The Secret Russia Doesn’t Want to Reveal Yet
We have already told you how the Russian invasion of Ukraine will play out (End of the Russian Invasion – The Script Complete), and we have been correct at every stage so far. Russia is engaged in “aggressive negotiations.” Ukraine will move quickly to make good on Zelenskyy’s effective surrender to avoid continued pounding.
In mulling this over with PBP contributor George McMillan, and studying the map of the area, we see that Russia needs a few things more than just the newly independent territories to protect its military assets in Crimea.
Here is the prediction.
Look for an agreement to permanently place Russian soldiers in the part of Ukraine between Crimea and the Dnieper River. It will continue to be part of Ukraine on paper, but will be effectively controlled by Russia. Refer to the map below. The blue outline will become permanently the newly independent territories as we have said before. But further, the area outlined in red still be part of Ukraine but controlled by Russia.
Not only do they need this, it is actually the REAL reason for the invasion. That is Russia’s big secret.
Russia needs to control that area for a couple of reasons.
First, It needs to secure transportation and pipeline routes overland between Russia and Crimea. It cannot afford to allow Ukraine to control or potentially restrict access to Crimea, or move military assets there that would be in a position to do so.
Remember, Russia has only a small handful of warm water ports. Sevastopol houses a substantial part of the Russian Navy and is vital as a commercial shipping point for goods and oil. Russia does not want a western friendly Ukraine to be able to interfere with the supply lines there.
Second, it needs to ensure access to the Dneiper River, which is the only major fresh water source convenient to Crimea. Previously, Ukraine damned the river cutting off most of their water, potentially crippling Crimean operations. This will not happen again. A permanent presence of Russian troops will have to be there to ensure that.
Watch for the sleight of hand here, Russia will get credit for pulling back from Kyiv, but it will continue to consolidate its control in the areas between the new territories and Odesa. During negotiations, it will “give them back” to Ukraine in exchange for effective control.
This will be done very quietly, it will not be allowed to affect the overall negotiations.
This will not be widely advertised. Some people will squawk, but not many. But I guarantee that this war will not end without this accommodation.