Trump and Vance’s “America First”: Tougher on China, Softer on Russia
The 2024 Republican ticket, featuring Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance, is signaling a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing a pivot from Europe to Asia. This change, analysts suggest, underscores a firm stance against China while adopting a more flexible approach towards Russia.
A Hawkish Stance on China
Throughout the Republican National Convention, Trump and Vance showcased a unified, hardline approach towards China. This stance is consistent with the broader Republican Party’s view of China as a strategic adversary. Vance, in particular, has been vocal about this threat, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to pivot its focus from Europe to Asia. In a recent interview, Vance marked China as the biggest threat to the U.S., reinforcing his commitment to a tougher stance against Beijing.
Trump’s previous administration laid the groundwork for this posture by defining China as a strategic competitor, a view that the current Biden administration has also adopted. Trump’s speeches and the Republican platform both reflect a commitment to strengthening alliances, particularly in Asia, without specifically mentioning Russia or Ukraine.
A Divided Approach to Russia
In contrast to their aggressive stance on China, Trump and Vance exhibit a more nuanced approach towards Russia. Trump has been consistently skeptical about increased aid to Ukraine, a sentiment that aligns with his broader view that European NATO members should bear more responsibility for their defense. This perspective has caused a rift within the Republican Party, as some members continue to advocate for a stronger response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
During his speech at the convention, Trump claimed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would not have occurred under his leadership. However, his reluctance to fully commit to Ukraine’s defense highlights his preference for a more transactional foreign policy, focusing on direct U.S. interests.
Analysts’ Perspectives
Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that Trump’s selection of Vance represents a significant shift in the Republican Party’s foreign policy. This shift moves away from the neoconservative position that advocates for widespread U.S. military engagement. Instead, it embraces an “America First” and “Asia First” approach, prioritizing the strategic challenge posed by China over the conflict in Europe.
Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense, and other “Asia First” proponents within the party are likely to influence Trump’s foreign policy decisions. They advocate for redirecting U.S. military resources from Europe to Asia, a move that aligns with Trump and Vance’s priorities.
Vance’s Influence and Economic Nationalism
Vance’s influence in the potential new administration would likely extend beyond just military strategy. He supports reducing American dependence on Chinese manufacturing, protecting critical supply chains, and taking strong actions against Chinese intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices. His legislative efforts, such as sponsoring a bill to block Chinese access to U.S. capital markets, further underscore his commitment to challenging China’s influence.
Economically, both Trump and Vance advocate for imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, a continuation of the trade war initiated during Trump’s first term. Vance’s “economically nationalist” stance aligns with Trump’s promises to protect American industries through aggressive trade policies.
Balancing Acts and Future Implications
While Trump and Vance’s policies towards China and Russia differ, they both aim to realign U.S. foreign policy to better serve national interests. This approach might lead to increased tensions with China, while potentially creating room for negotiations with Russia. Analysts suggest that Trump’s transactional nature might lead to temporary tough actions against China, with the ultimate goal of bringing Beijing to the negotiating table.
The upcoming election will be crucial in determining the future of U.S. foreign policy. With Trump and Vance at the helm, America’s stance on global issues, especially concerning China and Russia, is poised for significant changes. As the political landscape evolves, the world will be watching how these shifts impact international relations and global stability.
This piece does not read like Trump speaks in his rally preaching, his convention sales pitch bragging, and his bombastic debate meanderings. Mr. Oliver’s rendition of the little known about a Trump/Vance administration substantially tones down the rhetoric.
Danial almost contains the negative impact on foreign policy that Trump’s return to BFF status non diplomacy and no real teeth tariffs. His spiel had China paying the tariffs on goods imported from China. How it actually happened is the tariffs caused an increase in price for the consumer. Ultimately firing up inflation in our economy. Prices rising on a select group of imports from China initiates a price increase on more products generally. Product price increases drive the labor force to demand higher pay. Then, labor we know is a major factor included in the cost of goods. When labor cost increase every other input determining a products price has a cost increase.
Tariffs levied must be paid by some entity along the distribution channel. The end user, us the consumer end up footing the bill. Our one recourse comes down to choice, when we, possibly, have other options.
Trump cheers about his first term’s successes. What exactly are his accomplishments. Promises, promises, promises health insurance, build the wall on Mexico’s dime, control Putin, stop China in the arms race, keep North Korea out of the long range missal business, which of these promises were kept.Promised tax relief for a majority of the ordinary tax payers never happened. But the top 5%, the most wealthy, are the only beneficiaries of Trump’s single bill enacted into law as President.
All things considered, is Trump more able than he was 8 years ago? At 78 years old is he fit in mind and body to successfully manage our nation’s disunity issues, a divided and mouthy Congress , a belligerent Senate, and the greater problems he repeatedly denies existing.
He says, “I know nothing” when asked to comment on The 2025 Project. His lack of response on this large scale shuffling plan has ramifications for America and all contains us. Trump denying knowledge of this emerging potential monster in our midst is the work of Trump’s former cabinet members. They joined into a radical conservative think-tank purposed to be Trump’s brain trust in his future term as President. As if Trump/Vance in office is not troubling on their own, this wild eyed consortium which if implemented would introduce a Program to resend and replace major sections of law from the U.S. Constitution.
Anyone who is interested in keeping America as Great as she has a history in proving greatness and care about our Country’s standing in the world’s nations, this is the moment that will test each o. Is it loyalty to a political party or loyalty to our country with her 250 years long history.
Political parties through this county’s history have come upon the scene and have failed people’s expectations, then voted out of existence. Yet, our nation survived, growing in greatness.
MAGA is a ruse. It’s a lie that morphed into an ugly , cynically deceptive conspiracy theory that was false in conception and wrong in essence. History tells no lies. America is a country with profound greatness which should not be denied. Much has been made of this theory that America somehow lost greatness and nobody knew until Trump came proclaiming the lie that set up the hugest con. As Trump often repeats the words “the most in this country’s history”. In the case of MAGA and the slogan becoming the most in American history. He may be tell the the truth.
However, the truth by definition is a fact, or a set of facts. MAGA is founded on a set of lies. This, then, defines an active con perpetuated for personal benefit. Who stands to benefit the most from the slogan’s continued existence and pervasive presence in our conversations. Who, but Trump himself has cashed in on this con of his.
This all being said, Daniel Oliver in this piece has laid out Trump’s basic policy in dispassionate words and calm phrasing. Trumps speaking mannerisms being removed and his broken sentence style monologue translated by Oliver loses Trump’s characterizations and gravitas.
However, Trump’s words in proper English sentence structure come to the same conclusion. He is banking on his tactics are going to fool enough voters on Election Day for a win. He has always been a gambling man. This his biggest con since 2016 he believes will pan out financially, legally, and historically.
America must not further reinforce Trump in his psychosis that pushes false narratives and potential disastrous action. Actions that would culminate in a national horrific disaster
There are some aspects of tariffs that need to be spoken. Yes you are correct, it will be we the people that will pay the tariff. But lets review what a tariff is for”:
Tariffs are for the purpose of economically equating domestically produced In the beginning and for a while, the domestic people pay the tariff, and the foreign people are not impacted. And this can continue for a while! In the case of Trump’s recently lost tariff war, it lasted at least two years where we payed higher prices. And in some cases such as BMW being produced down in SC, it impacted their cost of steel auto frames. The upside was it did create some steel jobs. The down side is that less BMWs were sold and thus all of those suppliers to BMW lost. Overall, the US consumer lost. But the story does not end there. China lost too! After some time, Chinese workers started being unemployed and that impacted their real estate market because those unemployed Chinese workers could not afford the mortgages on their new apartment homes. So really, both sides lost. Also, when a country announces tariffs on a foreign country, usually the foreign country does the same in retribution to the tariffs imposed on their products. And it can be a lengthly and very ugly long process for both countries to recover from.
Nest, check the history on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Trump’s idea is not new. It was tried almost 100 years ago and failed miserably. It was blamed for excess inflation as well as holding back our recovery from the Great Depression.
With regard to this Project 2025 by the Heritage Foundation, it is the scizzors that Trump intends on using to roll back women and minority rights, get rid of no fault divorce, get rid of women protections from abuse, get rid of the Education Dept which will get rid of student college loans as well as the food programs for students of poverty in all of our public schools across the nation. This plan will put us back to the 1930’s when women were just gaining the right to vote, Black Americans were highly discriminated against, minorities such as Hispanic and Chinese were not welcome, no affirmative action at all, and it will invalidate the whole rule of law which is the bedrock of our great democracy and institutions. Project 2025 is the flagship of the White Christian Nationalist Facist movement – make no mistake about that!
MAGA is definitely a ruse. Most of them do not investigate Trump’s false claims. Trump’s lies are their cocaine, they crave it. It’s sort of like what Satan said to God when he said, “I would rather rule in hell than serve in Heaven.” MAGA would rather rule over the carcas of a once Democracy that actually participate and make the Democratic Republic they have better! Benjamin Franklin warned us that it will be hard to keep our Republic. He saw guys like Trump using the institution against itself (like what Trump does with endless appeals and motions to stave off his legal cases yet to be tried in a court of law. Trump will staff his cabinet with all of his favorite criminals from the past and a database of willing sycophants located at Heritage Foundation!
Horist, Sheridan, and Oliver are all for Trump and have no problem promoting Trumps lies and misinformation.
Well guys, good stuff, but my entry is that famous answer to all questions, especially this one: IT DEPENDS. It depends on the type and timing for the tariffs and what products it affects.
At the highest level, if you are a free market capitalist like Republicans used to be and now pretend, then any time government puts its finger on the scale, it’s a bad thing. Tariffs are like blockades; at some point if your finger tips the scale too far, they will just bootleg the product or run the tariff or blockade just like prohibition or the drug war. Meanwhile, you tariff them, they tariff you, friends join you, enemies join each other. It’s a real ding to a free market economy that would upset Adam Smith but not necessarily blow him away. Smith objected to tariffs but could see the necessity for national security and to force others into free trade when they sell to you but raise barriers to importation. I like the Smith view. Enough econ 101……
That said, there are times for tariffs, punitive for something, to correct unfair practices, pricing, or free trade. But should be sparingly, targeted, and make a point. Trumps did nothing for years so what was the point beyond politics? It’s like cuffing a dog for correction. A quick light tap sends a message, beating it to death usually just makes behavior worse.
That said, we really don’t know Trump’s plan until he does it. You can’t believe anything he says so why examine until he actually does something.
That that said: chances are he will not punish China by putting a tariff on all trade. He does not have the balls for that and there’s no profit in that for him personally. Instead, he will pick winners and losers like he did last time. And therein lies the rub. Who is really profiting from that and Trump profits greatly from China. For tens of millions. I guarantee he will pick winners and losers and not do a general tariff. Pussy.
While your conclusions are correct in the aggregate, they will be different for different product categories. Again, winners and losers. Generally, prices go up, demand goes down. But for optional products, you can just do without or get alternatives. For products you cannot live without, you will pay the extra fare and buy less of something you can do without and that second product will face unfair disadvantage caused by Trump’s picks. Thus, winners and losers.
And in aggregate you will pay a tax. The current plan tax is estimated to lower GDP by .8% by the Tax Foundation. Small number except Trump never got above 2.4% I think so it’s a killer. Tax is hundreds of millions per year of Trump mandated cost to consumers from Mr. lower taxes.
Bottom line: I like Smith’s view. Unfortunately, so far, Trump has been impotent when it comes to legislation or diplomacy so tariffs are a tool he can pull off himself, like an Executive Order, so he will use them across the globe as his emotions dictate. Broad punitive tariffs are not free market capitalism so, if needed, you better plan to return to free ASAP. Trump has no plan, no timeline, he just wings it, lies, and wings it again. He should leave this tool in his toolbox until he learns how to use it.
I agree Frank. I think Trump heard someone float an idea so he copied it without really knowing much about it. But I would not put it past him to have learned a thing or two from the trade war with China that he lost and try it again!
More can be said regarding Trump’s short comings and more will be revealed before decision day, November of this year.
Even so, a bigger mountain of lies, disgusting behavior, and proven illegalities will continue and add to the unprecedented number of illegal acts already discovered. The point is, if just one of the many illegalities happened with any of our nation’s previous candidates for POTUS. That person would have been disqualified, indicted, tried, found guilty by a jury, and sentenced appropriately.
Why hasn’t Trump made subject to our nation’s laws and jurisprudence? He is fist pumping and laughing at judges, special investigators, and the American justice system including the DOJ down to the cop on his beat. None of us is immune from justice for breaking the law, except DJ Trump. He laughingly mocks the system that brought him to his present privileged high position. And, the right wing do not and will see his ruses, lies, and vile mistreatment he made women endure.
The future of our country has been put into jeopardy after Trump’s first four years brought his personal chaos into the nations executive mansion. The White House is not owned by the president in residence. The building and grounds belong to the NPS and at the will of the people the duly elected president receives the property on loan for the duration of his/her term.
Seemingly, the Republican right willingly sacrifices hard won individual rights for Trump’s promises that amount to not so much as a small portion of portage.
The question that begs an answer is, what perverse deed accredited to Trump will convince the right that even for them, enough is enough, lock him up?
AC, there are some people on the right who are not MAGA, and they are voting Dem this time because of Trump. They were turned off by 34 convictions and the way the GOP tried to run gag order interference for him in the Manhattan trial.
For the rest of that right which is mostly MAGA, we must understand that MAGA is a convergence of several things like 1) White supremacist feelings; 2) Women who like being under the thumb of men; 3) Suburban women that never had to make the hard decision to have an abortion; 4) White people who feel they are being excluded and do not want to give ground so other races can thrive, and they feel those races are inferior which comes out when they say things like “black jobs”; 5) White Christian National Fascist that feel the only hope for the White race to stay up top is to change our country from a democracy to an autocracy with White men being the power brokers.
The common thread in almost all of this is religion, extreme and fundamental perverted interpretations of Christian doctrine. So to answer your question, to convince the MAGA types to lock Trump up probably won’t happen but if it does, it most likely would be over heretical and/or blasphemous statements and claims. They already believe God sent Trump to save their miserable lives, but comments placing himself above God or blaspheming comments might do it. Anything less, it will roll of their backs.