Election Status: Which states matter and how Trump will probably win
The latest polls from CNN and Real Clear Politics show President Trump on a clear path to victory while his opponent’s campaign is losing momentum.
Here are CNN’s top 10 battleground states followed by that state’s electoral votes and current status (all 10 states are within CNN’s margin of error and all but one state voted for Trump in 2016):
- Arizona (11): Biden is slightly in the lead.
- Florida (29): Guaranteed Trump victory (we know because we live here).
- Georgia (16): Probable Trump victory.
- Michigan (16): Biden is in the lead; Trump is catching up.
- Minnesota (10): Biden is slightly in the lead.
- North Carolina (15): A dead heat.
- Ohio (18): Biden is slightly in the lead.
- Pennsylvania (20): Biden is in the lead; Trump is catching up.
- Texas (38): Trump is slightly in the lead and is gaining momentum.
- Wisconsin (10): Biden is slightly in the lead.
The Trump campaign has spent more money than Biden on ads in Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while Biden’s campaign has spent more money than Trump on ads in the other five states. Overall, Biden has spent more money on ads in the 10 battleground states with an investment of $183 million compared to Trump’s $158 million.
Both campaigns have dumped considerable funds into Pennsylvania (Trump $33M and Biden $44M) and Florida (Trump $33.5M and Biden $42M), two swing states with high numbers of electoral votes.
We can expect Trump to win Florida, but Pennsylvania could go either way. Both candidates have made appearances in Pennsylvania recently, with Biden misleading voters by claiming he won’t ban fracking if elected (more on that here). And the Trump campaign has the opportunity to use Kamala Harris’ words that she absolutely would ban fracking.
Additional battleground states (as listed by RCP):
- New Mexico (5): Biden is solidly in the lead.
- Colorado (9): Biden is solidly in the lead.
- Virginia (13): Biden is solidly in the lead.
- Nevada (6): Biden slightly in the lead.
- Maine (4): Biden is solidly in the lead.
- New Hampshire (4): Biden is solidly in the lead.
- Iowa: Trump is slightly in the lead.
It’s important to remember that the Trump campaign won’t spend its resources on states that it knows it can’t win (i.e. California and New York). These massive populations will be skewed Democrat because that’s the only message they are getting. As a result, national polls will not reflect the status of the election. And his lack of attention in these states could easily cause him to lose in the popular vote and win on electoral votes. (And, as Trump has said before, if he needed to win the popular vote, he would have campaigned differently and still would have won.)
Aside from the battleground states, Biden has spent roughly $5 million on ads in red states (compared to Trump’s $18.7 million) and Trump has invested $26.8 million on ads in blue states (compared to Biden’s $25.8 million).
The Trump campaign has far outspent Biden on nationwide ads and digital ads, investing $124 million and $152.9 million, respectively, compared to Biden’s $38.4 million and less than $76 million. Both candidates have spent more money on TV and radio ads in battleground states than on digital ads.
Editor’s note: Both candidates have decent war chests at this point. I’m willing to bet that the debates will be a crucial factor in this election, perhaps more than ever. Biden’s performance to this point has been weak, and the mainstream media is not challenging him.