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Will the 2024 Democrat Ticket be Biden/Harris?

Will the 2024 Democrat Ticket be Biden/Harris?

Most politicians and political pundits speak with a level of certainty that the 2024 Democratic presidential team will be Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  President Biden has all but announced his intention to run for a second term — and Vice President Harris has confidently predicted that if Biden runs, she will be his running mate.

Despite the current predictions, there is an undercurrent of doubt – a feeling that the question of the 2024 Democrat team may not be as settled as it appears.  That feeling applies to both Biden and Harris.  Perhaps neither of them will be on the ticket.

Why the doubt?  Presidents who win a first time generally run for a second – and they generally keep the same vice-presidential teammate.  After all, why break up a winning team?  This year may be unique, however.

Let us first consider Biden.  What would prevent him from being the Democrats’ standard bearer?  The most obvious issue is age – followed by health.  In terms of the latter, Biden is at an age that – as they say – anything can happen.  While he appears to be in relatively good condition for a man his age, it would not be shocking if he were to suffer a serious health problem – heart attack, stroke, or cancer.

And that is why his age, alone, is an issue.  Statistically, it is unlikely that he could go another six years without a major health issue.  Even if nothing major happens before the 2024 election, voters would have a justified concern about his ability to get to 2029 without a serious health event – or even surviving that long.

And even in the absence of some major health crisis, there is the question of his ability to perform the functions of the office.  Ninety-eight-year-old Jimmy Carter said that no one over 80 is fit enough to be President – and he should know about the more subtle complications of aging. Electing a President who is over 80 years old is a gamble – and the odds are not good.

Then there is the matter of popularity.  Despite the Democrat’s efforts to sell their good news political gospel – and the willingness of the crony press to play public relations department for Biden and the Democrats – Biden is not a popular President.  His favorable rating has been underwater for most of his presidency – hovering in the mid-40 percentile and occasionally dropping as low as a disastrous 36 percent.

Biden seems to have two problems.  His policies have resulted in economic hardships for many Americans – most notably the hard-hitting inflation that Biden predicted would never happen and then would not last long.  While Biden claims to be a whiz in foreign policy, his policies have weakened the United States. 

His too-little, too-late policy in Ukraine is prolonging the war and making a Ukraine victory less than assured.  His surrender in Afghanistan has transformed an allied nation into an adversarial nation, reduced U.S. intelligence capability, and strengthened both al Qaeda and the Taliban.  

His southern border policy has been an unmitigated catastrophe for the United States – overwhelming American resources with a flood of refugees – mostly ineligible for asylum.  The hoards of border crossers are exacerbating the already serious crime problem and pouring fuel on the deadly fentanyl crisis.

In backing Biden, Democrats are counting on President Trump being the opponent – and that he is eminently beatable regardless of Biden’s weaknesses and downsides. 

Biden’s ability to get renominated largely depends on his ability to keep out any serious competition.  It is not easy for challengers to defeat incumbent presidents running for reelection – as was the case of Ronald Reagan’s attempt to take out President Ford in the 1976 GOP primaries and Senator Ted Kennedy’s effort to defeat President Carter in the 1980 Democrat primaries.

Biden’s only obstacle to the nomination is a health crisis or his own decision to withdraw.  However, his chances of winning the nomination in 2024 are greater than his winning the election.  Newsweek reported a decline in Biden’s chances of winning the nomination.  The odds of his being reelected are even worse.  Of course, much depends on who the GOP opponent will be – and that requires a completely different analysis.

What about Harris?  She creates a unique problem for Democrats – many of whom privately wish for a different person.  Biden, himself, may share that wish.  It has not been the most harmonious President/Vice President matching in American history.  However, the Democratic Party’s wokeness makes it virtually impossible for Biden to make a change.

If Biden decides not to run, is unable to run, or is not around to run, Harris will most assuredly make a run for the Oval Office.  She would face serious competition – and I would give her less than a 50/50 chance of winning the nomination.  She is not all that popular among Democrats.

Harris also undermines Biden’s own chances for reelection.  Whoever is Biden’s running mate has a significant chance of assuming the presidency by virtue of a serious decline in the President’s health — or his demise.  Not since the Democrats dumped socialist Henry Wallace in favor of Senator Harry Truman in 1944 – knowing that President Roosevelt was a dead man walking – has the issue of succession been so important.  A lot of Republican and Democrat voters have been keeping their fingers crossed for Biden’s wellbeing throughout his first term.

The issue for Harris is whether wokeness or political pragmaticism will prevail when it is time for Biden to pick is running mate.  The closer the election appears in the polls in the summer of 2024, the prospect of a vice presidential switch-a-roo increases.

Finally, there appears to be a desire among the voting public to see new leadership in both parties.  While Biden – and Trump – are currently the frontrunners in their respective parties, polls indicate that most American voters would be happy to see both Biden and Trump be retired from active politics. 

Much too early to make predictions, but there are good reasons to believe that the situation today will not prevail as the election draws near.

So. There ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

20 Comments

  1. Frank stetson

    Tom: side note. You got Jeff Jackson in NC. Breadth of fresh air. Measured, rational, objective, seems like a good guy.

    • Tom

      Frank, I briefly scanned his website topics. For the most part, his platform is the big D platform with a couple NC nuances. Its a mixed bag for me. I will have to see his opposition. But thanks for the heads up. I was unaware of him and will investigate him and his opponent, and if there are any independent/unaffiliated candidates, further. By the way, under women’s rights, he spoke of abortion, and no other tools. I will have to check out the women’s consent law which seems to be an issue in the state where I guess if a woman says yes to sex then changes her mind, and is subsequently penetrated, she cannot charge the man as a rapist. He wants to do away with that law. I will have to check out that law. He is also in favor of tranny men being able to use women’s bathrooms and in the past this has not worked out well – and I voted against the woke bill to allow tranny males into women’s bathrooms. There I think we need to go to universal bathroom with all devices being in a walled stall with door. No more public urinals in plain site, but still have segregated men and women. If its all stalls, let the tranny wannabe women use the men’s bathroom since most trannys seem to be men acting like women anyway.

  2. Andy

    I’m praying that neither one runs. We need new blood that is not beholden to special interests. Not sure we will get that. Biden is clearly on the decline, and Harris is about the most incompetent VP we’ve ever had. I voted for both, since I did not want Trump in for a second term.

    • Tom

      Andy, I was exactly the same. And I thought Biden could live through one term. But two terms….. I dunno! Don’t want Harris being POTUS. Now if he ran with someone like Condolezza Rice that would be different. Truth is I would like to see Biden and Trump retired for good. Lets get some younger less tainted blood in office. Someone moderate, or an Independent.

  3. Darren

    Biden & Harris will get at least 2 votes.

  4. Tom

    All in all Larry, not a bad job on this one. Pretty good. I only disagree with one statement where you said of Biden, “His surrender in Afghanistan has transformed an allied nation into an adversarial nation….” This is not true. Trump surrendered and then did not pull out in time. Trump did not include the Afghan government in the negotiations which was very wrong because essentially he was negotiating on how to give Afghanistan to the Taliban. Biden only made the bad situation worse with the way he did things. Both share responsibility in the debacle. And by the way, it was never an “allied nation”, it was only an “allied Kabul”, and a weak corrupt ally at that!

    With regard to Biden-Harris ticket versus a Trump-X ticket, wow, can the choices get any worse? As I said before, I think the most reasonable course in this scenario is to vote one ticket for POTUS and all other offices the opposition ticket. Gridlock may be our best way forward, if that does not sound to much like an oxymoron. In this scenario, Franks suggestion of Jeff Jackson may come into play. This could also be a big chance for Independents to gain popularity and seats.

    • larry Horist

      Tom … Trump proposed to pull out in his discussions with the Taliban — without the participation of the Afghan government. I strong disagreed with both those issues at the time. Whether Trump would have followed through with the pull out or not is merely a matter of conjecture. He had conditions that had to be met. BUT … all that aside, Biden was under no responsibility to follow Trump’s course or proposal. ALL options were open to him He could have increased American military presence. He could have allow things to linger. The decision to withdraw at the time he did — and the manner in which he did — was TOTALLY Biden’s decision to make. and he did it in defiance of the recommendations of his own Defense and State Departments — and major allies. Trump did not lock Biden in in any way. Ergo … Biden owns the decision 100 percent. — and the chaos, the deaths, the folks left behind, the loss of intel capabilities , the empowering of the Taliban and al Qaeda and the loss of American prestige and power among allies and adversaries.. You may believe that Trump was on the cusp of taking very bad actions, but it was only Biden who did.

      • Tom

        Yes I do not dispute nor disagree with much of what you just said. But the Taliban was initially empowered by Trump, as it seemed to me that Trump was actually negotiating how to give Afghanistan back to the Taliban when he should have been leading the efforts for Team Kabul – and this was very demoralizing to the Afghan army as well as the political leadership in Kabul. And we all know that a demoralized army has little chance of winning. According to Biden, Trump refused to discuss his withdrawal plan with Biden – I do not know how true that is, but Biden says he was handcuffed by a bad agreement. And I think most of us agree that Biden made a fiasco out of something that he was able to mold to his liking. That is why I agree with most analysts that say both POTUS have responsibility for the mess. But you are correct, Biden did make it the messiest mess in the end, no doubt about that in my mind! My heart goes out to the Vets of that war who did great, their families who endured much, and the women who now cannot go to school. My hope is that we planted a seed and that that seed will grow and one day return to lift up their country.

      • frank stetson

        Conditions were unmet without any Trump actions beyond lobbing a few missiles.

        By setting a timetable, by excluding the Afghans, by not adhering to his own conditions, by releasing 5,000 Taliban fighters, TRUMP set the table allowing the Taliban to plan, prepare, recruit, for war over a year in advance of their actions.

        In May of 2020, Trump drew down 4,000 troops taking us from 13,000 to 8,600 as the Taliban attacked the Afghans.

        In September of 2020, Trump announces ““We’re dealing very well with the Taliban. They’re very tough, they’re very smart, they’re very sharp. But, you know, it’s been 19 years, and even they are tired of fighting, in all fairness” as the Taliban continued to attack Afghan forces and we continued to draw our forces down.

        As Trump loses the election, he decides to pull everyone out. Rubio responds that it’s “a Saigon-type of situation.” McConnell says “A rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan now would hurt our allies and delight the people who wish us harm.”

        TRUMP pulls everyone except the last 2,500 troops (down from 13,000) after he loses the election.

        That’s the table he set and no way you can’t say he’s not complicit in the Afghanistan retreat.

        That said, yes, Biden took it from there and failed too. Yes, he could of done alternative plans and he could have implemented his plan better but, given the table set by Trump, there are few options, of which I have asked you what you would suggest he have done (beyond doing his plan better which is a no-brainer).

        1. start over, do over, rebuild our forces in Afghanistan
        2. add troops, delay, and leave (remember how fast the Taliban hit before you pick this one)
        3. let Ron DeSantis fix it (although he admires the Taliban culture warriors, just kidding)
        4. cut and run — was the choice
        5. add more troops and then cut n run (what might go wrong with that?)

        Given the table set by Trump, just not sure what better choice Biden could have made although I wish he had implemented his choice better. However, Biden’s withdrawal is still better than Vietnam withdrawal under Nixon, a Republican crook, just like TRUMP.

        Seriously Larry, given 2,500 troops (which is smaller than my highschoo); what would you suggest Biden do beyond doing what he did, only better.

      • Mike f

        We all know that Larry tends to lie when he reviews what happened during the Trump administration. There were absolutely zero decisions made during that regime that benefited the US as far as foreign policy is concerned. Trump’s disastrous pullout from Afghanistan is probably not even the worst of it. Pullout from the Iran nuclear deal was likely worse for the US and the world, and the disastrous decisions that were made regarding tariffs hurt the US farmers immensely. Larry tends to ignore all those through his philosophy “republicans do no wrong-democrats always bad”…

  5. frank stetson

    It’s really too early for predictions but it looks like Trump/DeSantis and Biden/??? right now to me although, frankly, all of these bimbos look dumber than FOX fighting a defamation suit by explaining how they defamed as their defense.

    One scenario possibly forthcoming is watching Larry tell us how he dislikes the antics but loves the policies, except he always pushed back against this policy and that program, and even with his fraud, cheating, and stealing lying over his head, he’s voting for TRUMP…

    Biden should not run but he will; he should mentor a protégé instead. When he first picked Kamala, I thought — how strange to pick one who over-roasted you during the debate, but hey, he’s that kind of guy. Now it seems he picked her for punishment and should cut her loose. Having already tried once, TRUMP will kill Pence as VP, it’s a good election cycle to dump on VPs.

    Trump will dump Pence or his rabid base will say: “huh?” What I have wondered as of late is, given DeSantis jumped up faster than a Mexican jumping bean on it’s way to Martha’s Vineyard, to lend his support to Trump at arraignment, given his attack ads got dumped on, given he is timid about announcement, I am guessing he’s busy thinking about what he learned on his recent road trip to the States and DC, his loss of a number of endorsements, including a number in Florida, his foot faults on PR stunts which are getting more airplay and being scrutinized for intent and results, and the most important unknown – how much money he has pledged from big donors; he might be waving a white flag for Trump to pick him as his protégé and perhaps Trump’s best chance to win. Of course, he has to weigh the cost of losing with Trump in that which could end his Presidential career before it really starts. So he’s tossing some tactical attacks while simultaneously supporting Trump’s weaponization victimhood legal conundrum sort doing a balancing act. A Trump DeSantis ticket is a Maga Dream Team or Deplorable Demon Team depending on your bent.

    I sort of toss off Biden’s 40%+ popularity; it’s early, it’s still a winning number historically and really depends on the economy starting this Spring to Summer. Given the lower covid numbers, could still pull this off. Way to early on that one.

    Bottom line: sans a poison pill, it looks like both these gents are running, albeit with new VPs for both although more likely for Trump. Sad that neither party has a white knight in the wings who actually grew up with the internet, not avoiding it as some newfangled doodad. But if it’s a Trump-DeSantis team, we got big troubles.

    My bottom line of what I want is best said by David Bowie:

    “He wants the young American
    Young American, young American
    He wants the young American
    All right
    Well, he wants the young American”

    At least someone under 60…..

    • Tom

      Great response Frank! I enjoyed it. Yeah FOX news response was really stupid. But I doubt that it will damage them for long since it seems like to many of their viewers, FOX is not just a media outlet, it is code for religion. Yes I agree that both of these seniors should retire and enjoy life a little, especially Biden as his marbles seem to keep falling out of the bag at an increasing rate. And Trump because he may very well get those walls he wanted ,but they will be in the courtyard of Mara-priso. I ROFL when you said, “DeSantis jumped up faster than a Mexican jumping bean on it’s way to Martha’s Vineyard, to lend his support to Trump at arraignment”. And it is so true! But I doubt that DeSantis would ever consent to being Trump’s running mate because: 1: DeSantis is also an alpha male, 2) DeSantis is too young to have his political career ruined by Trump slime all over him. What I strongly think will happen is Marjorie Taylor Green enjoys stroking Trump and will swallow just about anything to fulfill her dream when she hears Karen Carpenter’s song, “Close to You”. But will Melania allow it is the question!? Yes it does appear to be open season on VP’s but I think Biden will be stuck with Harris, and, Biden likes the “Wheels on the Bus” song. And where will our dear friend Larry be? He will still be NEVER liking Trump and cheering for his policies (but not the man because the policies are GOP ya know!) all the way to the White House.

      • Tom

        And my favorite Bowie song was Starman, love that album, classic original David Bowie. Do you think Larry likes David Bowie?

        • larry Horist

          Tom …. I am both amazed and flattered how often you and Frank gratuitously bring up my name in so many of your exchanges — especially when I am not involved in the subject. It is nice to know that you and Frank always think of me — even if what you think is mostly wrong. I fear what would become of your two if I stopped writing. What would be left of your life?

      • frank stetson

        Yeah, probably DeSantis will demure but his latest actions on Trump leave a crack in the door. Plus, with this being TRUMP’S final solution, he could then run unimpaired and with TRUMP’S blessing probably. I think when TRUMP does pick a new VP, Biden’s hands will be free to do the same. But Biden is big headed power monger too so who really knows.

        Bowie probably gives Larry flashbacks to Spanky the Clown….

        Starman is “awful nice” (staying in form). Best Album ever. Did you hear “over the rainbow” in the chorus? Was lucky to catch him often, starting in the early 70’s but only one show with Ronson who I really enjoy the raw unfettered style. Think the best was a big show, everyone was dressed glam, and Bowie had made his first change coming out in Young American suit n tie. Fans loved it. Only time I wore that see-through silver lame shirt as I went to the show with all-the-young-(dateless)-dudes. Glam, “it was such a drag, so many snags….” Think we looked more like nerds from The Big Bang….

  6. JPop

    I’m rooting for Robert Kennedy, Jr.

    • Frank stetson

      Anti vaxer will hurt RFK and his green scene might be a tad extreme.

      There are better Kennedys in the wings IMO.

      • Tom

        I agree. This Kennedy is a loser in this Independent mind too! His only good aspect is name recognition, but when you listen to him long enough you wonder if JFK is rolling over in his grave.

  7. AC

    It is April 2023 and way way to premature for prognostication. However, as many times as people admit it’s “ too early” few are not willingly offering up opinions, predictions, what if, what about, how about, along with, and aspersions against age challenged personages.
    On the last item “age challenged personages”, creating a cut off at 80 in the case of POTUS begs the question of all representatives, senators, and judges aged 80 and older.
    Then, when considering competency in terms of age being negatively related, as years of age (often broken down into months) increase in number, an individual’s work competency decreases. This judgment centered on age in years ushering in distrust of mental acuity as years add up to 80 brings to mind those octogenarians in media, blogs, opinion commentators, authors of books, news print, editorials, and all else possibly of influence. The notion being political candidates of a certain advanced age are viewed as more liability than asset.
    Know this, be they from the political right, left, centrist, progressive, or undecided, all are in the same camp. The aging process that culminates with physical/mental ability loss shows no political preference.
    So, who ya gonna call? Watch Party Conventions on both sides and see where they go.