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Democrats want Trump … but Cassidy is right

Democrats want Trump … but Cassidy is right

If you listen to the Democrats and the left-leaning news media, you would be inclined to believe that former President Trump has a lock on the GOP presidential nomination in 2024.  At the same time, they opine that Trump could never win the 2024 General Election.  That is why they want him to be the GOP nominee – and are trying to insure he is.

If they really thought he could win, they would not be spending so much time and energy trying to get him the Republican nomination through self-proving prophesy.  They believe he is not only a loser, but that if he was the presidential candidate, he would sink the GOP across the nation.

Democrats are giddy at the thought of running against Trump – and raising all the same old issues with which they have been pounding Trump and the GOP for the past five years.  They would see his capturing the nomination as further evidence that the Republican Party has become a cult of personality.  They believe that the Republican campaign of 2024 is part of Trump’s insurrectionist plan – and that his election would bring down the Republic and launch an era of a Trump dictatorship.  

Nutty as all that is, it is what Democrats are peddling and their media allies are trumpeting as if the left-wing propaganda is true.  In fact, they are trying to make Trump the deciding issue in the 2022 midterm election even though he is not on the ballot.

Democrats and the media rest their entire campaign strategy on one foundation – that Trump could be, or will be, the GOP presidential candidate in 2024.  They base it on polls that seem to show that most Republican voters want Trump as their next presidential candidate at this time – and they assume he will be.

But not so fast.

I have previously expressed my belief that Trump will NOT be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.  The flaw in the Democrat thinking is that Trump is popular with more than 55 percent of the GOP voters.  

Those poll numbers may reflect Republican voters at this moment, but maybe not so true as other candidates explore the race. While the left’s theory hangs by a single thread – those current polls – there is ample evidence that Trump is not the people’s choice for 2024 – at least not the likely Republican voters.

The first question is, how accurate are the polls in determining opinions three years in the future.  One of the things that drives up Trump’s current numbers is the lack of a clear alternative choice.  Another is that many are picking Trump as a pushback against all the unfair and dishonest attacks on THEM – the Republican voter.  The left uses Trump to demonize the GOP voters and so the GOP voters are pushing back by defending Trump.

There are other more targeted polls that suggest that a lot of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 would prefer that he NOT be the standard-bearer in 2024 – me included.

Trump has not been popular with most of Americans – and even most people who vote Republican.  Like other candidates who win upset elections, they come to believe it was their popularity.  What got Trump elected was the momentum of the GOP going into the 2016 election AND the aversion the voters had for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.  And Trump would not have won the GOP nomination in 2016 had there not been such a large field to divide up the vote in those early primaries – the ones he was winning with less than 30 percent of the vote.  

Outside of a few later 2016 primaries – when Trump appeared to have a lock on the nomination – he never received the support of more than 50 percent of the voters.  In fact, he lost the popular vote in the 2016 election – and arguably lost it again in 2020.  It is a fact, that most Republican voters wanted someone other than Trump – and that is significant because it does not appear that he has increased the size of his base.

In a recent interview, Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy gave the case as to why he also believes Trump will not be the Republican candidate in 2024.  And while Cassidy has made his opinion public, he may represent a rather large constituency in the Republican Party – officeholders, candidates and voters.

Although Trump claims a popular vote victory in 2020, the Trump team has been myopically focusing on flipping a couple of states that would have given him enough electoral votes, but not so much on the popular vote.

Cassidy points out that in addition to falling short in the popular vote in 2016, Trump subsequently lost the House, the Senate and his own re-election – controversy notwithstanding.  That was the first time that happened since 1932, when the Great Depression swept Republicans out of office across the land.

If there are only one or two credible Republican candidates to oppose Trump, I believe that he will not win the nomination if he chooses to run.  Democrats and the media are working overtime to discourage competition – hoping that Trump will get the nomination.  They know any credible alternative candidates would reduce Trump’s chances to the point of eliminating them.

There is also the possibility that – despite Democrat/media narratives – Trump will not run in 2024. There are a lot of good reasons why he might choose to take a pass.  His age, legal entanglements, a perception that he cannot win and just the realization that he can be a political force without all the constraints of the presidency to name a few.

In the meantime, those on the left will keep propping Trump up as the number one news item in America in the hope that it will sink GOP chances of taking the House and even the Senate in 2022 and lose the presidency in 2024.  Personally, I do not think it is going to work.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry HoristLarry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

3 Comments

  1. Dan Tyree

    If Trump runs against retard joe the commiecrats would go down in flames. If this article is true why do we have the commie trolls on this site crying about Trump. The commiecrats are scared shitless of him

  2. Frank stetson

    Once again, I will say I fear not Trump, I fear Trumpism. Trump is like a pimple, you can pop it but acne is really the problem.

    Trumpism makes people like Larry hold their nose and vote for Trump. It makes people like Dan go all “scanners” on us with his silly little name-calling tirades because he can’t put a cogent argument together, much less garner any facts to support it. Very Trumpism way to proceed.

    Trumpism is what makes 70% of Republican voters believe the 2020 election was rigged. It makes them pass the most restrictive voting laws in decades so that in 2024 Trump can win by losing. Trumpism is what makes a 1/6 insurrectionist look like a tourist. It makes separating kids from their parents at the border look like a holiday with three hots and a cot. Trump is him makes North Korea and Russia are friends. It makes Charlotte look like good people, one and all.

    IMO, This is all moot, neither Trump nor Biden will probably run in 2024; but I fear that Trumpism will still control the republican party, Larry will hold his nose, Dan will rejoice and call some names to pick his spirits up, and we will get the next version to vote for.

  3. Joseph S. Bruder

    In the immortal words of Ronnie Reagan, “there you go again”… You attribute all sorts of nonsense to Democrats and “the liberal elite East Coast press”, and none of it is true. And once you’ve built your straw man (let’s call it a scarecrow, since it’s designed to scare your more gullible readers), you go on with your hit-piece against Democrats from there. And of course, you have to declare that you’re not a Trump fan, even though every column you’ve written in the last 5-6 years promoted him.

    Democrats DO NOT believe Trump will run in 2024. Most Democrats believe he will be in jail by then, and in reality are trying to make sure that happens. Most Democrats do believe that a pretty good share of Republicans still want Trump to run, and if he did run a majority of Republicans would vote for him. But let’s face the facts – Trump is grifting for money. As long as there’s a question about him running, he will continue to get campaign donations from stupid people. The minute he declares one way or another, either donations stop or the ability to funnel it into his pockets stop. It is Trump who is pushing the possibility of himself running, not Democrats. I don’t believe that the media, left or right, is playing it up because they think Trump will run – they run breathless pieces on the election because it’s scare tactics for ratings.

    “Trump arguably lost the popular vote in 2020”? Oh, Larry, c’mon, there was no argument. He lost by a landslide. Only 90% of Congressional Republicans and Trump’s minions of crazies are maintaining that argument.

    So, the real question, now that the press has uncovered the “War Room” at the Willard Hotel (yes, still gritting my teeth and trying not to call it Willardgate), will there be any Republicans left to run for President in 2024? It kind of puts new meaning back into the idea of an attempted coup, doesn’t it? All the Republican newbie members of Congress, as well as a few seasoned veterans, seem to have been there or sent members of their staff. And of course, members of Trump’s White House and his old campaign staff were there… and even Pence was taking part in discussions on how to overthrow the election.

    You’ve criticized Pelosi for her “dog and pony show”, but more and more the truth is coming out and it looks like there was a real conspiracy to take away the will of the people and steal the election. I’m looking forward to seeing the likes of Gaetz, Gohmert, Hawthorne, Greene, Boebert, Bannon, Guiliani, Flynn, Stone, and all the other Republican idiots getting sent to prison. And they had a second War Room at the Trump Hotel, which guarantees that Trump will be there with them – no way they had that at his hotel without his knowledge and approval (in fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was charging them for the rooms too, so he could get even more money in his pockets). You kind of lose your plausible deniability when you use your own hotel to plan a coup, but Trump has a history of taking the short money and losing his shirt in the long term (just look at all his businesses and everything he’s ever been involved in).