Will Trump’s Risky Bet on Paxton Cost the GOP the Senate

In a previous commentary, are argued that a Paxton endorsement from President Trump would be a mistake. Early polling appears to vindicate my opinion.

The latest poll from Texas Public Opinion Research has sent a chill through Republican ranks. Democratic state lawmaker and Presbyterian minister James Talarico leads scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton 47 percent to 43 percent in the race for U.S. Senate. With only seven percent undecided, Republicans face an uphill battle to close the gap in what was supposed to be safe red territory.

President Trump’s late endorsement of Paxton in the primary runoff helped secure the nomination against incumbent John Cornyn. But early returns suggest it may prove to be a serious miscalculation—one that prioritizes personal loyalty over electoral reality. I have long warned against such moves. Ideology is important, but it has to be weighed against winnability. Texas remains a Republican stronghold, yet this contest is tightening in ways that should alarm every GOP strategist focused on holding the Senate majority.

Let’s compare the two candidates honestly. Paxton brings fire to the fight. As Attorney General, he has aggressively challenged federal overreach, sued over election integrity issues, and positioned himself as a staunch defender of conservative values on border security, abortion, and Second Amendment rights.

While the base may love the combative style, the minuses are substantial. Multiple scandals, including an impeachment trial (though acquitted), ethics investigations, and personal legal troubles have left him with underwater favorability ratings. In a general election, those vulnerabilities invite relentless attacks and alienate moderates and independents—who, according to the poll, are breaking heavily for Talarico.

Talarico, by contrast, presents a smoother, more polished profile. As a state representative and ordained minister, he appeals to faith-minded voters while projecting moderation on certain issues. He hammers home themes of ethics in government and practical governance that resonate with suburban and college-educated Texans.

His pluses include less personal baggage and the ability to frame the race as a referendum on Paxton’s controversies rather than national policy. The minuses? He is still a left-wing Democrat in a state that hasn’t elected one to statewide office in decades. Talarico pushes progressive priorities that clash with core Texas values on energy, immigration, and taxes.

The calculus changes dramatically with Paxton as the GOP standard-bearer. Before the runoff, many analysts viewed the Texas Senate seat as a reliable Republican hold—even with Cornyn facing criticism for insufficient MAGA alignment. Cornyn’s experience and broader appeal likely would have kept the race off the national radar.

Paxton’s victory, fueled by Trump’s endorsement, transforms a safe seat into a genuine battleground. Democrats now smell blood. A loss in Texas would be catastrophic—not just a single defeat, but one that could tip the balance of Senate control. In a cycle where Republicans are defending more seats and navigating midterm dynamics, every unexpected vulnerability counts. What was unlikely before Paxton’s primary win now looms as a real possibility.

Trump’s error lies in underestimating how personal loyalty can backfire when baggage overshadows message. Endorsing a fighter is understandable in a movement valuing courage, but primaries test intra-party strength while generals test broad electability. Paxton’s win energized the base but handed Democrats their strongest recruiting narrative in years: “Even Texas is rejecting this chaos.” Moderates who might have stuck with a steadier Republican are drifting. Independents, key to any statewide victory, are signaling discomfort.

Republicans must now pour resources into a race they expected to win on autopilot. The worst outcome is not merely losing one seat. It is watching that loss potentially contributing to a narrow Democratic Senate majority. That would stall conservative judicial appointments, border enforcement, and economic reforms for years. Texas voters deserve better than a choice defined by one candidate’s liabilities. They need a standard-bearer who unites rather than divides the center-right coalition that has kept the Lone Star State red – and Paxton may not be the person who can do that.

With only a four- seat majority in the Senate, Republicans need to hold the line. Several other Republican seats are considered to be in play – including Maine and Ohio.

Trump has a remarkable track record of bold calls. His past victories in Republican primaries did not always fare well in general election – such as Herschel Walker in Georgia and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. The Paxton win carries the same scent.

Conservatives should demand candidates who can both fight the good fight and actually win the war. Loyalty is a virtue, but electoral victory is the ultimate necessity. If this poll holds, Trump may have handed Democrats their best shot at a Texas upset in modern history. And the Senate hangs in the balance.

So, there ‘tis.