In politics, size matters … or does it?

No this is not another salacious report on sex and politics.  This is about crowd size at political events.

Now one thing that is ALWAYS true is that the host organizations for a political event will report a much larger crowd size than the opposition party.  It is just one of the “givens” of political life.

That issue came up again after President Trump’s rally in Wildwood, New Jersey.  The Trump folks claimed that 100,000 people attended the rally.  The anti-Trump people – including the news media – are topping the crowd off at 20,000.  We can safely assume that both sides are wrong.  They claim 20,000 figure based on the alleged the capacity of the area.

Official capacity claims are not the best indicator of audience size.  I have attended – and even hosted – events that far exceeded the designated room size by multiples. Yes, it can be a violation of local fire laws in some cases, but overcrowding a room is done routinely in public venues – outdoor and indoor.  That is especially true when there is a crowd surge like we annually see in the costal towns of south Florida.

The City of Wildwood reported an estimate of 80,000 attendees, but that included the overflow from the designated beach area – and people in town for the rally who were not able to attend because of the size of the crowd.  City officials promised a more complete report in the future.  (My question is, why bother?   The crowd size is irrelevant to the all-important political issues.  And it has a shelf life of a yellow banana,)

Having to deal with the question of crowd size over a lifetime of political analysis and punditry, I will offer up my opinion.  Based on the photos I saw and the various reports, I would estimate the actual crowd at the rally as approximately 65,000 – give or take 5,000.

For the sake of discussion, let us assume that 65,000 is correct – and go from there.

There is no disputing the fact  that it was a very impressive crowd size relative to typical campaign rallies and speeches.  That is the crucial point.  Particularly impressive in view that it was in a very blue state. 

As a data point, it is very positive for Trump.  He gets bragging points for demonstrating support and enthusiasm among voters.  Even as President, Biden has never drawn a crowd anywhere near the sizes of Trump’s.  The only person to draw that size crowds was President Obama, and that was in Chicago AFTER his unprecedented election.

Of course, Biden is avoiding engaging in Trump-style rallies as a matter of campaign strategy.  He is what one person described as the “bubble wrapped candidate.”  So, even though a meaningful comparison of Trump’s and Biden’s relative box office power cannot be made empirically, the fact that Trump does draw such large crowds is noteworthy on its own. It indicates something. 

The size of Trump’s rally crowds is part of a larger political phenomenon.  They are the result of the fact that Trump is doing so well among voters – leading Biden in most polling — despite his pugnacious personality, the desertion of a segment of the GOP establishment, his myriad of legal entanglements and the avalanche of extremely negative coverage – often. rising to brutal partisan propaganda.

The crowds Trump draws cannot be dismissed. He has a sustained popularity with at least half of the American public.  That does not mean he will win the 2024 presidential election, but the fact that his chances are at least 50/50 says a lot.  It may also explain why he draws such large crowds.

But with Biden laying claim to the other half of the American voter – and a 50/50 chance of winning – why the lack of audience participation?  In fact, Biden has not been able to assemble a standing room crowd in a hotel ballroom.  The empty seats must mean something.

The comparative size of the audiences may at least be an indicator of voter enthusiasm – and that is very important.  In fact, that may be the critical difference in a close presidential election.

So, there ‘tis.