HORIST: Will Iran provoke a war? Seems more likely every day
No one wants a war. No one ever does – at least no civilized people. Wars happen because one side wants something – land, resources, treasure or supremacy of one sort or another – and they perceive the other side to be weak and vulnerable.
The best way to prevent a serious war is to have a very strong defensive military – and an absolute willingness to use it when necessary. That means an occasional decisive pushback against aggressors who test the water, so to speak.
There is already war going on in the Middle East – whether it is the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan or al-Qaeda and ISIS in regions of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and several nations in sub-
Saharan Africa. Though the Middle East has more factions than the Italian Parliament, the centerpiece of the conflict is Iran. It is a superpower among the failed and weaker states over which it holds varying degrees of hegemony.
Iran is the enemy of the United States and much of the civilized world like no other. They attack American assets. They take American hostages. They promote and finance anti-American terrorism. Neither Russia, China or North Korea pose the same level of direct and active threat to the United States. We may look upon them as adversaries, but they are not sponsoring international terrorism against America. They do, however, maintain an uncomfortably close and entirely too cooperative relationship with Iran.
Following World War II, America was clearly the most powerful nation on earth – and the only nuclear power. For almost 50 years we engaged in a Cold War standoff with the old Soviet Union – and to a lesser degree with China. With the collapse of the U.S.S.R., America again emerged as the king of the international mountain.
But not so today – and the question is why.
It is quite simple. We can brag about the most powerful military on earth, but we have demonstrated that we are unwilling to use it to end proxy wars and brushfire conflicts. We deadlocked in Korea, lost the war in Vietnam, pulled out of Iraq prematurely and now seem to be ending America’s longest war with a precipitous no-win withdrawal in Afghanistan.
In response to America’s perceived weakness, Iran is expanding its influence in the Middle East, interfering with shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, waging war on our allies in the region – most notably the recent attack on the Saudi refinery. Almost since the overthrow of the Peacock Throne held by the last Shah of Iran, the clerics have financed and equipped Hamas and Palestinian terrorists in their attacks on Israel. They use the Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabia.
While American politicians – including President Trump – give the highest priority to avoid a war with Iran, we are already in it. The only question is whether we – and our allies – will muster the courage to stop Iran much like we stopped Germany in two world wars. There can be no world peace as long as Iran’s main objective is to bring down the United States and all those they consider the Infidels. While we fight for peaceful settlements, Iran fights for victory.
We should do everything we can to avoid wars – but NOT at all costs. Iran is ramping up because the western world is backing down. The mullahs in Tehran and the Taliban in Afghanistan see victory by waiting for America to leave the region.
The Taliban will again take over Afghanistan. After all, if the shaky government in Kabul cannot prevail with American boots on the ground – along with those of other NATO nations – how will they defeat the Taliban when we are gone.
We did Iran a favor in bringing down the ISIS califate that also threatened Iran’s interests in the region – and possibly Iran itself. ISIS still operates, but with far less potency. But that does not mean that Iran still does not see the United States as a mortal enemy.
The Iran deal was incredibly destructive to our interests. It merely postponed Iran gaining nuclear weaponry – which they do not need at this time – but gave Tehran time and resources to expand their campaign of anti-American, anti-west terrorism. That should have been part of the deal.
Iran demonstrated its willingness to up the game with the attack on the Saudi oil refinery. This was an indirect attack on America and the global economy. It may have well been designed to push America and the west closer to a recession – perhaps believing the #NeverTrump Resistance Movement’s political trash talk that the United States was already on the slippery slope of recession.
If Iran continues to ramp up its aggressive behavior, what can we do but to deploy the military? It may not take a full-scale war, but rather a firm and convincing surgical action like President Reagan took against Libyan-sponsored terrorism – the Lockerbie airline bombing and the attack on the Munich Olympics, as two notable examples. He actually bombed Muammar Kaddafi’s presidential palace. It worked. International terrorist events took a precipitous drop.
If a surgical strike against Iran does not do the job, then all bets are off. We just may have to go in with a full commitment to bring down the rogue Tehran government. We should avoid a war if we can, but we damn well should win it as quickly as possible if we must.
So, there ‘tis.