Dems will lose on abortion
The prevailing wisdom among the left is that the leak of the potential decision by the Supreme Court to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision hands the Democrats a major benefit for the midterm elections. They see it as a game changer – giving Democrats a chance of retaining the Senate and even holding on in the House.
Their strategy is based on the facts that show most Americans do not want Roe v. Wade overturned. They cite polling numbers as high as 70 percent against ending the 1973 decision. They further assume that such a Supreme Court decision will create a high level of motivation among that 70 percent – especially the women. As long as Democrat strategist base their plans on those numbers and those assumptions, they will lose big time.
Currently, the pro-abortion advocates have been going bonkers over the leaked draft decision authored by Justice Samuel Alito. They are all over the media and in the streets ripping the document apart word-by-word – attacking Alito on his scholarship, his knowledge of history, and his harsh language. Thanks to their friends in the press, the left has made the leaked draft one of the top three stories of the day.
No matter how much they churn the waters, they still are only dealing with a leaked draft. They are shadow boxing. If the final decision does not overturn Roe v. Wade – but only upholds the 15-week ban – the left will look like a bunch of Chicken Littles. And even if they do overturn Roe, I am betting that the language of the final decision will be different in basic arguments and tone.
But there are bigger issues than a difference in language. There are reasons why the Democrats will come up short if they think abortion is going to drive the vote in their favor. Abortion has almost never been a factor in any major election. Political professionals and strategists analyzing elections have shown it to have had no more than a two percent impact – and in most cases, no impact at all.
Of course, the pending decision can change that to some degree, but not as much as the pro-abortion advocates believe. That is because if they actually think they have the support of 70 percent of the voters, they are deluding themselves. The devil is in the details.
First of all, the 70 percent number may be – and probably is – wrong. The highest number I have seen was around 62 percent. And in recent polls, that number has been dropping. In the latest Pew Research Poll, the number favoring maintaining Roe v. Wade is 59 percent. Other polls, however, show different numbers.
According to Gallup, the nation is essentially evenly divided on the issue of abortion, with 49 percent favoring legalized abortion and 47 percent opposed – with 5 percent offering “no opinion.” (That comes up to 101 percent due to rounding.) Considering the margin of error, it is a wash. But what about that 5 percent who have “no opinion?” Since they are not picking sides, they are not likely to be activists in the pro-abortion movement. They are not likely to base their vote on that issue. By default, that puts them on the side of the pro-life community – giving the pro-life position a 52 percent majority of the public in terms of voter interest.
And finally, the abortion supporters seem to be assuming that the women of America will be up in arms over overturning Roe. The pro-abortion advocates and the media habitually ignore the very high percentage of women who are pro-life. Gallup puts women for abortion at 52 percent and women against at 43. Hardly the impression one gets from leftwing media analyses and narratives.
Gallup is not alone in producing real numbers that undermine abortion advocates’ strategic arguments. According to MSNBC’s numbers-cruncher Steve Kornacki, 65 percent of Americans OPPOSE abortion in the second trimester – and a whopping 81 percent OPPOSE in the third trimester. This would seem to make the restrictive laws in many states that are at the center of the Supreme Court decision in line with public sentiment. If the pro-abortion community is counting on that 70 percent support figure they toss about, they will be sorely disappointed.
For sure, those numbers can change or be refuted by other polls. But the fact remains that the pro-abortion lobby does NOT have the overwhelming support they claim – and that may explain why we see so many pro-life legislators and officeholders and so many laws limiting abortion. They have public support.
Numbers in the polls may seem inconsistent, but that is usually due to how the questions are framed. But one thing is clear, abortion-on-demand in all circumstances is NOT popular with the public. That means that all the restrictive state laws that have the left’s hair on fire seem to be where the majority of Americans are.
Once it is understood that even overturning Roe v. Wade does not end abortions in America, the public will not find the Court’s decision to be quite as Draconian as the left would have us believe. Perhaps the pro-abortion folks understand the weaknesses among the public – and that is why they are trying to pile on those unrelated issues.
The left is going into hyperspace with their creative fearmongering scenarios. The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, however, will have no meaning – nada – on other issues, such as gay marriage, interracial marriages, and contraception voting rights. They are not even remotely at risk. The tactic will not work because the public is too smart to buy such nonsense.
The weakness of the pro-abortion position was evident in the Senate vote on a bill that would have actually gone further than Roe v. Wade to allow virtually all abortion on demand. Though it was a foregone conclusion that the legislation would fail, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wanted every Senator to vote for the record – assuming that it would hurt the election prospects of those voting against the bill. Pro-abortion folks claimed the bill would pass if they could end the filibuster. In fact, the bill failed in a 51 to 49 vote. Schumer could not even deliver all the democrats. It was not killed by the filibuster but by a majority vote of the Senate. – a bipartisan vote.
To spread more fear based on disinformation, Democrat leaders also falsely claim that if Roe is overturned there will be no exceptions to the ban on abortions. Those states that have been LIMITING abortion generally allow exceptions for the life of the mother, rape, and incest – the exceptions most folks support. Yes, some legislators may have proposed complete bans, but after the legislation is worked through the system, those exceptions are generally included.
There could be a small number of state legislatures that would enact a total ban on the argument that they do not want abortions performed in their states. They are generally states where abortion is almost non-existent already – such as Missouri, with its one clinic in the entire state.
What the pro-abortion advocates fail to appreciate is that all the legislatures that are passing stricter limitations on abortion are composed of members elected by the people. If the left really had overwhelming support for abortion, there would not be so many governors and state legislators passing restrictive laws. Duh.
Yes, the pro-abortion forces are impassioned and loud. They can take to the streets by the hundreds and even the thousands. They have a class of politicians who will pound the rostrums in outrage over the possibility of overturning Roe v. Wade. And they have the support of the left-leaning news media to amplify their voices and spread their fearmongering propaganda. But they are not the political force they believe – or at least want the rest of us to believe. I doubt when the dust has settled on the 2022 midterm elections, we will not be looking at abortion as a determinant issue.
So, there ‘tis.