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The reality about the independent voter

The reality about the independent voter

The common impression is that being an “Independent” voter is a good thing.  Most folks believe that the designation suggests objectivity and independence from partisanship. I have long believed that neither attribute is correct.

Because of the “image,” a plurality of registered voters are independents.  According to Pew Research, Independents currently represent 35 percent of the electorate.   Democrats are 33 percent and Republicans 32 percent.

I have long contended that we are mistaken to think of Independent voters as objective or “undecided.”  Au Contraire.  Rather, Independents are largely partisan Democrats and committed Republicans who prefer to call themselves Independents.  I base my belief on more than 50 years of experience in analyzing polls and election results – and specific experience with voters.

Consider some of the more prominent personalities who claim to be Independent – Bernie Sanders, Angus King, Joe Scarborough to name a few.  It is almost impossible to find one who is not aligned to one of the two major parties – and will vote accordingly

Pew Research has now given my theory significant credibility.  They report that Independent partisan “leaners” – as they  call them — divide along the same fault line as those registered by party affiliation. When the leaners are added to the those registered by party affiliation, we find that 48 percent of total voters are Democrat — and 48 percent are Republican voters. That leaves only 4 percent who might be considered “undecided.”

In other words, we have Democrats and Republican voters who – for one reason or another – do not register according to their party preference.  But they have a decided preference.   That is why analyzing polls simply as the percentage of Republicans, Democrats and Independents is meaningless.  There may be a very small undecideds in an election cycle, but most Independents will be found in their camp.

When we put partisan Independents into the column in which they belong we get a more accurate sense of voting reality.  We can see how evenly divided America is today.  

If we look at the Pew polling trend line, Republicans gained since the 2020 presidential election – when Democrats were 51 percent of the voters – registered and Independent leaners – and Republicans were 46 percent.  That means only 3 percent could be considered to have been undecided in 2020.

The problem is a popular confusion between the meaning of “Independent” and “undecided.”   No matter what they call themselves – or even claim they are undecided – history and statistics suggest that 96 percent of the 2024 vote is already baked in – and already being cast in the earliest of the early voting states.

Of course, not all registered Republicans will vote Republican, just as all registered Democrats will vote Democrat.  That is a different issue, different polling and different analysis.

While declaring oneself as an Independent has a certain snobby appeal, I see them as one of the problems in our electoral process – just as much as the non-voter.  The problem is not found as much in the general elections as in the primaries.  Independent voters do not participate in most primary elections – leaving the choice of candidates to a smaller number of declared partisans.

It is a very small percentage of registered voters – and even a smaller percentage of eligible voters – who pick the candidates for the general elections.  This also means that the dogmatic and fringe voters on both sides have a disproportionate influence in picking the candidates.

When it was a Biden/Trump contest, up to 70 percent of voters said they did not like either candidate.   So, how did they win their primaries?  Simple.  The hardcore base of the two parties picked them.   The larger number of eligible and independent voters – a majority, in fact — were not involved in that process.  They took a pass on picking the candidates.

While Independent voters are NOT as independent as we are led to believe, their absence from the primaries does have a negative impact on the elections.  The same as those who waste votes on third party candidates or simply do not vote.  America is by tradition and legal structure a two party political nation. If you do not join one side or the other, you are out of the game … period.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So, there ‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of businessman, conservative writer and political strategist Larry Horist. Larry has an extensive background in economics and public policy. For more than 40 years, he ran his own Chicago based consulting firm. His clients included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. Larry professional emphasis has been on civil rights and education. He was consultant to both the Chicago and the Detroit boards of education, the Educational Choice Foundation, the Chicago Teachers Academy and the Chicago Academy for the Performing Arts. Larry has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and has lectured at colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern and DePaul. He served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. Larry has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries have appeared on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by audiences for his style, substance and sense of humor. Larry retired from his consulting business to devote his time to writing. His books include a humorous look at collecting, “The Acrapulators’ Guide”, and a more serious history of the Democratic Party’s role in de facto institutional racism, “Who Put Blacks in That PLACE? -- The Long Sad History of the Democratic Party’s Oppression of Black Americans ... to This Day”. Larry currently lives in Boca Raton, Florida.

4 Comments

  1. Darren

    Until Trump entered the Political arena, you might say I was an independent Voter as well.
    I voted Republican, but did that really matter?
    Both sides were the Flip side of corruption. Bush never did what the American people overwhelmingly asked for
    as HE new better than all of us!
    Clinton, same thing as they allowed us to pay taxes in their world.
    Thank you by the way!
    Trumps popularity is because when he came down the escalator, Trump was the mouth piece for
    at least half of America and what they were asking for.
    Trumps Base IS the Independent Voter. What you are referring to as Independent are just people who either can not make up their mind,
    or can not do a good job articulating the facts they here.
    This would explain why the independent vote is not that large.
    People vote for what is best for them.
    Facts are irrelevant in most cases.
    If you are getting rich under the migrant explosion, you are for Kamala.
    Be Damned what it is doing for our country, or who gets hurt along the way.
    I do not see the undecided vote as that big an issue.
    These people have already made up their minds over a year ago!

    Reply
  2. Andrew Gutterman

    BEST article I’ve seen you write. And very convincing. So now we have the battle of the “experts” Gallup just declared Trump is likely to win the popular vote, but a couple of other forecasters have picked Harris. It’s going to be a nail biter right up through the 5th, and maybe even later. Too close to call.

    Reply
  3. AC

    I have been an independent critical thinker 50+ years. Learning how one thinks critically was part of my school curriculum beginning about the 8th Grade and following. My high school instilled the objective facts unadorned by what was the philosophy (bias) of the day. Independent thinkers eschew opinion, especially the politically founded kind. Conservative vs Liberal and progressive were labels more akin to temperament not political parties.
    Not until Donald Trump appeared with his characteristic bravado and reality TV genre fake intelligence (all facts then and now) did I change my independent political philosophy land solidly in the decided camp. Trump represents the antithesis of objective critical thinking philosophy and practice. True demonstrable facts which are generally accepted societal norms do not appear important.
    In my experience working in the real world where prejudice, avarice, greed, self-aggrandizement appeared to be ingrained in successful individuals. While another kind of successful individuals opposed prejudicial biases. Humility vs pride, grace vs vindictive, altruistic vs greed, net givers vs consummate takers, others orientation vs self promotion.
    Admittedly, these two personal characteristics are at the extreme ends on a personality type continuum. A minority among humans present to the world as either extreme person type. In the main, the majority have a character type along that continuum exhibiting some of one or the other type. An individuals character, usually, does not appear as a combination type. We are of the humble strength positive personality. We may have a personality containing aggressive controlling temperament, competitive to our core, incapacity for empathy, unawareness of our negativity, and shame induced true apologetic spirit
    Independent reasoning individuals seek truth in the absolute sense while constructing an accurate context in which facts from discovery through life experiences come together completely and form an answer and not a million more open ended questions.
    Trump and individuals like him follow after him. The compound issues and not solve the overriding issues causing real and deepening divisions among fellow citizens. Central factor causing seemingly un-mendable fractures is disrespect for others as co-citizens of the human race.
    Independently speaking, these are the indisputable true facts. Say what you may, your opinion does not change no will it change that which is, and remains constant.

    Reply
  4. AC

    Conservatives are unable to critically think objectively. Liberals, too, are so convicted of the correctness in their political philosophy that objective critical thought happens only after facts convince them otherwise.
    Critical thinkers contemplate the tainted nature of political philosophy with independent apolitical clarity.
    Our current political environment is polluted with toxic personal competitiveness. Before Trump came on the U.S.political stage on the federal level, governing was its usual normal confounding complicated democratic republic. After Trump’s descending on the golden staircase and began his infecting influence on the Republican Party’s most loyal advocates.
    Objective facts reveal Trump’s personal state of amoral world view created chaos and uncontrollable turmoil with whatever he touched. Common sense logic will recognize and call out people and organizations manifesting manipulative intent who take unmerited benefit through confidence schemes. These are the facts even the least objective thinking biased individual should recognize enough about and understand what consequences we the people are paying in Trump’s disruptive wake.
    Take a critical objective assessment of our nation’s history relative to rate of progress numbers beginning with the 21st Century. Divide the time by years prior to 2015, from 2016 to 2020, and 2020 through to present day. What will conservative thinkers come back with? How do liberals and progressives see our nation’s progress rate? Then, what direction is our nation’s rate of progress tending from an objective person’s perspective?
    Ultimately, which perspective view will be correct and trusted more? Prediction! None!
    Trust between our various political opinions and within a dominate political opinion can not always come to an agreement. Each individual stakes out their identity turf and will fight for their sovereignty over others. This, too, is on the increase due to Trump’s negative influence and normalization of ME FIRST mentality

    Reply

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