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State by State, More Guns Does Not Equal More Crime 

State by State, More Guns Does Not Equal More Crime 

States with a higher percentage of legal gun ownership do not experience higher crime rates, reports Fox News. 

Using a compilation of FBI data from 2019 and Rand Corporation data from 2016, Fox News Digital produced a series of charts to demonstrate a lack of causality between the percentage of gun owners and crime rate.

The report is a riposte to Democrats’ claims that record-breaking gun sales during the pandemic led to increased crime.

“Gun ownership is higher in states with fewer restrictions, and homicide rates in these states are lower [because] people can protect themselves,” explains George Mason University Professor Emerita Joyce Lee Malcolm, adding that a significant portion of would-be burglars are “scared off, shot at, wounded, or captured by an armed victim.”

John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, shared a similar opinion after reviewing the data compiled by Fox News Digital. 

“The explanation is simple,” says Lott, “while you might take some guns away from criminals, if you primarily have law-abiding people obeying the ban, you mainly disarm law-abiding people and make it easier for criminals to commit crime.” In addition, murder and homicide rates are almost guaranteed to increase when a jurisdiction implements a gun ban. 

Unfortunately, these are not concepts the Biden Administration seems able to grasp. 

“I respect the culture and the tradition and the concerns of lawful gun owners, [but] at the same time, the Second Amendment, like all other rights, is not absolute,” said President Joe Biden in May following the school shooting in Uvalde, TX. 

“This isn’t about taking away anyone’s rights…It’s about protecting children. It’s about protecting families. It’s about protecting whole communities. It’s about protecting our freedoms to go to school, to a grocery store, to a church without being shot and killed.”

Ironic that Biden speaks of protecting “freedoms” while pushing for laws that would remove the ability of law-abiding citizens to protect themselves from people who do not obey the law. 

Consider this: 

Montana has the highest percentage of gun ownership in the nation, with roughly 66% of households owning at least one firearm. Massachusetts has the lowest percentage of gun ownership at just 14.7%. 

In 2019, Montana reported 1.5 gun murders per 100,000 residents and Massachusetts reported 1.25. 

Delaware, which has a gun ownership rate of 34%, reported nearly 4 gun murders per 100,000 residents in 2019 and California, which often touts its strict gun control policies, reported nearly 3 gun murders per 100,000 in 2019. 

“The short answer is that there is absolutely no statistical evidence to that effect showing some casual relationship” between gun sales and violent crime, argues Heritage Foundation Legal Fellow Amy Swearer.

Though the report does not include data from 2020, there is no reason to believe that the increase in gun buying during the pandemic caused the increase in violent crime that we saw in 2020. In fact, the increase in crime may have driven an increase in gun sales as Americans felt a need to better protect themselves and their families. 

Violent crime in the United States has decreased steadily over the past three decades until recently, when a combination of economic, humanitarian, political, and racial crises created never-before-seen tensions among American citizens, explains Heritage Foundation Senior Legal Fellow Cully Stimson. “That and that alone rebuts the argument that increased legal gun ownership has contributed to this spike in crime. What, they didn’t do it for 30 years? Even though they bought tens of millions of guns between 92 and now.”

Sources:

States with higher rate of gun ownership do not correlate with more gun murders, data show 

These States Have the Highest Rates of Gun Violence and Deaths 

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13 Comments

  1. Mark

    You’re right. Most people are law abiding. Why should we be punished for the actions of scum? I’m not having any of it

  2. frank stetson

    Alice’s article “State by State, more guns does not equal more crime,” is some pretty shoddy stuff where Alice:
    – shows us four states to discuss gun homicide. Alice must think homicide = all crime and state by state equals four states.
    – “Using a compilation of FBI data from 2019 and Rand Corporation data from 2016,” in 2022 is not exactly fresh data and the dual credit means one or the other didn’t have all the data and we’ve got a data mash up going on. Always problematic.
    – Alice’s claims: “The report is a riposte to Democrats’ claims that record-breaking gun sales during the pandemic led to increased crime.” She did not even look at pandemic-years data.
    – Alice later doubles down on this omission with: “…there is no reason to believe that the increase in gun buying during the pandemic caused the increase in violent crime that we saw in 2020,” given the 2019 data fits your spin. Why even look?
    – Alice includes “expert” testimony: “Gun ownership is higher in states with fewer restrictions, and homicide rates in these states are lower [because] people can protect themselves,” of course the data does not show that gun ownership in this state ever stopped any homicide, or that somehow gun ownership magically stops gun murders before they start.
    – More expertise, John Lott the failed gunnie statistician says: “if you primarily have law-abiding people obeying the ban, you mainly disarm law-abiding people and make it easier for criminals to commit crime.” The data doesn’t conclude that, but a nice thought.

    Alice concludes: “In addition, murder and homicide rates are almost guaranteed to increase when a jurisdiction implements a gun ban,” without a shred of evidence. The data she provides to prove all this is: Montana has…66% of households owning at least one firearm. Massachusetts has the lowest percentage of gun ownership at just 14.7%. In 2019, Montana reported 1.5-gun murders per 100,000 residents and Massachusetts reported 1.25. Delaware, which has a gun ownership rate of 34%, reported nearly 4-gun murders per 100,000 residents in 2019 and California, which often touts its strict gun control policies, reported nearly 3-gun murders per 100,000 in 2019.

    One problem is Alice is only looking at gun homicides, not death by gun. Big difference. But, given Alice’s parsing, the sourced link is based on the CDC review. It supports Alice’s data, more or less, but it shows all states, state by state. As you can see, Alice left out the South which blows away her conclusions. Sorry Alice, Fox is wrong. Once again, you shoulda looked.

    https://www.criminalattorneycincinnati.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/comparing-gun-control-homicides-4.png

    Meanwhile, if we open the data to all gun deaths, Alice is completely blown out of the water as it is evident to even the casual observer that more guns = more gun death, and looser gun laws = more guns. Her poster state of Montana is one of the worst gun death states in the Union. Here’s the source: https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/firearms-death-rate-per-100000/?activeTab=map&currentTimeframe=0&selectedDistributions=firearms-death-rate-per-100000&selectedRows=%7B%22wrapups%22:%7B%22united-states%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

    I honestly can’t figure why Montana is the gun death capitol but seems to exist in a gun murder void, but there it is. Must be lots of suicides and accidents….. Hunters with terrible aim? But the rest of the story is the same, states with tough gun laws have less guns and less gun deaths, and states with loose gun laws, and more guns, more gun death — OR what we call: The South. Like anything guns, there are anomalies like cities with tough gun laws surrounded by loose gun law States, and Vermont, but for the most part — more guns equals more gun deaths.

    • Joe Gilbertson

      You are making an awful lot of excuses and caveats here, citing some pretty obscure links.I’m sure if you keep digging you will find more answers that you like and will believe them rather than actually absorbing the data that is in front of you that you do not agree with.

      That is a pretty serious case of confirmation bias that you are nourishing.

      • frank stetson

        Yeah, Kaiser Foundation is pretty obscure, sure. And the other one indeed is some lawyer, I wondered if you would pick up on that, but if you would learn to read, I told you: “the sourced link is based on the CDC review” and I even said it aligned with her data, which I guess you feel is totally obscure as well. IT IS CDC data, the same source that Alice used. Pretty funny from a guy who’s main source is Epoch Times, totally backed by Falun Gong.

        It you think Alice’s rendition holds water, so be it. Everything I said is factual. You have proven none of it isn’t with your feckless diatribe.

        Confirmations bias: did you even read Alice’s piece. I was being kind not to mention Fox, who is queen of the pigs compared to Alice’s other sources: John Lott and Heritage Group. At least right-winger Malcom has the pedigree and has made her case in the past. Not sure what she is talking about here, not Alice’s story, that’s for sure. But I let all that go given Alice does source things regularly. I tend to look at the facts versus your style of discounting all based on your perceived peccadillos as to the source.

        But hey, if you ever want to discuss issues, I am your huckleberry. But this shit is lame and basically useless.

        • frank stetson

          ps: left off the RAND corp as a source, another biased organization which, again, I accepted for the data, not their beliefs.

          But I do smell a rat given multiple sources for data to construct these results. It’s a data mash up and that’s never good. But hey, good enough for Joe because he likes the answer.

    • Fiddle playEr

      Alice is right. So get over it

      • Ben

        Alice is wrong, the proof can be found above.

  3. Micala

    Come on people. The Bottomline here why deluded Dems keep trying to take away law abiding American’s guns IS BECAUSE MOST DEMS ARE ABSOLUTELY AFRAID OF THEIR OWN SHADOWS — a law abiding American with a gun for protection is a NIGHTMARE to the scaredy pants democrats who are so afraid to even pick up a gun, much less shoot it!

    PLUS, Dems are just not very intelligent any more! They used to have some smarts, but now they are Braindead stupid! Look at the Afghanistan Troop Removal! Look at our OPEN BORDERS that are letting Terrorists inside our Nation along with illegals who want to suckle our economy dry! These two instances are prime reasons that NO DEMOCRAT BELONGS IN THE WHITE HOUSE NOR IN D.C. PERIOD! They do not know how to run a Country….ever!

    All the rest of the reasoning behind Joe boy’s decisions on anything is nothing but crap. DEMS MAKE PATHETIC LEADERS AND BY REMOVING OUR GUNS THEY THINK THRU CAN CONTROL US??? They have the minds of a child and will never be able to control our Nation because they all think they are victims and we should feel sorry for them! I feel sorry for them long enough to kick that POS biddyboy out the window and onto the curb where he really belongs…

    • Fiddle player

      Simple solution. Never give up your guns

      • Ben

        Yes, never surrender. Better yet, hide them where the sun don’t shine.

    • Ben

      Two year old found under father’s dead body at American 4th of July Parade.

      Yeah, all we need is more guns and better mental health.

      One out of two ain’t good.

      FOX says he’s a pot head nagged by women, OK, we have things to work on. Shun the women, Tucker has spoken. Well, just the domineering ones, the subservient ones can stay. Well, I guess they were staying anyways :>)

      • Larry kuhn

        Get over it asshole. We’re keeping our guns. And it’s stupid people like you that need mental health care. It been proven that Alice is right. Don’t have a gun if you don’t want one. That’s fine with me. But keep your comrades away from mine. I might need it to protect my home and family next time the lowlifes riot. The militants on the left will stir the pot and make it happen.

        • Fiddle player

          The 2 year old was sheltered by his dad. I still see no reason to surrender our gun rights. Most gun control laws should be removed. They only screw the honest law abiding citizens. I’ll never comply.

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