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The conviction has not hurt Trump

The conviction has not hurt Trump

We are now seeing the closing wake of President Trump’s conviction in the hush money case, and better able to see its impact – or more accurately, the lack thereof.

President Biden, Democrat leaders and operatives, and the left leaning media had been predicting that a conviction would finally be the event to pull the support out from under Trump.  It was the same narrative they used in advance of the announcements of the criminal investigation … and again in advance of any indictment … and again of any trials before Election Day — and again when he lost the E. Jean Carroll case.

To say Biden & Co. were disappointed that none of those events cut into Trump’s polling numbers is a gross understatement.  They were shocked, dismayed, perplexed and any other similar word a Thesaurus would contribute.  No matter how many times their hope-based predictions failed to come to fruition, they proceed to make the same predictions of some future event – the debate being the next opportunity

A conviction will cause the collapse of Trump’s support, they opined. But it never happened.  And no matter how many times Democrats were told that the unprecedented demonizing of Trump was supercharging his campaign, they continued to follow their misguided strategy. 

Prior to Trump’s recent conviction, Democrat politicians, pundits and press were predicting that THIS TIME would be different.  THIS TIME voters will abandon Trump in droves and the big donors will be putting away their wallets – and small donations would dry up. People will not put a convicted felon in the Oval Office, they declared with a sense of certainty.   

In making their latest predictions, Biden & Co. cited polls indicating that 10 percent – or more – of Trump voters would be less likely to cast a ballot for Trump if he were convicted.

So, what happened THIS TIME?

Whether justified or not, politicians and pundits look at fundraising as an existential issue.  In analyzing a campaign, money raised and on hand are noteworthy statistics.

Weeell … Trump’s donations did not wither away after the conviction.  They soared.  Trump raised a record $171 million since the conviction – far outpacing Biden’s $50 million dollars in the same period. In the past two months, Trump has raised more than Biden for the first time.  Also, for the first time, Trump has more money on hand than Biden. In a short time, Trump has whipped out Biden’s money advantage.  That does not sound like a candidate who is losing ground.

So, what about the polls?

In the most recent national polls, Biden and Trump are exchanging the top polling spot from day to day within the margins of error.  In a recent FOX News poll, Biden squeaked past Trump 50 percent to 48 percent.  Past FOX polls had Trump ahead.  A PBS poll showed the national race as dead even at 49 percent each.  But that is an improvement for Trump.  The PBS polls over the past year had shown Biden ahead every time – and occasionally by as much as 4 points.  The fact that the latest post-conviction poll shows them even is a gain for Trump.

More importantly, Trump continues to lead in virtually all the battleground states by margins of 2 to 5 points. That gives Trump all the electoral votes he needs to win the election.  If the election were being held today, Trump would win.  So sayeth pundits on both sides.

Trump’s fundraising clearly improved following the conviction   I would say that his polling numbers improved a smidgeon.  Not enough to make the improvement notable or meaningful, however.  The bad news for Biden is that Trump’s conviction did not result in any bad news for Trump, who did not suffer any apparent loss in support from the conviction. 

And what is that sound you hear?  That is the Biden chorus predicting that THIS TIME the upcoming debate will be the game changer – you know, just like the State of the Union speech in January.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

7 Comments

  1. Darren

    The people in power pulling Biden’s Strings are FOOLS!
    They under estimate the intelligence of the American people at every turn.
    I know most people are Sheeple, but if you are still a Biden supporter at this point , YOU are the SHEEPLE.
    They have also under estimated the people through out the world.
    Only so called smart people can possible be this unintelligent!
    From J6th to the sham conviction, only the stupid will contrive with the Democratic machine!

    Reply
  2. Andrew Gutterman

    The voters who will decide the who becomes President next January detest both Trump and Biden, so any poll numbers anyone is looking at today are pure fantasy, they have no meaning. Nobody knows for certain how these voters will vote in November, but that won’t stop newspeople from agonizing over them, endlessly.

    It all depends on how Trump and Biden come across late October. And what may or may not happen before then.

    Tough decision if you detest both candidates.

    Reply
  3. tom

    This article gets a Stop The Spin (STS) rating of STS-3. Here is why:

    1) It was a business records fraud and election interference case, not a hush money case. Call it what it really is!

    2) Those cases DID cut into Trump’s poll numbers (just not dramatically) as they should have because he is a criminal. However, among the most notable findings in the latest Politico poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a race with thin margins, Independents will be critical. And he is losing them!

    3) Well over 50% of Americans still believe that a convicted felon should not occupy the oval office.

    4) Trump tried to win over oil and gas executives and lost. Now Trump is threatening Corporate CEO’s and over 100 have divorced from Trump according to Yahoo Finance and other sources. Wall street execs are the ones filling Trump’s coffers at this point because he is promising them cash. Most of Trumps big haul from his conviction is from mega donors like Tim Mellon, making it look like lots of little guys are donating – and that is your spin! Trump is getting desperate.

    5) Trump is basically putting American policy up for the highest bidder and donor – thsee people do not have the best interests of the little guy in mind, nor does Trump!

    6) The truth is that the big donors are more concerned about what Dems will do to capitalism in the USA than they are about what GOP’s will do to Democracy in the USA. If the GOP wins, capitalism wins, and this trickle down Reagonesque way of rewarding the little guy will not help the little guy much. If the Dems win, the institution wins and most likely the little guy will maybe get a better deal. Its a coin toss. But Trump will attempt to eliminate several institutions like the Dept. of Education, the ACA, etc. that the little guys need – and this will cause harm. Trump will attempt more tax cuts for the rich and corporations and build national debt which hurts the little guy more than the rich guy.

    7) A few mega donors opening their wallets more does not equate to winning a general election but does give the illusion that Trump is more popular than he really is. His base size has not increased but for a mere few wallstreeters who run hedge funds. But right now, he is losing at least 11% more independents than he did before the business fraud and election interference trial.

    8) FOX skews its polls by whom they select to poll. National poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Biden leading Trump by 0.3 points in the national election, as of Friday morning. I think you will see Independents move away from Trump as Trump announces more crazy policies, and after the first debate if Biden does well – that is if Trump actually shows up!

    9) FOX should have done a poll on the “double-haters. They would have seen that 90% of double-haters break for Biden because of Trump’s crazy policies. The majority of Independents and Double-haters think Trump should end his 2024 campaign. See *https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-independents-double-haters-trump-end-2024-campaign/story?id=110778206*

    So there ’tis, now you have the full facts.

    Reply
    • frank stetson

      Tom, while I don’t understand your numerical rating beyond directional, as in you could use low, med, high; I enjoy the text with this one being spot on, IMO.

      I really resonate to “ I think you will see Independents move away from Trump as Trump announces more crazy policies, and after the first debate if Biden does well – that is if Trump actually shows up” and believe that stance is wider than just independents. The more folks listen, the crazier he sounds.

      Given these gents, I say the debates are a toss up but if no major occurrences, Biden wins.

      On the “are you better off” scenario, and because you showed an interest, my financials hit a high water mark 1.22, one year into Biden. Not that Trump did not help, not that this was partly a Trump roll, and most certainly, my finances fell under Biden. But pretty sure as of 7.24, I will barely nudge by the high water mark as I announced to you around April. It’s a huge comeback that took longer than most declines I have suffered. But not the longest.

      As I said, I am mostly fixed assets now, mostly brokered CDs. I mean anything that moves: I even have fractionals. Any equities are either tax dodge muni’s or value stocks that are suffering, but huge dividends. Frankly, inflation has caused my strategy shift, and inflation has given me these great rates. Thank goodness most of the interest is sheltered also. Weirdly, my inflation fighter equities for commodities, restaurants, and some strange blends were meh. I sold the blends for 5% profit ASAP since they bored me.

      Unfortunately, under the reign of Trump, the IRA 10-year rule came into effect which really screws my family. I mean I have believed the promise for 40 years that they would just have to withdrawal RMDs the way I have, but now they need to drain the whole thing in ten years costing my family more in taxes and complexity of said taxes than the bargain I signed up for. Fucking Trumpian bait and switch. Dumb fuck will probably privatize Social Security next term as Horist stupidly desires too. But, on the IRAs, it just does not seem fair not to grandfather us folks who believed in the dream and scrimped and saved for it. And Mr. Trump shattered it.

      Oh well, Mom always said if a dollar to the profit side, it’s a good thing. And I can warn kids about the tax burden before I can warn no more and it’s their problem…..a good problem to solve. But financially, it would appear Trump is targeting me and my kind.

      Bottom line: I am freaking fucking better off under Biden than Trump who stole from me in many ways by breaking financial promises of the past, gigging me for owning my home, and many other financial jabs. Sounds like how he does business too.

      Reply
      • Tom

        Yeah I am in a the same boat, maybe just a different deck. My value stocks have taken a hit but I do not worry. Once the luster on Nividia and other tech AI stocks has subsided, the value stocks will go up some. Most of them I get dividends that are higher than my Frank – Dobbs settlement fund.

        I did not know about that Trump IRA ten year rule!!! I will check that out! Sounds like beneficiaries have to drain the IRA in 10 years. That really sucks. But you could take some of the money out now, gift it, and set up a 529J for the grandkids? I am not sure how I am going to handle the grandkids yet.

        I agree with your sentiment about saving our whole lives!!!

        An interesting comment I heard yesterday was that the rich folks and corporations are more concerned with what Dems will do to capitalism in the USA than they are worried about what GOP’s will do to democracy. How sad is that. I remember the days when both seemed to peacefully co-exist!

        Oh Trump will surely go after trimming SS at a minimum, and if he announces Thursday that he is going to privatize, that is a loser in my book. We had that debate years ago. SS would be underfunded. And many people do not know and are not taught investment principles so that they can reliably handle a privatized account. Not sure how Trump will privatize except to use private companies (which to me is a loser) because he whines about Fed being to big!! Remember the Fed (in the privatization scheme under Bush) was going to set up investment plans to choose from. But with Trump cutting the Fed, I can’t see him going that route.

        I am waiting to see his thoughts on Medicare/ Medicaid, ACA ObamaCare, tax breaks, policies that privatize the WH into a business, etc. The man is FUBAR!!! Independents also do not want to abandon Ukraine – we feel we need to live up to our obligations and commitments. I want to hear what Trump will do on that question!

        Reply
      • Tom

        Well Frank, I just read a summary at *https://www.planadviser.com/irs-extends-relief-inherited-ira-10-year-rule-enforcement/* and it does not sound good! Seems like another way for the Fed to get their hands on more of our money. Maybe there will come a time when I will look at Roths or 529’s for the grandkids. Or maybe help them set up their own IRA and gift them money each year. I think all I need is to set it up under their SSN?

        I wonder why Horist does not say anything about this when he praises Trump?

        Reply
        • Frank stetson

          Yes, they open account or ira and you gift into it. Do you use fidelity?

          Reply

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