Tennessee race fits neatly into that trend.

The 2026 Midterm Implications

With less than a year until the 2026 midterm elections, this race is another data point in a troubling trend for Republicans. Democrats need only a handful of seats to retake the House – which I believe they are on track to do.  The only issue in my opinion is the number of seats Democrats will flip.  If they can make serious inroads in places like Tennessee’s 7th District, Democrats could pick up seats in the double-digits.

Trump and the GOP face a steep hill to climb. The Tennessee result shows that even in districts where Trump dominated, Democrats are closing the gap.   However, there is a difference between the here-and now and the future.  Anything can happen in the future.  Republicans could regroup, Democrats could stumble, and unexpected events could reshape the landscape.  As of now, however, the Tennessee special election is a win for the GOP.  What it means for future elections is speculative. 

So, there ‘tis.