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If Trump and DeSantis say no to 2024… is a woman next in line?

If Trump and DeSantis say no to 2024… is a woman next in line?

It may seem early to engage in punditry about the 2024 presidential election.  But the political strategizing and maneuvering is already in full gear.  So, what does it look like from this distance?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seemingly pushed back on reports of him being a 2024 GOP candidate for President.  He calls the speculation “absurd.”  His current refusal to run has been made without knowing former President Trump’s intention.  Currently, DeSantis is taking himself out of the race regardless if Trump runs or not.  

It is not likely that DeSantis would run against Trump – and since Trump will not announce his intention for another year or so, DeSantis might not have sufficient time to build an organization and acquire the funds so close to the election.  He may not even want to appear to be setting up a campaign operation while Trump is pondering.  But this is politics, so things can change.

Other candidates less aligned to Trump may not be so conflicted – and could be moving forward.  At this stage, it is difficult to see who would challenge Trump.  So, let us look at 2024 assuming that Trump does not run – which is my current guess.  

It could be a good year for the GOP’s female prospective candidates.  There are three that would be in the lead.  They are former South Carolina Governor and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. 

In terms of record and experience, Haley has several advantages.  She has been an executive and has international credentials that the other potential candidates cannot match.  She is also a very strong campaigner and has much higher name recognition than Ernst or Noem. 

On the downside, Haley would not be the most popular with some of the Trump base.  But she could hold enough of them and pick up those who are not totally attached to Trump.  Another negative is that she comes from a small state.  On the other hand, Haley would be sufficiently popular to pull off a few important primary victories.  Many would see Haley’s Indian ancestry as an additional advantage.

Though one is a senator and the other a governor, politically speaking, Ernst and Noem are very similar.  Both are in good standing with the Trump base – somewhat better than Haley. Both Ernst and Noem are good campaigners – a notch below Haley, however.

Both, like Haley, have the disadvantage of coming from small states that are likely to go with the GOP candidate in 2024 – likely, but not certain.  For that reason, all three of the ladies are likely to pick a big battleground state running mate if they should secure the nomination.

Ernst’s weakness – though not a serious one – is that she lacks government executive experience – generally believed to be beneficial in terms of the bid for the White House.  But her Senate role gives her greater experience on national issues – the stuff with which Washington deals on a daily basis.

Ernst does not face re-election to the Senate until 2026.  That means she can run without giving up her Senate seat – and does not face the prospect of losing an election between now and 2024.

Noem has the executive experience – and some national experience as a two-term member of the U.S. House.  She could run in 2024 without losing her job as Governor, but only IF she gets re-elected in 2022.  She could also not run again and devote all her time to the presidential campaign – as other candidates have done.  But with Trump pondering, Noem probably would not be able to make a definitive decision before the 2022 gubernatorial race.  So … she runs for another term as governor.

There is one advantage that all three have.  They are women.

Democrats have given the nation President Obama – the first minority person to sit in the Oval Office.  Politically, Obama has been regarded as black and African American even though biologically he is 50/50 mixed white and black ancestry.  In 2020, Democrats put the first minority woman into the vice presidency – a twofer in terms of identity politics.

Republicans need to catch up on the diversity issue.  It is a safe bet that the GOP ticket in 2024 will include a woman – if not at the top of the ticket, then as a running mate.  If a man heads the GOP ticket in 2024, it is likely that one of these ladies will be in the second spot.  If President Biden is not running in 2024, you can rest assured that the Democrat ticket will include a woman and could be the first in history to have two women – but that is another story for a future commentary.

A significant question is … would any of these ladies run against Trump in the primaries?  My wild-ass guess – and it is only that – is that neither Ernst nor Noem would challenge Trump.  Haley?  Probably not, but less certain.  That is not to say that Trump will not have primary opponents if he runs, but that it is not likely it will be one of these three ladies.

I am always interested in what my readers think.  So … if you could select one of these women for President of the United States, who would it be?  And why?

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

18 Comments

  1. Ben

    I don’t mind Nimrata Randhawa , I mean, she actually stood up to trump a couple of times.

    • Dan Tyree

      She stood up to Trump and that qualifies her as president? Lol. Maxine Waters and other bimbos so called stood up to Trump and they aren’t qualified to be president But I would like to see Marsha Blackburn go for it.

    • Anonymous

      Oh that doesetves a brain scan. Go get one fast

  2. Joseph S. Bruder

    Ha! Laughing my ass off… Republicans will NEVER select a woman to run for President.

    Desantis has screwed up the COVID response in Florida so bad, that he’ll never recover, and will be lucky to even hold onto the Governor’s office. Haley was so much of a Trump ass-kisser that she’ll never get the Trump-ass-stench off of her. And Lady G’s nose is so brown the And Trump, besides his own COVID screwup, will be in jail anyway. Anyone else available is liable to get caught up in the Jan 6thriot investigation.

    That leaves smarmy creep Cruz and idiot light-weight Rubio… Good luck with that!

    Until Republicans start treating COVID like a real thing, and actually try to do something for people rather than just block Democrats, there’s not much chance of a Republican winning in 2024.

    • Rick

      All I will say to you, liberal, is that you do not know what you are talking about. Get some real news. Your biden is a communist and our country is almost lost because of uninformed people like you. It is not that you are uninformed but that you are informed with false information. Liberals are the biggest threat to our freedom.

    • Elio

      Are you insinuating Hillary is a woman????

    • NavVet

      Hey Joe, great post. It just shows you are a democrat because all you said is repeats of the democrats who have done nothing but lie about Trump. Two bogus trials against him and both failed. That is what happens when every thing you accuse some one of is a lie. No president has don as much to help this country in recent history than Trump and you know it. He stood for the constitution and America’s freedoms, un like your Biden and Camelass.

    • BillY Webster

      So that makes more reason to lock and load

    • Dan Tyree

      You Covid clowns are hilarious. Take care of yourself. You’ll be ok. I get a kick out of you idiots trying to cover retard joe’s stupidity. So stick around for laughs. It’s amazing what’s been coming out of the mouths of the squad and other commie morons on the news. After they get kicked out of office they should try stand up comedy. Did you hear about the felony charges against a US senator and another politician in Wisconsin? Oh wait. They were commiecrats. Breaking champaign laws. Tsk tsk. Some people never learn

  3. frank stetson

    The fact you would even consider EITHER Trump or DeSantis speaks volumes. Both have actually endorsed ideas that have resulted in additional pain, suffering, and death that did not need to occur. Trump on a national basis, DeSantis based on his Florida governance.

    You are in search of real leadership, not these fools. Doesn’t matter; your base is ever shrinking, it’s the Democrats to lose, not yours to win. That ship has passed for now until your party decides to grow, based on platform planks, instead of shrinking through exclusion. You keep telling folks you are inclusive, you are Making America Great Again, but the proof seems to be over 650,000 dead, one of the worst records in the world, one of the worst responses by America. You have rejected NATO, the Paris Accord, the Iran nuclear deal, the UN 1967 resolution, withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership, UNESCO, UN Human Rights Council, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, KORUS, and many more. Worse than rejecting supporters of all of these, is that your side offers no alternatives, no enhancements. At least when they killed NAFTA, they brought it back with a few meager enhancements and then claimed “mission accomplished.” And your side still wants to vacate the World Trade Organization in exchange for pair-wise deals. Basically, your side is opting to close our doors on the world in exchange for one-off deals.

    Then, your side wants to include Russia, who has the economic heavy-weight clout of Italy, in the G7. Your side ends the Singapore agreement and “enhances” it by working directly with North Korea while excluding the rest of world claiming he has solved the NK nuclear problem, “mission accomplished.” They knuckled under to Turkey’s dictator and threw the Kurds under the bus, have totally messed with Ukraine, basically made the EU distrust us, at best. Not exactly a party working on inclusion.

    No, Larry, I don’t think your question is who is going to run for the Republican party, think your question is can anyone save the Republican party from their ultimate conclusion of circling the toilet bowl. Think this one is for the Democrats to loose; the Republicans just can’t win on their own given the current party status. Think that’s what you get from pinching your nose so hard, for so long. You have lost your sense of smell. And your recent track record stinks. At least to the majority of Americans.

    Putin likes your party though. So does Kim Jong-Un. As does Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Brazilian President and covid killer Jair Bolsonaro is pro Trump, did a few dinners together, Viktor Orbán of Hungary where there is no freedom of the Press and human rights organizations are criminalized, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, and then there’s Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who told reporters that Trump faced “a serious and tough enemy” after the death of George Floyd ands pledged his support to Trump.

    No, Larry, I think you have foundational work to do in your own party before you put anyone up to run against the Democrats. Remember, we have Pelosi and Schumer to keep the lid on our Progressives and their movement. Our far-lefties don’t own our Party, yet. You have capitulated all to the ragged right, you pretend centrists still exist, but you are few, far between, and like you —- mostly howling like dogs at the moon you can never have. You have lost your Party to the zealots.

    But keep avoiding the masks, don’t get those vaccines, get together for rallies and motorcycle weeks. After the Sturgis, SD cases multiplied by over six times in the following two weeks giving SD the award for largest percentage increase in the nation. Granted, small numbers still, but a the county that held it has a 1,150% increase. They went from 20 cases in two week to 330 cases in two weeks. They doubled the hospitalization from what occurred in the second surge. Imagine what they exported to others states. Less Republicans will be the result.

    No, Larry, your work begins at home. I would focus there, not on who runs or what they run against. It’s about what your party, and it’s candidates run for.

    • Florida Phil

      I believe that you intended to state “Democrats are “too loose” to win.

  4. Navycorpsman42

    America could never survive a woman president.

  5. Mike

    Larry, your dream ticket would be Jeb! and Mitt.

  6. NavVet

    Our dream ticket would be any one with out a “D” after their name as dose Jeb and Mitt. Both traitors to their party and America.

  7. Glenn S

    Larry, I respect and appreciate your opinions although I don’t always agree with them. Personally I’m not sure a female candidate would be a smart move for the GOP at this time, unless she was just obviously and overpoweringly qualified, which any of these might be – I’ll admit I don’t know. I believe a conservative majority of Americans are sick to death of anything even hinting of liberalism, including the untested notion of a female leading our floundering country. Not saying it’s wrong, just saying I don’t think it’s the time to test those waters with the U.S. voter base.

    At the mention of opinions that I don’t agree with, whether you believe the 2020 election was really stolen or not, perhaps a bit of commentary and enlightenment on the progress or failures of nationwide efforts to bolster election mechanisms might be helpful. Can’t hurt to beef them up, even if you don’t think they failed in 2020, right?

  8. Rat Wrangler

    The best woman for the job is the one that ran in the 2020 election, was on the ballot in all 50 states, and still got ignored by the media, the Presidential Debate Commission, and both major parties. I am speaking of Dr. Jo Jorgensen. Had she been permitted to join the debates, she would likely have beaten both of the other candidates but, sadly, our system is designed for only two parties, and does not permit fair treatment of a third.

  9. rick

    Our country is in too much trouble right now to try a new experiment. Our elections are being stolen by multi billionaire communist, globalist, demonic psychopaths. Our white house and capital are full of those demonic PsychoWhacos. At this point it is so bad that only Yahuwah can save us. Repent and pray hard.

  10. RAYMOND BERRY

    I’m from south dakota and have followed Kristi from the time she first run for a state office seat. It would be far better for Her to run for us senator to replace Thune, or Rounds who ever chooses to retire first.