The Next Governor of California could be a Republican. What?

In the lead-up to California’s 2026 gubernatorial election, recent polling suggests a surprise may be in the offing in the nation’s most populous state. With Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited, a crowded field of candidates is vying for the open seat in what California calls its “jungle primary” system.

Under this nonpartisan primary, all candidates—regardless of party—appear on a single ballot in the June 2 primary. Voters select their preferred candidate, and if no one secures more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters advance to a November runoff, irrespective of their political affiliation.

Now here is where the gubernatorial races get interesting.

According to the most recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, the top two contenders in the very blue (Democrat) state are both Republicans. Former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton leads at 17 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is in second place at 16 percent. Both are Republicans. Hilton has led in virtually every recent poll, though high levels of undecided voters—often exceeding 15 percent—and low voter enthusiasm suggest the race remains fluid.

Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell trails third with around 13 percent in the LA Times poll, with Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire activist Tom Steyer filling out the field.

When she first entered the race, Porter was considered to be formidable contender, but a serous of maladroit statements and revelations knocked her off the higher perch. Swalwell was considered by some to be a pre-emptive candidate, but his baggage has since arrived.

The irony here is profound. California is one of the deepest blue states in the union, with overwhelming Democratic voter registration advantages and a track record of reliably electing Democrats to statewide office for nearly two decades. Yet the fragmented Democratic field is allowing the two Republicans to consolidate conservative support and potentially lock out Democrats from the November ballot entirely. Should Hilton and Bianco advance, the general election would pit Republican against Republican, virtually guaranteeing that California will elect a GOP governor for the first time since Arnold Schwarzenegger.

This scenario highlights the unintended consequences of the jungle primary system, which is claimed to promote moderation by its advocates. It now threatens to upend traditional trends and voting outcomes — exposing the risks of vote-splitting in a largely one-party state. Voter dissatisfaction with the current crop of candidates, combined with concerns over affordability, housing, and governance, appears to be fueling support for outsider Republican voices. While Democrats remain heavily favored in most general election scenarios, the current polling serves as a wake-up call for the donkey party. The Jungle primary means that even the bluest of states could see a dramatic shift in political leadership. The coming weeks of campaigning and debates will be critical in determining whether this polling snapshot becomes November’s reality.

So, there ‘tis.