Putin’s proposed 3-day ceasefire is a Russkie ruse
Putin is now offering a three day ceasefire starting on May 11. It will coincide with Russia celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. But let us not kid ourselves—this is not about a peace plan or a ceasefire. It is not a humanitarian demonstration of good will and good faith. Putin does not embrace those concepts.
It is a public relations gimmick – designed to make it appear that Putin is serious about ending the war. It is a meaningless gesture, even if Putin adheres to his ceasefire – and that always remains in doubt. Remember Putin’s Easter truce? It lasted about as long as the proverbial snowball in Hades. Ukrainian officials reported hundreds of violations within hours.
Putin has a second – and perhaps more important– reason for promoting a ceasefire during that particular time. It is the reason he picked that future date instead of starting immediately. The last thing Putin wants is to have Ukraine pull off some high visibility attack that would embarrass Putin as he celebrates the historic World War II victor – maybe the assassination of another high-ranking general … or sinking another Russian battleship … or a major offensive with a high casualty count –or even a drone attack on Moscow.
Obviously, this is not an offer that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy or President Trump should entertain. Doing so would be a mistake of monumental proportions.
Pushing aside Putin’s bad faith proposal, what is next for Trump? As I noted in a previous commentary, Putin is making a chump of Trump. He has proven that Trump’s self-assessment of being able to deal with Putin is wrong. Offering to meet virtually all of Putin’s demands, Trump has still not been able to get Putin to the negotiating table. In fact, Putin has become ever more aggressive in his bombing of Ukraine. Trump’s response has been to threaten more sanctions and express his disappointment with Putin. All talk. No action.
So, what are the specifics of Trump’s peace plan – as of this writing? And will his strategy change?
The Crimea
Russia waltzed in and took the Crimea by force in 2014. President Obama and NATO played Neville Chamberlain. Trump’s plan is to let Putin have it permanently. He has told Zelenskyy and the world that the Crimea goes to Russia.
Crimea isn’t just a chunk of land—it’s a strategic goldmine. By giving it up, we are not just betraying Ukraine, we are setting a precedent that tells Putin that if you are big enough and bad enough, you can take whatever you want.
Eastern Ukraine
But wait, there’s more. Trump’s plan does not stop at Crimea. It suggests Ukraine should wave the white flag on other territories—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia. You know … the places where Ukrainians are still fighting tooth and nail to defend their homeland.
No NATO in Ukraine’s future
There was once a widely held belief that Ukraine would eventually join NATO. The fear of that is often cited as the reason Putin invaded Ukraine. When Trump says that Ukraine started the war, he is alluding to the NATO possibility as the provocation for Putin’s invasion – and attempt to seize all of Ukraine. Even if that did provoke Putin, it does not justify the invasion.
Not only does Putin not want Ukraine in NATO, he also does not want the nation to have ANY security agreements with other nations — especially the United States and NATO nations. There can only be one reason for that demand. Putin still covets all of Ukraine and wants the country to be as defenseless as possible against a future invasion. And Trump has surrendered that point to Putin.
Save the children
And then there’s the human cost. It is estimated that more than 700,000 Ukrainian children are reported to have been “transferred” to Russia – claiming they are being protected from the war. Conversely, it has been reported that many of the older teens are being pressed into fighting against their own nation – and loved ones. It is family separation of the worst kind. Trump and administration officials have been silent on this issue. Is he going to allow Putin to keep the kids like he can keep the Crimea?
Can You Trust Putin?
Can you trust Vladimir Putin? If your answer is anything other than “absolutely not,” you might want to revisit the last decade of Russian foreign policy. Putin does not do deals; he does power plays. Trusting him to honor a peace agreement is like trusting MSNBC to provide fair and balanced coverage.
Trump needs to man up
With Putin playing the President like a bass fiddle, is there a chance that Trump will come to his senses and realize that playing patty-cake with Putin is a losing proposition? Trump prides himself that he is an extraordinary deal maker, but you cannot make a deal with someone whose only intention is to roll you. You cannot make a fair deal if you concede on all the critical issues before getting to the negotiating table. Putin only wants concessions, not compromise. There is only one way to deal with a man like Putin – that is to defeat him.
Summary
Trump’s peace plan is not a plan for peace. It’s a plan for Ukraine to capitulate. It rewards aggression, sacrifices sovereignty, and ignores the human cost of war. It sets the stage for a future invasion. Ukraine deserves better. The world deserves better. And history will not be kind to those who choose appeasement over principle.
So, there ‘tis.
Larry, Putin can be trusted to be none other than Who Putin is at his worst. Which means he should never be trusted to be fair and even handed. He didn’t rise to power in the brutally corrupt Russian system by not be the most corrupt and brutal individual in control over all aspects of the citizens’ lives.
Trump can only dream of exercising the extent of power Putin has access to. Putin ruthless but acts reserved in the presence of other world leaders he entertains at the Kremlin. Putin is a strongman who will not concede an inch without taking a mile behind Trump’s back.
Trump can’t believe he is equal to the measure of Putin in the Art of the Deal. Putin has psychological moves that Trump wouldn’t have picked up without training in the Russian equivalent of our CIA/Army Rangers/Green Berets all rolled together.
Putin would only give back any of Ukraine’s territory and submit to Ukraine’s demands for independence and sovereignty should he be forced into talks after being soundly defeated militarily.
Trump won’t spend the military capital required to achieve defeat by military means. So, his alternative is the negotiations route with Putin holding most of not all the cards. Trump and Vance told Zelensky during his televised visit in the Oval Office that Zelensky held none of the cards. Trump clearly believes he, POTUS, holds all the cards.
Trumps lies and real estate business charisma may fool his MAGA tribe all the time but Putin has Trump’s number. To be sure he will be ringing Trump’s number and pulling his narcissistic chain.
Ironically, but not funny, Putin is the more narcissistic of the two Putin never doesn’t get his way when Trump is part of the negotiations.
Should Zelensky and his staff have involvement at the same meeting with Putin and Trump. Trump won’t have enough of the high cards in the highest stakes match of either 1.0 and 2.0. A loosing hand for Trump would curb his enthusiasm and tarnish his brand around the world.
Back home in the good old USA, should Trump not be fortunate enough to save something of his skin from his negotiations with Putin. He might have retained the limited authority reserved for him as POTUS. But, his former status as Bully and Chief of all he surveys can be mothballed along with the Bully Pulpit, Trump’s prized possession passed down from Fred Trump, his father.
Trump being Trump eschewing direct confrontation with firing staff. He sends one of his lieutenants to inform that person’s coworker that they are fired and immediately discharged. Trump understand he has no authority to Fire Putin. He can’t send a proxy to negotiate away Ukraine’s sovereignty and possibly save Zelensky from a cell somewhere in Siberia. Trump will be made to pull on his big boy pants and face Putin as POTUS world leader and defender of Ukraine’s sovereignty more than a ceasefire agreement. Trump must push for peace, the end of conflict, and Russia’s withdrawal of it forced from Ukrainian soil. Ukraine must have assurances that Putin will not order a repeat invasion of Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
Crimea’s occupation by Russian forces since 2014 is another of Putin’s military exercises was a contentious land grab of Ukrainian territory. That, too, is under dispute as to its true ownership and a ways beyond Trump’s target for negotiations at the present time. Prognosis for Ukraine’s revival is guarded to dismal, given the negotiating team’s
lack of experience and Ukraine’s position on the ground
Confidence in Trump and his succeeding even partially with a solid ceasefire agreement is fairly low among Americans of all political tribes , excepting the MAGA silo inhabitants who cheer on Trump’s every move.
Larry, given your policies good vs pugnacious bad perceptions of Trump and his presidency so far, have you added him to your list of persons in government of whom you have skepticism or darkest doubts.
You can imagine the depth of my doubt that Trump has any part of him that could at least project a glint of selflessness and goodness of heart representative of human compassion for persons other than himself, his immediate family, or anyone not beholden to him. Therefore, Trump the man must find in himself sufficient character to think beyond his latest wealth taking schemes and his vengeful retaliatory legal actions against his perceived foes and past situations’ opposition, The man carries his grudges long after the cases warrant it.
Trump is a consequence of this nation’s loss of the original ideals that produced moral integrity in Americans who fought wars and won, who chose to live any not give up in the worst of times. Trump was not the agent of that particular sickness with symptoms like arrogance, pride, greed, immorality, condescension, impatience, ill tempered, anger, and lust. All of which are antithetical to everything attributed to a so called woke ideology.
Actually, much of conservatism aligned with wokeism, practice of woke ideology.
Good luck sticking to Trump. Things are going to happen to him in the next couple of years. Because of him ,America will see its decline quicken its pace. Our decline comes as the consequence of all our neglect over the past 30 or more years. Possibly post 1960’s and the Vietnam War effect.
AC: Trump and Larry suffer from Irish Alzheimer’s: can’t remember anything but the grudge. :
Larry suffers from believing there’s intelligent life with integrity there when there’s only a street fighter with an everlasting memory for perceived personal slights of the fabricated kind.