Donald Trump wins!!!

It will take many future commentaries to fully cover all the aspects and implications of the “yuge” victory by President, former President, and now President-elect Donald Trump.  But here is my quick take on what has  been widely – and hyperbolically — claimed to be “the  most important presidential election in American history.”

For only the second time in American history, a President of the United States who lost a bid for a second consecutive term has come back to win a non-consecutive bid. The first was President Grover Cleveland in 1892.

That, however, is not the most amazing aspect of the 2024 presidential contest.  It is not just Trump’s victory, but the scope and depth of that victory by a man with more political baggage than any presidential candidate in American history.  And a man who was viciously maligned and demeaned far beyond the realities of his baggage.

The post-election assessment of the anti-Trump media pundits is that he won by resorting to fear and anger.  That is rich.  It was actually Democrats who resorted to one of the most aggressive fear mongering campaigns in American history.  Their central theme was that Trump would literally bring down the 235-year-old American Republic.  They said that his election would be the last free election in America.  He would rule as a Hitler-style dictator – and that his voters were racists, misogynists, homophobes, sexists and anti-American cultists.  You cannot spread more baseless fear than that.  Trump did not monger in fear as much as he pointed to Biden and Democrat policies that legitimately scared people.

The Trump victory was so convincing that the election was called in less than 12 hours from the close of the last polls.  There are no days of waiting for final results.  There will be no efforts to challenge results or request recounts.  The Supreme Court will gladly not be called in to settle highly political issues.

Not only did Trump win in the all-important Electoral College, he won the popular vote – and he did by crossing the 50 percent threshold – something he had not done in his two previous elections.   It was something his critics said he could never do.  They believed he had a hard ceiling at around 46 to 48 percent.

Then there are the pundits and the polls.  Most of the Harris pundits and media personalities expressed confidence in a Harris victory – even though they conceded it would be close.  They were wrong in analysis and strategy. 

The polls were wrong because they AGAIN underestimated the Trump vote.  Numbers gurus, such as MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki, had said that at no time in history had pollsters made such a blunder three times in a row.  This time they did.  There are many reasons why there has consistently been a hidden Trump vote.  It is a given.

While a number of states are unsettled at this writing, it can be said that Trump made an impressive sweep in the state count. The map – with some exceptions, such as Illinois and Minnesota – suggests that the Democratic Party has lost fly-over America.  In losing the presidency, the Senate and potentially the House, it is fair to call Democrats a bicoastal regional Party.  The Party’s power rests in overwhelming majorities in a few large states, such as New York, New Jersey and California.

Now that the election is FINALLY over, the essential questions are “how” and “why.”

The first answer is found in the statistics.  Trump won because he outperformed his numbers in both 2016 and 2020 – by a lot. It was not a local issue.  He did better in very red states and in very blue states.

CNN showed a graphic that indicated the counties across America in which he improved is best previous vote by 3 percent.  The map was a sea of red with thousands of counties in which Trump showed significant improvements.  When they called up the map of all the counties in which Vice President Harris did 3 percent better than Biden had done in 2020, the map was devoid of blue. 

The Trump phenomenon is seen in the data showing how well he did with women — despite claims that he is a misogynist.   Biden had carried women by 12 percent.  Harris carried them by only 8 percent even though the campaign directed enormous resources to attract women.  Other than the demonization of Trump and his voters, Harris focused heavily on abortion as the perceived strategic advantage with women.  It did not work.

He improved his numbers with men by 3 percent … his numbers with the non-college voters by 6 percent … Hispanic voters by 6 percent …  Black voters by 7 percent … AND improved his numbers among young voters by 10 percent. 

He was the overwhelming favorite among Republicans – despite the number of GOP apostates — and shaved off an unprecedented number of Democratic voters.  He won the majority of so-called independents.

The Trump victory was so impressive that his supporters and his adversaries are speaking of “realignment” – a fundamental change in the American electorate with ramifications for the foreseeable future.  Trump’s victory in 2016 can be seen as an anomaly.  His loss in 2020 was seen as confirmation of that belief.  This election suggests a much deeper realignment.  It also gives the GOP the ability of call itself as a diverse party – representing the widest array of demographic groups.

That is my quick overview of the election.  Other facets of a remarkable election will be covered in subsequent commentaries.

So, there ‘tis.