Trump attack on Iran was No surprise.
Despite all the criticism …. all the speculation … all the faint of heart fearmongering … all the back and forth messaging … all the knee-jerk anti-Trump spin … Trump’s decision to send in the bombers was as easy to predict as the rising of the morning sun.
In a previous commentary, I wrote that all the hints were in plain sight. There was the movement of major military assets to the region. Trump’s advice to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to “keep going”. At one point, Trump told reporters that he had “no interest in negotiations” after his 60-day deadline passed. Trump had repeatedly told Iran that if they refused to come to the negotiating table, it would result in terrible consequences.
There was a lot of reporting on the on again/off again cooperation between Trump and Netanyahu. I personally believe it was to keep Iran and the American isolationists at bey (or “at bay”, if you prefer) – keeping them on hold, waiting for a final decision. That view was substantiated when Trump said in is late Saturday evening address to the nation, that he and Netanyahu have been working hand-in-hand throughout the recent decision making process. I also believe that the decision to attack was not a last second decision as Trump once suggested.
Despite all the claims by Trump, I continue to doubt that the only goal is to eliminate Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Rather, I believe that those statements were more window dressing designed to give those opposing regime change a false hope.
As I have said in previous commentaries, I believe regime change has been the unstated goal – and still is. Trump used his social media in the past to tell Iran to surrender. He warned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that we know where he is – and that we can take him out any time we choose. That is regime change language.
Trump’s address to the nation is one of the best speeches of his career. It was brief and to the point. His demeanor as very presidential. It was positive in every way. Trump called the mission a spectacular success – a rare understatement for Trump. In view of the fact that there was no loss of life or equipment, that is a reasonable assessment. In the coming days, we will learn more on the extent of the destruction.
We will also learn if Iran will retaliate quickly, over time, or not at all. Will they now agree to negotiation? Although I think it is too late for any resolution short of regime change. In addition, Iran has already said the basic conditions laid out by Trump are unacceptable.
Israel will continue to attack. The American action was not designed to produce a ceasefire – and again, Trump said he was not interested in a ceasefire. It was peace or continued attacks by Israel, which the United States will continue to support with munitions, money and intelligence – and possible intervention.
The raid was no surprise –and neither was the petty and desperate knee-jerk reaction of the never-Trump crowd. But more about that in a future commentary.
So, there ‘tis.
We woke up to the aftermath of bombs falling and ceasefires announced as five more dead in latest Iranian missile strike in Israel. Trump had laid down a red line over more missiles, he did nothing but scream, and supposedly the ceasefire is on again. Welcome to war in the Middle East. Then they said ceasefire 2 after Trump said they were stupid. Oye. I hope Trump gets peace after his flawless sneak attack against Iran; it’s a bold gamble that I pray pans out. It appears the bombing was not as destructive as thought too.
The author mostly conjectures as to what happened, what the forward plans and goals are, but frankly, he does not have a fucking clue. Few do. And therein lies the rub. We don’t know where we are going, what we are doing, and no one is being transparent about what has been done. The author has to peer inside Trump’s mind one more time, the very thing he harshly accuses others of doing to him, based on his own words. The only way he knows what’s going on is to guess.
Fact is, we really don’t know how close Iran was to the bomb or if they were doing anything beyond enriching uranium. And that’s the problem: Trump is the least transparent President in generations. We don’t know the extent of our damages, whether Iran still has the enriched uranium, etc. We don’t really know that 80% of Iran wants regime change; it’s a closed country and polling is difficult. Can I say: Gulf of Tonkin, babies in incubators Iran 1 or WMD’s for Iran 2 —- been lied to a lot to start wars. He waxes poetic about the stealth, the deception, the trickery, when, in truth, we attacked a country without air defense immediately after we said “two weeks for a decision,” apparently, they did not detect us coming. Really not sure if the Iranians did launch planes there would be a difference given our war plane’s superiority. And so we are at war, not quite sure why, the goal is no more nukes and regime change.
We laid down our red line, they crossed it, TACO, and we have a cease fire, cease fire broken, TACO, and cease fire again. Hopefully the second cease fire holds.
If this is your bestest dealmaking, give me a break. If we wake up tomorrow at peace or at war, who knows. It’s chaos all over again. Makes for great TV.
“Remarkably, Iran’s air defense systems failed to detect or engage the incoming aircraft.” This is neither remarkable or true. The Israeli’s took out most of Iran’s radar last June. The Israeli’s took out the S-300 air defense in October of last year, thought it a few months to repair, and both Isreal and the US hit it again before this pre-emptive attack by the US as well as hitting the radar systems again. It was not that remarkable that they did not see us coming or have anything to fire at us.
“Operation Midnight Hammer was the result of weeks of intense planning, involving nearly every branch of the U.S. military. It mobilized hundreds of domestic and international strategists and coordinators—and thousands of service members in execution roles.” I am sure it was. And I am sure the “plan” existed in Biden’s time too and was adapted to the current situation.
“Astonishingly, this complex, multi-week operation was kept entirely under wraps. No leaks.” The author’s conjecture. The NYT reports on the fact that the attack was based on deception from the beginning as Trump announced his two-week decision period and gave the attack order 30 hours later. “Interviews with administration officials, Trump allies and advisers, Pentagon officials and others familiar with the events show how, during this period, different factions of Mr. Trump’s allies jockeyed to win over a president who was listing in all directions over whether to choose war, diplomacy or some combination.”
“Everyone should evacuate Tehran!” he telegraphed on Monday before the bombing. The following day, he posted that he had not left a meeting of the Group of 7 in Canada to broker a Middle East cease-fire but for something MUCH BIGGER. His own Generals were scarred he would spill the beans.
OK — enough. In sum, Trump tore up the JCPOA, Iran sponsor’s state terrorism, Israel attacks Iran, we say two weeks for a decision to join in, and then we sneak attack a few days later. The Iranian skies have been cleared by the Israeli’s, we pile on, and then drop some bunker bombs. We announce their agreement to cease fire, and now Isreal says Iran still firing missiles.
It was a bold move by Trump, coulda done without the subterfuge, but have we changed the game, are we in any different position than before the bombs dropped? Iran did not return the sneak attack, but did attack with an announced feckless firing of missiles. They did land some in Israel for effect. We took that as a positive sign they don’t want to escalate the war with us and Trump used it to stand down from his previous red line, another lie I guess, and a good one this time. We hope it forces them to the table and they decide to stop the nuclear arms program, if one existed beyond plutonium enrichment. And now we get the results laced with the fact that Trump lies to us, to the world.
What don’t we know. Did the U.S. strikes destroy the targets? Our officials say that U.S. bombs and missiles did “severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Our officials used to claim two bunker bombs would do it, they dropped a dozen. They may not know for weeks. However, experts are already signing in to say “damage was not as severe as expected.”
Does Iran have another enrichment facility? They said they do.
Where is Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium? Contrary to Trump, our officials said they don’t know. There were so many warnings, so many Israeli bombs, it could be moved in a small caravan of cars.
Will Trump’s move force capitulation or resumption? Nothing really stopping them from trying. After all, the nuclear strategy worked for Russia and North Korea — Trump respects their leaders. Worked for China too, the only country to say bugger off to Trump’s TWWI — Trade World War.
We had some inspectors on the ground; they are gone and banished now.
Basically, nothing has changed except a few bombs dropped on Iran. Again, I wish the best of luck for Trump’s bold move at the perfect time of Iran’s weakness. Trump is part of the reason we are in this situation when he tore up the JCPOA without an alternative. Along the way, we lied to cover our sneak attack, we jumped up and down patting ourselves on the back immediately after in a braggadocio “mission accomplished” shameful display that must have had the Generals sighing at these fake warriors, and we put a red line in the sand that we immediately rubbed out as they responded with an announced attack in retaliation to our sneak attack. Sorry folks, but not exactly the reputation I would be looking to build as the strongest nation militarily, economically, in the world.
And therein lies the rub and the world knows it: Trump alone does not have the support to pull of more war with Iran, or anywhere in the middle east save Israel alone. Nothing has changed, unless the Iranians see a positive path to change OR the Iranians stand up and dump the regime. Not sure that outcome is better either; we just don’t know.
A former aid for heels up Harris said that she would not have the courage to bomb the nuclear sites. And retard joe would not know how to spell Iran. We are much better off with Trump in the White House
Basing Trump’s success on whack estimates of Harris and Biden seems to say that Trump’s success cannot stand alone.
He claimed he’s the guy where wars don’t start. Wrong.
You claim Biden can’t spell Iran. True. He failed. But Trump can’t spell Ukraine, GAZA, he has not met his goals yet after promising. And now he claims “mission accomplished “ in Iran. He said that for Ukraine and GAZA too.
The Generals must be freaking out at his messaging.
“Scream loudly, sneak attacks, lies, no transparency, when you carry the biggest stick known to mankind.
The world does not trust us anymore.
I wish him the best luck in this bold gamble breaking the containment strategy with a preemptive strike on behalf and, if Horist can be believed, on bequest of Israel.
I hope you are right hb, but unintentional outcomes often have teeth.
Let chaos rule! Makes for great TV.