American Boots, Nukes & Militaries in the Middle East

The Middle East is a mess right now. The more I learn about the region in modern times, the more I question the potential for future peace and stability there. Walking into last week, I had three main questions on my mind that inspired me to research and further develop my own understanding of the current situation.

First, who are the strongest military forces in the Middle East?

How many American boots are already on the ground stationed in the Middle East?

And finally, who has nuclear weapons in the Middle East?

To better understand where all of this could be headed moving forward, it’s best to take a step back and take a look at the bigger picture here. Nearly a month after the initial attacks on Israel by Hamas from Palestine that took 1400 of their lives, Israeli forces have initiated the next phase of warfare by surrounding Gaza with tanks and beginning the ground invasion in response.

Seeking a humanitarian pause to have more time to rescue hostages, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled back to Israel on Friday. His calls were rejected by Netanyahu in Israel, who vowed to continue their response until all hostages are set free. 240 still remain in captivity, with 10 of those said to be American. More than 9,000 Palestinians have been killed during the conflict so far, with two thirds of them being women and children. 35 Americans have also lost their lives in this conflict.

The most immediate additional threat is Hezbollah from Lebanon on the northern border. With 100,000 soldiers being prepared for war, Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah says that he is not looking for escalation, but that all options are on the table. This comes after Nasrallah declared Hezbollah had already joined the war on Israel on October 8th, immediately after Israel began its response to the terrorist attacks on their land.

Houthis in Yemen have also declared war on Israel with additional backing by Iran.  Israel responded by sending warships to the Red Sea, but this comes as the Houthis are currently in a civil war themselves within Yemen and have one of the weakest militaries in the Middle East. While it is a threat, it doesn’t seem to be beyond the scope of Israel being able to handle. Israel could likely handle conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis on their own, but what about escalation beyond those to involve the military power of Iran or Turkey?

The greatest concern for the moment is the question of if Iran will decide to enter into the war. With the 3rd biggest military in the Middle East, despite heavy sanctions, they have a force of nearly 575,000 active forces, another 350,000 reserves and a fit for service population of 40 million, as well as  70,000 armored fighting vehicles, 4000 tanks and a mass of rocketry, technology and cyberspace capability. Iran is one of the central forces of power in the Middle East, with a history of funding terrorism across the region against Israel and the United States. Any escalation to war with them would be potentially catastrophic. If Iran went to war with Israel, we would almost certainly either have to enter the war ourselves or leave the Middle East entirely. Which do you honestly believe is more likely here?

Still, we are not entirely alone in the region.

The second biggest military in the Middle East is Egypt, our closest ally next to Israel. They opened the border to allow foreign citizens to escape Palestine, as well as those who needed medical help from Palestine to be moved into hospitals for urgent care. Initially a deal was attempted between Israel and Egypt, offering debt relief for taking Palestinians, but Egypt rejected the offer, not wanting the Palestinian population to be moved into Egypt. The fear is that if the Palestinians are moved to Egypt, or any other nation, that they will stay for good and probably never return to their homes in Palestine. There is some talk of bringing people from Palestine to the United States, but this is a terrible idea. Why would or should we ever bring any people who generally hate the United States into the United States, unless the plan is simply the self destruction of American culture? Hopefully, we will not allow that to happen here and I do not blame Egypt for doing what it can to protect its own people and culture.

As I researched the region, I was surprised to discover that the country in the Middle East that is believed to currently have the greatest military capability is Turkey. They are a member of the United Nations, and said to be a close enough ally to store our own nuclear weapons, which I will get to later here, but, despite this, Turkey seems to be making the decision to stand against Israel and potentially even move forward into war. I am not sure what the implications of this would be if that happens.

While giving a speech to a massive pro Palestinian rally in Istanbul last week, Turkish President Erdogan said, “I believe that we should stop Israel, which looks as if it’s completely out of its mind and lost it, as soon as possible. We will ensure that those responsible for war crimes in Gaza will face justice”.

Now, with more updates this weekend, Antony Blinken is leaving Israel to head towards Turkey to help maintain diplomacy between the two nations after Erdogan decided to further cut relations by pulling out the Turkish ambassador to Israel Sakir Ozkan Torunlar. This is starting to look like another great upset within the projection of supposed unity within the members of the UN.

Turkey has 425,000 active military personnel, with 35 million in the population fit for service, 200,000 reserves, 2,229 tanks, 113,476 armored fighting vehicles, 516 rocket projectors and support from many of the enemies of Israel.

Israel is the 4th greatest military in the Middle East, with 646,000 total military personnel and only over 3 million in the population fit for service, but it still gains an advantage due to its aircraft, iron dome and advanced military technology. Its greatest asset seems to be the relation Israel has with the United States.

Israel can stand up to Palestine. Israel can stand up to the Houthis. Israel could probably stand up to Hezbollah too, but it would almost certainly need help with Iran. Any conflict with Turkey would throw everything in the region into chaos.

It has been my personal stance that Israel has the right to defend itself and should be taking action against Hamas or anyone who wants to eliminate the Jewish people from the region. It is also my personal stance that the United States has enough problems, cannot afford more wars and should stop being the world police. We should pull back all of our resources and funding from around the world and focus on being the best we can possibly be here. What do we get out of any of these wars?

More than money, I do not want the United States to get involved with any wars or send any boots to the ground anywhere in the Middle East. But that is an entirely false desire, looking at the moment, as we already have boots on the ground stationed all around the region. If the Middle East doesn’t want the US or Israel to be in the region, should we be at all? Is this all about oil, resources, land and control? Is Israel merely the self-destruct mechanism established by Western powers after World War 2 to maintain a reason for being in the region and an excuse to take further action? If the Middle East self-destructs, Russia, China and the US could swoop in and gather everything up if they can manage to keep out of the war directly. Is this what is happening here?

What would have to happen to drag the United States into war in the Middle East?

While it mostly depends on the cause and effect of other nations actions, one direct flash point could be increased attacks on any number of the countless bases the US military has stationed around the Middle East. Outside of planetary control and resources, what reason is there for us to be in the Middle East at all in the first place?

We currently have an estimated 40,000 US military personnel in the Middle East. We have 2900 in Jordan, 9000 in Bahrain, 2700 in Saudi Arabia and another 3500 in the United Arab Emirates. Thousands have been in Kuwait since the first Gulf War in 1991. We are also said to still have around 2500 in Iraq and around 900 in Syria. We have 8000 in Qatar, which has been a host to Hamas leaders, but still key in helping establish lines of communication, despite also housing the supreme leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh. We have 1000 in Turkey. It is unknown how many US troops are based in Israel, but a single classified base named Site 512 is said to be currently run by the US military.

What would happen if we just left the region entirely? What would happen if we pulled out all of our bases and just built the greatest military here, establishing an American fortress on American land? Sounds like another impossible pipe dream, but it may be the only way to avoid future conflict in the region. I believe in the power of America, but I am wondering if Israel will end up like Ukraine or even Vietnam, where we face the option of a proxy war money hole, a forever war that is unwinnable, complete disengagement or total destruction.

More than American boots on the ground or the capabilities of militaries in the Middle East, the most important question to ask right now may be that of asking who in the Middle East has nuclear weapons. If one drops anywhere, the fallout of the world order will be coming next.

Of all the nations in the Middle East, Israel is the only country that has nuclear weapon capability with around 90 said to be in its stock. Why is Israel allowed to have them when the rest of the Middle East has been banned from doing so? The common sense answer is because they are an ally of the United States, which works well from our perspective but will never make sense to those nations who have been banned from ever doing so. They all sit under the thumb of Israel, who can erase its enemies with the push of a button if deemed necessary. Is this a good thing?

If Iran or any other nation in the Middle East, or any force for that matter, ever threatened the existence of Israel, a last resort massive retaliation plan exists called the Samson Option. This is a reference to the biblical judge Samson, who killed himself by bringing down the temple on the Philistines who had captured him. Here, the reference means that if anyone comes into Israel and threatens to remove it from the land entirely, that they will send nuclear weapons off to detonate across the Middle East in a final act of self destructive retaliation.

Holocaust survivor and poet Itamar Yaoz Kest wrote in a poem referencing the plan that “If you force us yet again to descend from the face of the Earth to the depths of the Earth – let the Earth roll toward the nothingness”.

Reminds me of the same response Russia has threatened against NATO expansion, and hopefully none of that happens anywhere in any nation to any people. All nations want the right to exist and to be left alone on their own land. No nation should ever be the target of a nuclear attack, but that is, again, more pipe dream thinking.

The next question is, how close is Iran to having the capability of creating nuclear weapons themselves, or even further, is it actually possible that they have them right now?

In the United States, HR Res 559 “declaring it is the policy of the United States that a nuclear Islamic Republic of Iran is not acceptable” seems to remain our policy. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said back in May of this year that Iran continues to enrich uranium to a grade that has “no credible peaceful purpose”. It was said to be enriched up to 60%, where 90% is weapons grade. In January, samples were found to be enriched at 83.7%.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says that Iran has “amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons”. General Mark Milley has also said recently that, “Iran could produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks and would only take several more months to produce an actual nuclear weapon”.

The resolution says that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon under any circumstances and that all means necessary can be used to prevent Iran from ever doing so. It also calls for Iran to recognize the people of Israel in the region. Will a signed piece of paper here be enough to stop Iran from taking any further action or establishing nuclear weapons? Sadly enough, I doubt it. The paper will merely be grounds for future warfare.

And what about the nuclear weapons in Turkey? Apparently, with the weapons sharing treaty under NATO’s nuclear umbrella, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Turkey have all been selected to store and be capable of deploying nuclear weapons. Turkey continues to currently keep around 50 B61 tactical nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Base. Considering recent events, I’m not sure how safe or secure this is, or if it is a good idea at all. Quite frankly, it just doesn’t make sense to me.

In preparation for the potential coming threats, the United States has also unveiled plans for 10 billion dollars in funding towards developing a secret new weapon technology called the B61-13. It is a gravity bomb with 360 kilotons, or 24 times the power of the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in Japan during World War 2. While the US waits for congressional approval for the investment, Putin has just finished signing legislation that disconnects Russia from the global treaty banning nuclear testing.

We are entering a new phase of the global nuclear arms race.

As of today, it is said that Russia leads the world in nuclear weaponry with 6,257 in its current stock. The United States has 5,550, while China still has 350. France has 290, UK 225, India 156, Israel 90 and North Korea has 40. There are 12,512 nuclear weapons on Earth as of January 2023. It only takes one to change the world.

Back in 2020 before the Presidential election, Joe Biden said in an interview that, “The world has changed because of what Trump has done… as the walls close in on this man he’s going to get us into war with Iran. Unfortunately, I may have been right”.

Looks like Biden pulled a Twilight Zone inverse Cramer on Earth. No matter if Trump lost the election or if it was actually stolen, Trump went 4 years without a war and Biden, becoming President, has wars on two fronts with ever expanding uncertainty towards escalation all around the world. Just another thought worth noting here.

I’d love for America to be able to take back all of their boots on the ground around the world, convince all nations to lay down their arms, shut down all the nukes and let the independence of nations thrive by their own will and work.

Instead it looks like we’re preparing for more boots on more ground in more countries, with more weapons world wide, more nukes, more division, more conflict and more war.

Best case scenario is Turkey decides to keep a neutral stance. Iran decides it is in its best interest to keep the status quo by just making money keeping the oil flowing to who they wish to sell to. The US steps back, while Israel continues to face Hamas directly, with a better focus on reducing civilian casualties. Hamas surrenders, lets the hostages go, and the Palestinians either go back to their land to rebuild with a two party state and plans for economic cooperation or they are allowed to move into a neighboring country that has been supportive of the people of Palestine.

If the Middle East moves to go to war with Israel, the United States will either have to fight the war without hesitation beside them, or it will be forced to relocate the people of Israel out of the region and most likely back to the United States. The only other option is to completely remove ourselves from the Middle East and allow whatever will happen to happen there.

Most likely, we will continue to stand beside Israel, Iran will continue being aggressive, Turkey will continue to be against Israel, the UN will continue to fall apart, America will continue to keep spending money and keep pretending to have some sort of moral high ground, while continuing to send weapons of war around the world, as will Russia and as will China, and most likely war will continue through the days ahead. Remember, there are no angels in war.

No one knows what will happen next.

As Americans, we have to stand strong together, think clearly, speak honestly and remain ready for anything that happens in the days ahead.

No matter what.