The election is over …  but who won?

Over?  Yes … essentially over.

It is now less than 30 days to Election (Counting) Day – as I call it. Even though the polls are not rendering up a clear winner, the election is essentially over.  There is no meaningful number of undecided voters. 

That has always been the case in every election, but even more so today.  Millions of folks have already voted.  By November 5^th, it is estimated that more than half of those who intend to vote will have voted.  The winning name is already in the sealed envelope just waiting to be opened in November.  The only thing that can influence the outcome is the get-out-the-vote efforts.  What has not ended is the polling and the analysis of polls to try to divine who the winner is.  It  is a little like the Academy Awards with all the  pre-shop  speciation even though the winners are already determined

As an election analyst, I write about polling numbers quite regularly.  Before getting into what I see in my own crystal ball in terms of the  2024 race, it may be useful for me to explain how I arrive at my interpretations and predictions.  If your only medical diagnostic too; is a thermometer, you make all judgments by body temperature. That is a bit like polls in an election.  They do not tell us everything, but it is all we have with any empirical value at all.

That leaves the political analyst with four problems.  First is the sheer number of polls using different models and different questions.  Second is the relative accuracy of the various polls.  Third is the interpretation of the polls by the various stakeholders.  (The latter is a particularly vexing problem since partisan stakeholders – politicians and the news media — will use selective information to “spin” the data to a desired meaning.)

Finally, there is the issue of who is polled.  Is it a poll of the general public … registered voters … or likely voters? Their utility in assessing an election rises in that order.  “Likely voter” is the only survey professional pundits take seriously.

Partisans always spin the data to make their candidate look like a winner.  In fact, campaigns often conduct tandem internal polls – a public one with questions crafted to put their candidate in the best light, and the so-called internal polls that give a more accurate picture upon which to base strategic planning.  Smart pundits ignore all polls produced by campaigns.

When an election is close, all those problems get magnified.  On any given day, we will see headlines indicating that President Trump is gaining, and – on the same day – polls that show Vice President Harris gaining.  That is exactly the situation we are in today — which makes professional, experienced and objective analyses all the more important to minimize the “spin.”

Finally, polls are only useful within days of when the public is surveyed — not the date released to the public.  By then they are outdated.  The longer the period between the polling day and the release date, the less reliable is the information.

Of the tens of thousands of polls taken in an election year, there are no more than a dozen that are considered sufficiently reliable to be used to make judgments – and then only for that moment in time.

With all that in mind, let us take a look at the current polling numbers.

The first thing to note is that virtually all the polls – no matter who is ahead – are in the margin of error.  That literally means we have no idea who is really ahead – nationally or in the all-important battleground states.  But there are some trend lines that can give us at least a hint of a reality.

Prior to President Biden’s withdrawal, the trend lines and the actual number were extremely foreboding for the incumbent President.  Not only were the numbers trending against him, but they were outside the margin of error. By every assessment Biden was going to be crushed by Trump – and down ballot Democrats were poised to lose the House, the Senate and local offices.  So much for Biden’s bravado about being the only person who could beat Trump.

Without the debilities and baggage of Biden, Harris was able to create a new more favorable trend line and she essential reached a parity with Trump.  That was the last significant shift in trend lines.  Harris failed to get the anticipated “bumps” in the polls from picking a vice presidential candidate … from the Democrat convention … and from the debate.  Since then, it has been a teeter-totter situation with Trump and Harris going up and down within the margin of error.

At this moment in time, Harris appears to be holding a slight lead in the national popular vote – 51 to 49 percent.  But … we do not elect presidents by popular vote.  Being ahead in the popular vote may make a candidate feel good, but it tells us nothing about who the winning candidate will be.  We have to look at all those battleground states to see who has the best shot at the required 270 elector votes.

And even there, it is impossible to divine a potential winner.  Trump and Harris bob up and down in various battleground states on a daily basis.  Some days it appears that Harris has the edge in reaching the 270 elector voters.  Other days it is Trump.

There is to be seen a micro-trend in Trump’s favor.  While still within the margin of error, Trump’s numbers are moving up by fractions of points while Harris’ numbers are moving down.

With all the head-to-head polling in the margin of error, we have to look at other polling information to see who might be trending toward a win.

One of the more significant polling questions is, “Is the country heading in the right or wrong direction?”  A little more than one-third of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction.  That is a body blow to the party in power.

CNN’s numbers guru Harry Enten noted that when the “right direction” number is that low (37 percent today), the party in power loses … virtually all the time.  That does not bode well for the Harris/Walz ticket or Democrat prospects of taking control of the House and retaining control of the Senate.

Another trend that favors Trump is that he is more trusted to handle the issues considered to be most important by the voters.  Their top issues are the economy (inflation), immigration and crime – and Trump owns them, and has throughout the campaign.  Democrats have the advantage with abortion and defense of democracy – the latter only by a smidgeon.  Voters rarely put the abortion issue in the top ten of their concerns.  A Democrat victory depends almost exclusively on having voters put aside all the critical issues and simply fear or hate Trump personally.

We also have to look to the past for insight into the future.  In both 2016 and 2020, Trump did far better in the actual vote count than he was doing in the polling at this time in those years. If that holds true, Trump wins handily.

There are reasons Trump tends to perform better than the polls.  Many voters do not want to admit to family, friends and pollsters that they are voting for Trump. That hidden vote has historically included Blacks and Hispanics … to a lesser degree the so-called “suburban moms” …  and this year, it may include Jews who are unhappy with Democrats’ stand on Israel vis a vis the war in the Middle East. 

A Harris win depends on two things – having convinced enough voters to fear Trump personally over and above all else — and to outpace the GOP in the now all-important get-out-the-vote effort.  How voters will vote is settled.  It is now a matter of who comes out to actually vote – and who does not.

Taking all things into consideration, I would not bet the ranch on Trump winning, but I would bet a beer.

So, there ‘tis.