Trump is reshaping the Middle East for the better
Assuming that the 14 missiles that Iran fired at the American Al Udeid military base in Qatar were the sum total of their “retaliation” – and that Iran will maintain a ceasefire – we can see just how broken Iran is, and how fearful the leaders are of the United States.
Iran did not retaliate. They launched a few missiles as a propaganda event for local consumption. The folks in Tehran alerted both President Trump and Qatar in advance of the attack. That meant 13 of the missiles were shot down by Qatar and the United States. One is reported to have landed in a remote location. None of the missiles were intended to damage American assets or kill Americans. The Supreme Leader – assuming he is still in charge – understood that a serious attack on America would have resulted in a blitzkrieg, including a possible attack on Iran’s political leadership.
Trump has said that his goal is a real peace agreement. Comparatively, however, a ceasefire is a lot easier than a peace agreement. The first and foremost problem is the fact that the Iranian leadership cannot be trusted … period. Despite the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, Iran never gave up its nuclear ambitions. Wendy Sherman, one of the negotiators of the JCPOA agreement, said that at the time of the agreement, they were totally unaware of the Fordow nuclear facility. That shows how bad the monitoring was.
A peace agreement would require Iran to abandon its official 46-year primary goal – the destruction and elimination of the Jewish state. Their “death to Israel” mantra goes beyond the elimination of the Jewish state. Their avowed, official and stated policy is the genocidal extermination of Jews. That belief is what made possible the years of Iran’s coordinated, combined terrorist attacks on Israel and the savage slaughtering of innocent civilian men, women, and children in an orgy of bloodshed on October 7, 2023.
Another major obstacle to a permanent peace agreement are the conditions. While it may be referred to as an “agreement,” it is about negotiating the terms of surrender. Iran has been defeated. It must either agree to talk terms for ending the conflict or face more of its military being crushed and the nation’s infrastructure further damaged. The goal is to render Iran unable to ever produce a nuclear weapon – including easy-to-produce dirty bombs – and never to be able to enrich uranium to the 90 percent weapons-grade level.
Iran has several benefits in working out an eventual peace agreement. It would end future military actions. Sanctions would be removed. It would cease to be a pariah among the world of nations – including Arab nations. The people of Iran would enjoy peace and prosperity – and mobility. A meaningful peace agreement would give the regime in Tehran the only chance it has to survive – although I wouldn’t bet on it in the long run.
Any new agreement will not be like the Obama administration’s JCPOA agreement in 2015. Unfortunately, that agreement allowed Iran to possess and enrich uranium – and failed in the essential policy to “trust but verify.” In the erroneous belief that the United States had achieved a meaningful goal, the Tehran regime was allowed to continue building and deploying its terrorist network. The Obama administration even released billions of dollars to Iran – including millions of dollars in cash shipped on pallets in a private plane.
Any peace agreement will include the total elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, even for commercial use. That is important because any level of uranium enrichment still enables Iran to produce so-called “dirty bombs.”
A complete ban would be easier to monitor because it would eliminate the need for uranium, centrifuges, etc. Many nations meet their energy needs without nuclear power. Uranium requirements – such as for medical equipment – could be imported and monitored.
If Iran retains the means to enrich uranium, effective monitoring is an essential provision. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have to be provided 100 percent access to any location at its discretion. The Agency was thwarted several times in the past – despite the JCPOA agreement.
Another provision is likely to be the surrender of Iran’s current stock of enriched uranium, which has been secreted away if not destroyed in the bombing. Finding an acceptable recipient will not be easy. For many reasons, it is not likely to be Israel or the United States.
Then there is the issue of terrorism. Eliminating Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons does not address its role as the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism. Iran will be required to cease funding proxy terrorist groups.
Iran should be required to disband the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the quasi-independent paramilitary terrorist organization. That was the organization headed by Major General Qasem Soleimani, whom Trump killed during his previous term.
In many ways, de-fanging Iran represents the last of the major nations sponsoring or supporting terrorism. Though the post-war period in Iraq was mishandled by President Bush, the situation in Iraq is measurably better today than during the brutal reign of Saddam Hussein. While Iraq has domestic terrorist groups – including the remnants of ISIS – they are not funded by the government and have had diminishing influence. The United States maintains two major military bases and more than 2,500 soldiers in Iraq.
At one time, Libya, under Muammar Gaddafi, was the chief state sponsor of terrorism – including the attack on the Jewish village at the 1972 Munich Olympics and the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. That ended when President Reagan bombed the presidential palace in Tripoli in 1986. Gaddafi was later deposed and killed in 2011.
Another supporter of terrorism against Israel was Russian ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He was deposed in a civil uprising in 2024. The new government – headed by former leaders of al-Qaeda – has signaled its interest in establishing more positive ties to Israel and the Western world. The new regime is very anti-Russian. Thanks to Israel, the most powerful terrorist organizations in the Middle East – Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – have been diminished or destroyed.
In terms of the ceasefire – and the negotiations to follow – Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are giving Iran an offer they cannot refuse. One can only hope that Trump and Netanyahu will be tough in their demands. In a very real sense, it should be a fait accompli.
If Iran does not accept the harsh terms – or if their strategy is to delay – the military option should be quickly pursued. Another round of pounding by Israel – and perhaps the United States — would likely result in regime change.
Trump is craftily guiding the Middle East to a better future. There may be more bumps in the road, but the direction and the momentum are in Trump’s and America’s favor.
So, there ‘tis.
The author is obsessed with war and our war with Iran. His knickers knotted, his hair aflame, he spews his vent as to our accomplishments in the mission he alone seems to know. Over 11 days, 8 of his 12 stories are on, or touch on, Iran. On his latest obsession, the author claims: “Wendy Sherman, one of the negotiators of the JCPOA agreement, said that at the time of the agreement, they were totally unaware of the Fordow nuclear facility. That shows how bad the monitoring was.” I can’t source his quote, probably spot on, but wonder about the context given it looks like a lie.
Wendy Sherman, in a quote I can source, actually said: “The US was aware of Fordow’s existence and even commissioned a weapon designed to penetrate underground facilities like Fordow, though its effectiveness against the facility and all enriched uranium within it remained uncertain.” Sherman knew the US became aware of Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment plant in 2009 and they were installing 3,000 centrifuges. The JCPOA was 2015. I think the author is wrong, his statements to Wend cannot stand without context. It makes me wonder if he got anything right? Given the egregious nature of this mistake, no need to read more. Unless he can prove his point that Wendy contradicted all her other statements.
Sherman emphasizes that while facilities can be destroyed, knowledge of nuclear technology cannot be eliminated. If Fordow were bombed, Iran could likely rebuild it within two years, potentially underground and in secret. In other words, the program is not OBLIDERATED even if the facility is.
According to Sherman, The JCPOA included restrictions aimed at closing off pathways to obtaining fissile material, including the uranium enrichment pathways at Natanz and Fordow. The deal aimed to end enrichment activities at Fordow and reduce Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. While acknowledging tangible progress in addressing concerns about Fordow and other sites, Sherman also highlighted that critical gaps remained, particularly concerning uranium enrichment capacity.
Trump ended all that in 2018, had no alternative, and Iran took the next 7 years to enhance its programs. IOW — Trump left Biden a mess in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iran. Biden was set up in Afghanistan and then screwed the pooch on the mess left. He could not regain any trust in Iran.
Again, hope Trump has better luck. Certainly, is short on the skills side.
The author is obsessed with war, has one now, and he is obsessing again with yet another in his endless plethora of stories lamenting how some are asking questions, pushing back, and fighting for the truth. He immediately let go of Trump’s “no new wars on my watch” as positive against a sneak attack on another sovereign nation. Worse than a sneak attack, we misdirected them with lies about peace and then bombed them. Let’s face it, this President lies, embellishes, braggadocios, all the time as a defense against being pinned down on facts. Why not push back on that crap instead of accepting it as the author mostly does?
Pete Hegseth uttered that Trump pulled off “the most complex and secretive military operation in history.” To my father and the rest of the Greatest Generation just let me say, with all due respect, and in a language you understand but Pete does not: it’s a SNAFU. To my generation flying the skies over and trudging thought the jungles and swamps of Vietnam, let me say: FUCK YOU ESTABLISHMENT PIGS. How dare you lie this way and how dare the author slap you on the back for it. Practicing the old “when down in the polls, launching a few missiles will pick you up.” Trump had claimed to not start wars, now he’s just another Democrat in that regard.
“We have come to understand that NOTHING President Trump says or does is immune from venal and petty attacks by the evergreen anti-Trump Resistance Movement—exacerbated by what is often called Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), marked by extreme frustration, bitterness, and irrational anger.” OMG — this guy is bringing back his Nixonian whines. These whines don’t get better with age. In case the author has not noticed: Trump lies a lot. For example, when he says “two weeks to make a decision,” tells them his peace-man is in the air ready to join them to sue for peace, and then sneak attacks Iran — seems like a lie being told. As the mother of all bombs fall to Iran, the Japanese say — thank you for going all Pearl Harbor on their asses, we look better now. When he says “obliterated,” that does not even pass the basic sniff test. How would he know? And do they still have 880 lbs of enriched uranium which is enough to make 10 bombs? Most think yes given Trump’s earlier warnings and the fact it takes about ten cars to transport. Most think YES, especially since Iran said so too. Some time ago. Perhaps you call it petty to push back on that, I call it necessary to thwart this lying felon.
Yes, bold move on the mission, and execution. Further, it’s obvious, and always has been, that we can destroy infrastructure of any country in a matter of days. But NOTHING HAS CHANGED in Iran so I hope his swinging for the fences produces changes in Iran. The author misses the subtlety and nuance of our sneak attack versus Iran’s announced attack which the President approved via phone call with Iran. Weird.
Yes, we damaged their nuclear program, if there is one. Because remember, if Iran was trying to build a bomb, the NYTimes concludes: “If Iran is truly pursuing a nuclear weapon — which it officially denies — it is taking more time than any nuclear-armed nation in history. The United States developed the Manhattan Project in four years or so, developing the bombs dropped at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end the war in the Pacific. The Soviet Union conducted its first test in 1949, only four years later. India, Pakistan and Israel all sped the process to within a few years. Work on bomb triggers is reported by spies to have stopped in 2003, but Trump and Netanyahoo feel it’s started again. No evidence provided, just trust Netanyahoo who does not trust us. And that’s the point: we really don’t know.
Again, the NYTimes: “It was only when the Obama administration struck the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the United States got a fuller picture of its capabilities, thanks to the work of inspectors. And those inspections were choked off — and many security cameras disabled — after Mr. Trump declared the nuclear accord a “disaster” and withdrew from it.”
And that’s when the centrifuges started scaling up again, the inspectors stonewalled again.
Concluding from the Times: “Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: “With the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.””
Let’s think about it: every time we turn around, Iran will have the bomb in a year or less. Just like now. Most countries take a few years to develop; Iran’s be at it for over 20. Even if we destroyed the enriched uranium, the centrifuges, they have the scientists, the material, if not still intact, is easily gained from Putin or North Korea, why would anyone think they are pushed back five years when they were only one year or less out? They don’t need to produce more uranium, they have the brains, they don’t need centrifuges —— seems like two years or less would be the number given they were only a year out when the bombs fell.
Point is Trump’s “obliterated” is a lie that the author no doubt poo-poo’s as “braggadocio” which is fucking-a-skippy to the author who makes up his own reality. Government is serious business, there is no place for lies, braggadocio, embellishments, and more lies. “(Trump? Exaggerate?), says the author sarcastically. He is unapologetic and accepting of lies because he has “normalized” the behavior. I say stop the lies and shun the liars. Just because it’s legal does not make it right. We need serious people to tell us the truth. Clowns belong in the circus and any President clowning around SHOULD face significant pushback from press, politicians, and the public alike. Fact is that IF he lied about this one, then what else don’t we know?