Post conviction polls show … ????

Following President Trump’s conviction by a Manhattan jury, there was much anticipation and speculation about the impact it would have on the campaign.  I was in the “very little” camp – with a possible relatively insignificant bump for Trump or Biden, depending on various polling results. 

Based on recent polls, I was right on the “very little” prediction – but arguably off on a clear bump for Trump.  Some polls show a very small — if any – bump for Biden.  In either case, it means that the conviction’s impact on the race is negligible – and that has to be a great disappointment for Team Biden.  They needed to somehow get ahead in the polls beyond the margin of error – especially in the battleground states.  The conviction did not do it for them.

The polling can be deceptive – and may have been attributed to Democrat optimism.  Prior to the verdict, many polls showed that 10 percent or more of voters would be “less likely” to vote for a candidate who is a convicted felon.  Such a shift would be major.  It would put Trump far behind.

That did not happen – perhaps because it was a bad question.  Too vague.  “Less likely” is not “will not.”  And the “a candidate” was not always tied to Trump specifically.  Voters had to assume.  That may explain why the predicted outcome was nowhere near what the post-conviction polling shows.  Apparently, those who said they were less likely to vote for Trump did not change their vote when faced with a reality rather than an abstract question.

The Reuters/Ipsos post-conviction poll has Biden a 41 to 39 percent lead across the nation – without including other candidates.  According to the New York Times/Sienna University Poll, Trump’s lead over Biden dropped from 3 points to 1 point.  The Harris Poll split at 50/50 – no change.  CNN poll shows Biden with a 52 to 47 percent lead in the national vote.  However, in 2020, Biden led 65 to 32 percent at this time.

It is the battleground states and independent voters that will decide the election. Despite the conviction, Trump maintains his lead in the key states.  He even moved up even – at 48 percent each – in Virginia a state Biden won by 12 points in 2020.  Currently, Trump holds a 12 point lead over Biden among independents with 54 percent to Biden’s 42 percent.

As sensational and controversial as the trial was, it appears to have had a negligible impact on the race.  Many reports say that even a modest change can be significant in such a close race.  And since most polling is in the margin of error, we have no idea if even a modest change has taken place — and if so, to whose advantage.  It will take future events and future polling to give us any useful information.  The major takeaway is that the verdict did not hurt Trump.

Trump is back on the campaign trail.  It appears that he will not be hunkered down by any trials between now and Election Day.  Trump can use that time to his advantage by focusing on the issues that matter to the people.  

In those, Trump enjoys the advantage.  Polls have consistently and decidedly given Trump the advantage in handling the economy, inflation, taxation, the border, education, crime, Ukraine, Israel, jobs – and the age issue.

That leaves Biden with an advantage on abortion — and that issue often fails to make the list of the top ten concerns of voters in most surveys.  And if it does, it is at the bottom of the list.  The most recent Quinnipiac Poll put it at ninth with only 3 percent of voters considering abortion a critical issue in the election. When compared to issues they see as more important, the economy and immigration top the list with a combined total of 48 percent of the voters.

As a result, Democrats and their media allies are trying to convince American voters that Trump is an existential threat to the constitutional Republic – and would become dictator-for-life if elected.  There will never be another free election.  That is such obvious nonsense that it only indicates the inability of Biden to convince the public that he is the guy to handle any of the real issues.  It looks like what it is – pure desperation.

The only significance that can be drawn from the polls is that the trial and the conviction – pending appeal – do not appear to have hurt Trump.  That is what Biden and Democrats had hoped for – and even predicted.  It is what Biden desperately needed to pull ahead.  It did not happen.  Trump has survived the worst they had to throw at him  Democrat prosecutors going after Trump like a pack of political jackals has not worked – and some argue that it actually helped him.

At the moment, there is no clear winner.  Predictions are necessarily cautious.  We will have to see if one of them can emerge more convincingly in the future – or whether we will face election eve with a statistical tie in the polls.  Stay tuned.

So, there ‘tis.