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Who Can Unite the GOP? Anyone?
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Division is never good for marriages and political parties. Abraham Lincoln lifted a biblical admonishment that a “house divided cannot stand.” And then there is that old truism, “united we stand, divided we fall.”
Make no mistake about it. Heading into the 2024 presidential election, Democrats are essentially united, and the Republicans are not. That means Democrats have a cohesive and simple message, and Republicans do not.
There is not likely to be a divide in the Democratic Party as we saw in 2016 and 2020 – with the Bernie Sanders faction of the Party in direct conflict with the old guard establishment. That will not be the case this season. Without a dramatic turn of events, President Biden will enjoy a coronation rather than a competitive contest. As long as he is able to wheeze and wabble, he will be nominated for a second term.
That is not the case with the Republican Party. It is deeply divided – and not just in two. The GOP is suffering from three major fractures.
There are those dedicated to President Trump – the MAGA crowd. MAGA has become an enduring label for those supporting the former President and a pejorative for those who hate him – Democrats and some Republicans.
The latter comprises the second faction – and it is composed of two sub-groups. Those who remain in the party – but will not support Trump as the nominee under any circumstances – and those who left the GOP to join the Democrats or become so-called independents.
The third faction is those who are members of the Republican Party in good standing – and will support the Republican nominee no matter who it is as the better choice or the lesser of two evils. They, too, are divided into two categories – those who are Republican loyalists, period … and those who are loyal to conservative principles above partisanship. Those who will distinguish between far left-wing Democrat policies and conservative policies are best represented by a Republican President. (By way of disclosure, I am in the latter group).
It seems clear that if the nominee is not Trump, a portion of the MAGA crowd will stay home on Election Day or skip the top of the ticket. If Trump should be the nominee, a lot of the second faction will skip voting or even cross over and cast their ballot for Biden.
Unless someone can achieve general appeal among the factions – essentially uniting the Party – the GOP will lose the 2024 election. The nation’s voters are so evenly divided that neither party can afford to lose support at the ballot box. Division makes the get-out-the-vote efforts even more challenging.
So, who is out there on the Republican side who can unite the GOP – at least enough to win the election? Damned if I know. In the current pantheon of potential Republican candidates, there is no one person who demonstrates that ability. That does not mean that there are no unifiers among the group. There are a number of POTENTIAL unifiers. However, the question is: Will they rise to that?
First, we have to admit that Trump cannot – or will not (it makes no difference) – be that unifier. He bears some responsibility for the current division — more or less, depending on your view of him. At this juncture, it is hard to imagine that he can pull in a enough voters to win a General Election in 2024. Okay, nothing is impossible, but the impossible does not happen a lot.
Of course, a lot of folks are looking to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to be the guy. He could – unless he gets painted into the MAGA corner. Staking a firm claim in any of the three factions is a receipt for defeat. It is what a unifier does NOT do.
As much as I like DeSantis, I am concerned that he is taking up residency in the hardline MAGA faction. It may have less to do with policies than rhetoric – how he talks about his policies. And also, how his enemies talk about them. There is no doubt the left-wing media sees DeSantis as a threat. That is why he is getting the one-sided prosecutorial treatment from the left-wing media – almost as much as Trump.
Any who follows DeSantis knows that he is not Trump – not in personality, demeanor, veracity, and politics. As voters get to know him – as they do in Florida – he could become the pre-emptive candidate for Republicans.
There are other potential GOP candidates who could bridge the gaps in the Republican Party – and be a unifier. They have yet to develop a national public image, so we do not know how they will roll out to the public. Among those are former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, and others.
I am not sure that Vice President Pence can be a unifier. Not that he does not have the right instincts, but he has been too entwined in the issues that have divided the nation. There are too many in the GOP – and in the country in general – who have formed a dislike for the guy, whether he deserves it or not.
There is one guy who is not in the race – and may not ever be – who connects well with the public. I have seen him on several news shows, and he comes across as well-informed and highly credible. That guy is John Bolton, the former White House National Security Adviser. Most of the public have no fixed image of him. He is relatively unknown to the voting public.
But if Bolton gets into the race – and voters get to see more of him – he could end up being an attractive candidate to a broad spectrum of the public. Yes, he is a very dark dark horse at this time, but that can change. He is in no more unlikely a position than were Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton in the early days of their presidential bids – or even Trump. Bolton would be my wild card pick.
In addition to “who” can unite the GOP, the question is “how?” I think you go back to the Ronald Reagan model. He was also one of the most demeaned presidential candidates. He was said to be too far to the right … too crazy … too out of touch … too dangerous. So unacceptable – so they said – that President Carter and the Democrats hoped and prayed he would be the Republican nominee. They got their wish, but it did not turn out as they expected.
Reagan not only defeated an incumbent President – he was only one of the 14 (out of 46) presidents to serve two full terms. And in his second run, he carried 49 of the 50 states with a landslide popular vote of 59 percent. It seems logical that Republican presidential candidates should at least study Reagan – his policies and personality – to divine what made his so popular and such a unifier with the American people.
I can offer a few hints. He never viciously attacked his opponents personally – and most certainly not his fellow Republicans. In fact, he proffered the 11th Commandment … never speak ill of a fellow Republican. He spoke proudly of the American people as an exceptional political culture. And he never attacked the symbols of unity – the flag, the National Anthem, and the Pledge of Allegiance.
He had a sense of humor with an iconic smile – and never a sneer. He presented positive programs and proposals without characterizing the opposition’s platform as un-American and evil – just wrong. He never viewed Democrat voters as stupid, cultists and dangerous to the Republic. Reagan unified the nation because he constantly spoke of the goodness of all the American people without dividing them into warring tribes.
I think the American people are craving a return to civility, decency, and veracity in our political dialogue – and the candidate who provides that will win them over and restore America’s cultural unity.
So, there ‘tis.
“Heading into the 2024 presidential election, Democrats are essentially united, and the Republicans are not. That means Democrats have a cohesive and simple message, and Republicans do not.”
Whenever you hear a modifier like “essentially” you just know it means maybe, maybe not…. Wasn’t it just last week that Joe Biden was too old to run? Has something changed this week? Oh yeah, Republicans went off the rails…..again….. Investigations brings out the best in people, folks have announced/visited Iowa against Trump, and DeSantis stepped into a pile of Ukraine, to name a few….
But Democrats are in the same rowboat, all pulling on the oars in the same way? NBL.
Most Democrats do not want Biden to run; that seems to leave a door open. Biden has not picked a successor, too late now probably, so that door seems closed. The only question is: can we find someone new who looks like a younger, smarter, less stuttering Joe and can raise enough hoopla (and money) to give a good primary shot?
I like Mayor Pete but probably too young, too green, and too gay – not that there’s anything wrong with that, just a harder elective row to hoe. Plus he would lose his current job…. Sanders, too old. Warren – too Hillary… Harris — fuhgit about it. Many of the rest just have too much baggage.
Progressives did not get what they want from Biden, they got something, but not near enough. Some may even feel lied to. But I agree that a progressive candidate probably can’t get traction especially from the squad – too green.
But a younger candidate could gain traction, especially a likeable, glib, experienced one not known on the national stage — like a DeSantis but with a woke FDR twist.
No, I think Democrats still got some talkin to do. The Party has not got much choice than to support Biden, what else can they do?
If he runs, and it sure looks like he will, will anyone take him on? We may have more cohesion than the GOP, but we are not without our faults that could turn into an earthquake in the primaries. IMO, I think Newsome could take a shot at it, could garner money and fame, and might win. He’s got my vote over Joe in a heartbeat.
My call (and prayer) would be someone like Gavin Newsome, a newcomer with a gift of gab that, like DeSantis, is popular in his home state and embraces the core Democratic Party ideals. And he’s photogenic! I think he could make a run at it.
Larry, I think you are overestimating the togetherness that Democrats are trying to project. A significant number of them do not want Biden to run again. And if he does not run, then the divide gets deep. There are several scenarios that could unite GOP. My favorite is Trump being indicted and/or in jail for tax evasion and paying hookers to shut up, and DeSantis is the defacto GOP choice and he says if he becomes president he will forgive Trump. LOL
Again, Independents / Unaffiliated voters will be key and few are listening to them. The block of Independent / Unaffiliated voters is much larger than the block of Trump loyalists whom might stay home. DeSantis would be smart to moderate his tone a bit and address Independents / Unaffiliated voters more, and run as a moderate to slightly right on issues in the coming year.
I think you are right on target with your Reagan comments. Studying his model would do the GOP tons of good, and would show how much of an oaf Trump really is! I think your hints are spot on! Your hints are good for any GOP candidate, or Dem candidate. What GOP needs to do is practice Reagan’s popular saying, “There you go again Joey!” LOL Or should he say, “There you go again, Brandon!” The later would inject comd
I disagree with you on Bolton. He definitely has some smarts but he does have a reputation. I would probably vote for Biden before voting for Bolton. The rest are weak in my mind but I would give Pompeo a look. I do not think Pence is viable but at least we know he would run government by the book, and who knows, if elected he may be able to get a federal program through to reform homosexuals and those affected by gender dysphoria disorder. What would destroy the GOP would be if Manchin would run. GOP best pray that he does not run.
I do disagree with you in one respect. DeSantis does have the bully gene, but he also has more polish. I do think it is interesting how the media is making DeSantis the preemptive candidate. So I think you are right about DeSantis residing in MAGA camp – they want a MAGA camp challenger. Someone who is moderate GOP could actually unify the GOP and steal Reagan Dems and get most “so called” Independents / Unaffiliated voters.
I do agree with your comments on Reagan. GOP would be wise to study his model and take your hints to heart. Modeling Reagan would be one way to show the Trumpers just how much of an oaf their Donald is. Additionally, I think they should understudy his famous quip, “There you go again Walter!” Only change the name to Joey or Brandon. I think Brandon would really resonate with Trumpers and provide comedy for all of us, and we like comedy in our political debates!
And I agree, we Independents / Unaffiliated voters would definitely like to see cultural unity. First we will have to define what our culture is, and then fold everyone into it.
Larry, maybe you are that GOP unifier!! Please consider a run. I would vote for you.
I must ask you, what do you mean by the label “so called independents”?
I cannot find anything on the registration form for voting where there is a category called “so called independents”. I can find a category called “Independent / Unaffiliated”.
I am an Independent / Unaffiliated voter. This means I am disconnected from a political party. An independent voter can hand-pick a candidate based upon their positions on various issues rather than based on their political party. So I seek to disconnect people from party (il.e. voting by party loyalty) and reconnect them to political issue positions that do the greatest good for the greatest number of Americans. Probably our greatest attribute is our ability to split our ticket.
When you say “so called independents” it sounds like a backhanded slap at those that do not blindly follow a party idiology and rather prefer to think for themselves. That is how voting was at the start of this great country. Parties did not come into existence until early 1800’s. So maybe we are the “True American Voters”, and the rest of you are “so called American voters”. Your thoughts?
Tom …Democrats have some difference in views — including on the question of Biden running again … BUT they will all be in lockstep if he does. Just as the differing view among Dems in Congress are not seen with the vote is taken.
Yes I sort of think you are right there. “All for party and party for all” kind of motto. But some of them are up for re-election and there are some issues dogging them that being for Biden will not help. I guess if you are not for Biden you just shut up. I wonder how Frank thinks on this. I see serious cracks. And I ain’t a’talkin low riding pants!
Tom … As a long time political advisor, I base my strategies on the one-third formula. One third Dem … one third GOP and one thirds Indy. that proportion may vary from election to election, but you get the point, AND … I examine the Indy vote with a similar calculation — one third Dem, one-third GOP, and one-third swing voters. Most Indy voters lean — and usually fall the way the lean. That is why we use five columns to estimate the vote …. Hard Dem … Lean Dem … Undecided (Indy) … lean Rep … hard Rep.
Larry,
Good to know unification is even in the Republican lexicon. Also, GTK how the Republicans’ situation currently stands looking toward the ‘24 election season from a conservative loyal Republican’s perspective .
I am sure your commentaries in the next year plus will have updates on the race. Reports on both party’s progress in the run up to each party’s candidate nomination, debate between GOP contenders, Party Primary elections, Candidate Debates, the Election ‘24 itself and prognostication on all through out. Because, your perspective delivered through an opinion commentary lays out the case on the political right’s view. Albeit, by your own admission, a view not held in common within a splintered GOP.
Still GTK info (Republican Party intelligence), grist for the objective critically thinking, truth finding, central facts controlling, and context including apolitical mill for decision making. Partisan political bias separated out as chaff, unreliable probable political party purposed propaganda.
Put in perspective , when reflection on the whole array of intel sought for consideration purposes is of maximum importance. PBP, hence your commentary, is one of several included.
My belief is that the decision mill requires info from perspectives and conclusions made by a broad spectrum of people. All are human beings equal and worthy of being listened to and heard.
Democratic consideration that we all are equals under the law justly deserve our being listened to, at the least. Being heard should follow. That being heard out piece in true democratic consideration just happens to be the reason why, the crux, and the bottom line for us all.
Good is a democratic policy in idea and written into letter of the law status. Excellent is that policy put into practice justly in cases of those who are the least among all Americans are allowed equal hearing and consideration to those enjoying most entitled status.
Natural human nature runs counter to equal democratic consideration. American culture employs our own brand of a de facto caste system. Walls and ceilings the “system” erected keep individuals in generational confinement. Caste designation has several conditions; gender(female), race, national origin, sexual orientation, religion, physical appearance , physical handicap/ disability, mental capacity/disability, and more. This, a caste, division is real life. It’s systemically ratified. And, denying it exists as a stain ( one of many denied) on our nation makes hypocrites of the population’s large majority .
Commentary and commentators both right and left are heard in writings and in video decrying society’s failures while pointing at the others’ short comings and inaction. Inaction must lay at the feet of both political parties’ lack of legislation initiated and past in to law. Laws on the books now are ignored or in the process of repeal or amending. Actions begun in secret behind closed doors.
Ultimately, society should not require specific laws that regulate members’ individual behavior down to the smallest detail.
Organizations large to small, leaders in private, public, and elected positions, media persons., people in the journalism trade all inhabit a place of responsibility to an audience. Their degree of reverence dedicated to an oath taken or an assumed professional charge understood is a tell.
Lands open to the public for personal investigation visits, recreation, leisure, and sight seeing have signs posted that forbid littering, ,National Parks Service demands its visitors abide by their policy of leave no trash behind (carry in, carry out). Fines or expulsion are the consequences for littering, defacing anything, unsafe behavior, and public nuisance activity. In all National Parks I have seen all these wrongs having been done and experienced park visitors behaving in unsafe and disorderly destructive ways. These behaviors take away others’ expected enjoyment experience
Public standards for ethics and morality gain standard status with individuals in positions with public visibility reiterating and personally modeling high ethical and moral behavior. No less should be expected of folks anywhere not only out in public places.
Larry, you go in for the occasional biblical sage piece of advice. “You are your brothers’ keeper” follows on the heals of another often repeated words of biblical attribution. Common parlance translation comes as The Golden Rule. “Do you not unto others that which you would not have others do unto you”. This Rule has often been mangled in translated intent and decreed by one to another in disparaging anger.
So, it is for biblical truism. Plucked out of context as one cherry is picked from a tree abundant with cherry crop. Although, even one word of wisdom excised from the Holy Bible implanted into a wholly non-sacred text is preferential to none at all, provided source credit is included
And now my GOP musings…..only because Larry can not wait not to respond :>)
IMO, in the age of Trumpism, the GOP has remade itself by merging a number of demographics, a number of which might be described as disenfranchised splinter groups that now the party caters to creating the whole. Maga-rats, tea partiers, various hate groups, probably a few survivalists, blue collar, rural non-college types, monied fat cats, RINOs, all are vocal components of the GOP whole today. In short RINOS, weasels, and rats. Sorry, but not much respect now except for the true Republicans of old, but even there, not until they take a stand and take back the party.
Pence is a good example; where does he get off blaming Trump for a dangerous 1.6.2021 tourism malfunction after two years of ducking for cover? Patriot for a day? A minute? He may be a true Republican, but really Mike, when are you going to stand up. They put your family in danger — you had to wait two years and then you could only be a man behind closed doors at a private function?
The vocal core of the Republican party is still the magarats, Trumplicants, whatever. They may be just a slice but they are a big slice of vocal, demonstrative, and active supporters. Athletic supporters you might say. They know how to change primaries, they know they can change them — just can’t win the big ones anymore.
You can see folks like DeSantis bending towards that flame with his fake culture war publicity policy stunts and his recent wild Ukrainian extraction silliness. They know they will be supported by the silent majority, the enablers, the moderates, the folks we used to call Republicans who today say things like “I don’t like the man, but the I love the policies.” These folks can not muster the strength to take back their party and basically stand quiet against the lies, uncivility, and reckless behaviors of Trumpism. They rarely push back against Trump or Trumpism. Reagan be a twisting in his grave. The other slices are small but important pieces, niche like, but still need attention. Trump caters to the proud oath keeping freedom forces of light and white while others seem to give a silent nod. These folks give the wacky GOP it’s fringe, and many are willing to siege where others have never insurrected before.
The party of George Will will willingly toss George under the bus now. Fuckin RINO.
And so, IMO —–
Trump – the weakened ex-President looks worse every day but will take down all that he can before he goes. Fox dumped him, DeSantis and others are taking potshots, and the legal crap is a closing in. SDNY is a nothing burger, his whorish payments are a family problem and a wrist slap, Republicans don’t care about that stuff for their man anymore. But a loss will be a lost. And Georgia is an election killer and the Federal stuff coming thereafter is a tragic opera in the making. Close to 1,000 arrested, heads will have to roll and a walk through the Meadows will not suffice. It’s Yellowstone time and someone is going to the train station. A one man wrecking crew, Trump is destroying the concept of Republican and Republicans won’t take a stand to stop it. They deserve it for standing quiet because they like the policies. We would hate it if he runs. No matter how small the risk of losing or even having him be able to run, the risk of his retribution and the further destruction of Democracy won’t make America great, ever.
DeSantis – I disagree. I see DeSanctimonious as Trump in a better fitting suit — always have. He plays to the same slices. All of them. He adds no more inclusion to the Republican Party than Trump. Yes, Florida loves him but folks have been wrong before and I just think he needs a little more light aimed at his performance there. For example, his covid response is poor even if FL thinks different. Most of his stunts bear no fruit and just cost Florida tax dollars. To date though, he is our greatest fear because he’s got the checkboxes nailed, he’s professional, and he is marketing himself quite well. His penchant for PR is now legendary, his polices flamboyant, all for show to garner support. And it seems to be working. Now facing his first challenge – Ukraine withdrawal – we’ll see how he holds his composure against national exposure and can he muster that ole Reagan Teflon bluster perfected by Bill Clinton. Since his policies are moralistic clap trap, yeah, this is the one that scares me. If he was more moderate less culture clubbish, I might vote his way.
IMO, DeSanctimonious is queen of the pigs in a broken party desperately needing but not finding their path forward bringing folks into the tent instead of just attacking anyone outside the tent, or even in the tent, but not in total lockstep, especially on the culture war crap.
As to the others: Mike Pompeo, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, and others — maybe Noem as an unknown, but Pompeo – no way, damaged goods. Ernst, stringent policies but no negative shots below the water line, could take a shot at it. Pence – sorry, but the more he speaks about 1.6, the deeper it gets, he’s toast. Bolton, can’t get off the blocks, folks on all sides want to shoot him down. Yet another guy who promises to set you free IF you just buy his book. Not many guys can be a traitor to both parties….
What about: Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Corey Stapleton. How can they be left out now that they are actually running? Haley is damaged goods now too, no one knows where she stands — too bad, I thought she might better bridge that chasm tween the parties. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Folks, you got to take a stand. The others are unknown but signal that more may be coming from left field, if you can say that when talking Republican….
“I think the American people are craving a return to civility, decency, and veracity in our political dialogue – and the candidate who provides that will win them over and restore America’s cultural unity.” Hmmm, shining light on a hill? Let it start at home, at PBP…good luck with holding to that. That’s some motherhood and apple pie, but really? Republicans craving civility, decency and veracity? Wouldn’t that be Mitt RINO Romney? I mean Trump just announced his top priority: retribution. I think he has veracity on that point. That’s the Republican Party, the Retribution Party. That’s the core, the vocal core, and he’s the poll leader thus far. Given Trump is in the race, you can kiss Larry’s thought goodbye. The pig is back, long live the pig, it’s wallow time. You can dress it up……
One of the most important Presidential issues is where the candidates stand on Ukraine.
So far we have poured nearly 200 billion dollars into the war, but Zelensky just keeps asking for more.
“Speaking at a press conference on Feb. 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened that “the US will have to send their sons and daughters to war” if more aid for his country were not forthcoming.”
Alt-left mainstream media are propaganda outlets. They care less about facts and more about spreading opinions.
Democrats can not balance a budget and Newsom is in the process of mismanaging California to to point of bankrupting it (ie: SVB).
Middle-of-the-road/left leaning RINO (Republican In Name Only) Network FOX asked the leading Republicans where they stand on the issue of Ukraine.
Neo-Cons Bolton and Haley failed to respond to the FOX query.
Pence is unelectable.
The other Republican presidential candidates or possible candidate answers are on Twitter IN THEIR OWN WORDS.
Unlike what you will find on Alt-Left mainstream propaganda networks.
Bear in mind the objective is to avert war, not escalate it as the Democrats seem to want, as Russia and the United States are nuclear powers.
Quit your bellyachin’
Larry
What is Trump’s game now? Again, he has put a call to his faithful. All kind of ridiculous nonsense reportedly coming from him on his Truth Social.
He says Tuesday the DOJ is going to pick him up.
His convoluted money shuffle of 130 g’s in quiet
money paid Ms S. Danials appears like a smoke screen diversion.
His receding into the country’s political rear view may yet happen. At this time, if his star is falling to the rear, it’s backing in ultra slow.motion.
When he gets beat out of the nomination and afterwards another meltdown and sulking period.
That will see him off and come into rear view.
His MAGA Party will surely carry on post-Trump.
AC, Trump is following his plan consisting of the three p’s. Prosecution, Persecution, and Presidency. He seeks the Presidency to avoid Prosecution and begin his Persecution. Known as the Retribution Tour, his team for some time has been planning what to do when indicted to gain favor, donations, and fealty. This is the fealty phase. It starts with Trump doing his 1.6.2021 incitement thang playing the victim before the hammer even falls. He social media’s his personal request: “PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!” Close to 1,000 1-6-ers sighed “that’s what he told us…..”
He needs the Presidency to avoid Prosecution and begin his Persecution of his enemies. After the tweet, team Trump went into action to force fealty amongst Republicans by having them declare support for him as the victim of an evil, partisan, legal system following the rule of law. He even asked DeSantis to weigh in; the D-man has demurred thus far. But he got McCarthy’s payback as Kevin declared he would bring the full weight of Congress against this evil prosecutor. Be clear: the party of personal responsibility and state’s rights wants the Federal Government to launch an investigation against a local crime…. The man is unhinged. I am betting even his kids avoid Mar A Loser now. He probably stumbles around mumbling “I get them, my pretties,” under his breadth….
This is the plan, to use his victim status to force fealty by making folks respond to his request to avoid personal responsibility. His team is already busy demanding Republicans to take a stand. Most will cave and rally round him as McCarthy has. Even lowly enablers like Larry will weigh in, probably on Trump’s side. It’s pretty carefully orchestrated with Trump pre-empting the Manhattan Prosecutor, a Democrat, knowing that the Prosecutor will not respond as a matter of policy and process, to elicit support amongst all Republicans. All that’s missing is having them sign an oath of allegiance……