Biden’s polling is creating chaos for political analysts
Trying to give meaning to President Biden’s cratering polling number is driving the political strategists and pundits crazy. What inferences can be drawn from the polls? How can the prognosticators prognosticate?
The first thing to consider is the numbers themselves. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Biden has suffered a 14-point swing in favor of Trump. Biden’s previous 4-point lead over Trump has become a 10-point lead by Trump.
Biden is hemorrhaging support from blacks and Hispanics – two of the Democrats’ most loyal core voters. His flip-flop on Israel has cost Biden support from both Arabs and Jews. According to Rasmussen, Biden is losing with young voters, and independents going for Trump by a 53 to 30 – an astonishing 23-point margin.
None of that makes sense. And that is what is driving Democrats and the left-leaning media bonkers – leaving them creating even more ridiculous and outrageous end-of-America narratives against Trump and Republicans.
Democrats are claiming that a Trump reelection will literally be the end of the American democracy. He will become a dictator. Despite all the pumping up that fearmongering narrative gets in the media, polls put Biden and Trump within the margin of error on which one is the better defender of democracy. Biden has a mere 3-point edge. How is that even possible?
Biden is under water on most issues that voters care about – the economy, border security, crime. His only winning issue is abortion, with climate policy as a breakeven. And if Rasmussen is right, Biden is losing the women’s vote. Really?
Though Biden is only a couple years older than Trump, the President is getting clobbered on the age issue. Why the difference in perception?
The situation for Biden is particularly grim – or “dark” as Democrat advisor David Axelrod put it – in terms of the all-important battleground states. According to the recent Bloomberg poll, it is 46 to 42 in favor of Trump in Arizona … 49 to 43 in Georgia … 46 to 42 in Michigan … 47 to 44 in Nevada … 49 to 40 in North Carolina … 46 to 44 in Pennsylvania … and 45 to 41 in Wisconsin. If the election were today, Trump would carry all the swing states. How do you explain that?
Biden has the worst numbers at this time of any presidential candidate who ultimately wins. Does that mean he cannot win against Trump? How do you build a case for Biden?
On the other hand … a lot of the numbers are within the margin of error and it is 11 months until the election. These numbers may only be a moment-in-time. Politics is an impossible game to predict this far out. Anything can happen to dramatically change the election outcome. In 1992, President George H. W. Bush had an insurmountable lead in the months before the election – until he did not and lost. In 2008, Senator John McCain was looking good until the recession hit – and then he was not and lost. Hillary Clinton was heading into a coronation in 2016 – until she was deposed and lost.
Seventy percent of the American people would like to see someone else — anyone else – bearing the standards for the Republican and Democratic Parties. So, why are these guys viewed as pre-emptive candidates?
So, how do the folks with the crystal balls see the future when everything is so unprecedented? How do they explain the inexplicable? The job description of those of us in the political analysis and prognosis business requires us to analyze and prognosticate. It has become like asking a doctor to make a diagnosis when none of the symptoms make any sense.
Will Trump win the GOP nomination? Will he win the General Election? Will he go to jail? Will Biden turn around his numbers? Will he decide not to run? Will he pick a different Vice President candidate? Will Christie, DeSantis or Ramaswami get out of the race? Will the economy recover or go into recession? Will the “no names” folks put up candidates for President and Vice President? Will Joe Manchin run as an independent? Will Robert Kennedy, Jr. take votes away from Biden? Will there be a big turnout?
Based on years of experience – and a pretty good record for insightfulness – my answer to all these questions is a definitive …. MAYBE
So, there ‘tis.