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Post conviction polls show … ????

Post conviction polls show … ????

Following President Trump’s conviction by a Manhattan jury, there was much anticipation and speculation about the impact it would have on the campaign.  I was in the “very little” camp – with a possible relatively insignificant bump for Trump or Biden, depending on various polling results. 

Based on recent polls, I was right on the “very little” prediction – but arguably off on a clear bump for Trump.  Some polls show a very small — if any – bump for Biden.  In either case, it means that the conviction’s impact on the race is negligible – and that has to be a great disappointment for Team Biden.  They needed to somehow get ahead in the polls beyond the margin of error – especially in the battleground states.  The conviction did not do it for them.

The polling can be deceptive – and may have been attributed to Democrat optimism.  Prior to the verdict, many polls showed that 10 percent or more of voters would be “less likely” to vote for a candidate who is a convicted felon.  Such a shift would be major.  It would put Trump far behind.

That did not happen – perhaps because it was a bad question.  Too vague.  “Less likely” is not “will not.”  And the “a candidate” was not always tied to Trump specifically.  Voters had to assume.  That may explain why the predicted outcome was nowhere near what the post-conviction polling shows.  Apparently, those who said they were less likely to vote for Trump did not change their vote when faced with a reality rather than an abstract question.

The Reuters/Ipsos post-conviction poll has Biden a 41 to 39 percent lead across the nation – without including other candidates.  According to the New York Times/Sienna University Poll, Trump’s lead over Biden dropped from 3 points to 1 point.  The Harris Poll split at 50/50 – no change.  CNN poll shows Biden with a 52 to 47 percent lead in the national vote.  However, in 2020, Biden led 65 to 32 percent at this time.

It is the battleground states and independent voters that will decide the election. Despite the conviction, Trump maintains his lead in the key states.  He even moved up even – at 48 percent each – in Virginia a state Biden won by 12 points in 2020.  Currently, Trump holds a 12 point lead over Biden among independents with 54 percent to Biden’s 42 percent.

As sensational and controversial as the trial was, it appears to have had a negligible impact on the race.  Many reports say that even a modest change can be significant in such a close race.  And since most polling is in the margin of error, we have no idea if even a modest change has taken place — and if so, to whose advantage.  It will take future events and future polling to give us any useful information.  The major takeaway is that the verdict did not hurt Trump.

Trump is back on the campaign trail.  It appears that he will not be hunkered down by any trials between now and Election Day.  Trump can use that time to his advantage by focusing on the issues that matter to the people.  

In those, Trump enjoys the advantage.  Polls have consistently and decidedly given Trump the advantage in handling the economy, inflation, taxation, the border, education, crime, Ukraine, Israel, jobs – and the age issue.

That leaves Biden with an advantage on abortion — and that issue often fails to make the list of the top ten concerns of voters in most surveys.  And if it does, it is at the bottom of the list.  The most recent Quinnipiac Poll put it at ninth with only 3 percent of voters considering abortion a critical issue in the election. When compared to issues they see as more important, the economy and immigration top the list with a combined total of 48 percent of the voters.

As a result, Democrats and their media allies are trying to convince American voters that Trump is an existential threat to the constitutional Republic – and would become dictator-for-life if elected.  There will never be another free election.  That is such obvious nonsense that it only indicates the inability of Biden to convince the public that he is the guy to handle any of the real issues.  It looks like what it is – pure desperation.

The only significance that can be drawn from the polls is that the trial and the conviction – pending appeal – do not appear to have hurt Trump.  That is what Biden and Democrats had hoped for – and even predicted.  It is what Biden desperately needed to pull ahead.  It did not happen.  Trump has survived the worst they had to throw at him  Democrat prosecutors going after Trump like a pack of political jackals has not worked – and some argue that it actually helped him.

At the moment, there is no clear winner.  Predictions are necessarily cautious.  We will have to see if one of them can emerge more convincingly in the future – or whether we will face election eve with a statistical tie in the polls.  Stay tuned.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

2 Comments

  1. Hammon

    Trump is winning!! So suck it up Frank.

    Reply
  2. frank stetson

    Hammon, you can win the polls, we’ll take the actual vote. IMO, too early given it’s too close to call, literally within the margin of error.

    Pretty sure most thought there would not be much of a bounce on the court case, but any bounce would tip towards Biden. So it was. As Horist surmised, the weakest of cases. Trump too, as he continues to attempt maximum delay of all. As an innocent man, he does not want his day in court. As the strongest man, he does not want his day in court. Does not even want his own judge to actually preside over the documents case.

    Looks like the debates will be the next potential change. Given Trump’s recent performances off teleprompter, we’re ready to go. And that’s 6/27 so a few weeks out.

    Republican voters are pretty set, I don’t expect Biden to shake anything out of that tree. Indictments don’t matter, felonies don’t matter, rape does not matter, and defamation — hey, that’s expected and desired. They cheer for that shit. Trump promises continued cruelty with the addition of retribution and revenge as “dictator for a day.” The folks supporting him don’t even want to go to court on the open indictments. They don’t want to know that he tried to rig the election as described in the GA case. Don’t care about top secret documents in a unsecure room with a communist party member living in his cabana. And certainly, they don’t care about 1.6.2021 as a potential defrauding of the American voter. They think insurrectionists are patriots. In general, on Trump’s potential crimes, they just don’t care and don’t even want to look under the hood at what might have happened. They got an old crazy man promising revenge and that’s OK. The problem is not the application of the law, the problem is the Democrats are meanies.

    Democrats have an old, stuttering fool that looks like dementia, he seems to act slow and imprecise. An let’s face it, old people are stupid people. In general. Democrats have a good number of defectors and doubters, the young, black men, Hispanics, and probably some Israeli Americans and American Jews. Mostly progressives that have not gotten the progress they wanted. Biden has lost too many to win at this point. However, the more Trump speaks, the more of these I expect to switch back. If Biden wins the debate, or breaks even, so much the better. But it’s not a good place when your main argument is that the other guy is bad.

    The polls favor Trump by a sliver and Biden has to win people back. Biden can give up on the deplorables, hell, they’re claiming they are lock and loaded for a Biden win right here on PBP because they already know for Biden to win, there must be cheating. Just like the last time Biden cheated and they can’t prove that either. Zealotry for a charismatic authoritarian leader. Brownshirts all. Chances are only Trump can lose Republicans with a conscience, Biden can’t steal them. And that’s where the rape comes in as unimportant, the rigging of the 2016 election via hush money to a couple of women in the porn trade is something everyone does, who doesn’t cheat at business, on their wives, cheat the taxpayers, you know things that evangelists and others of high moral standards like to vote for.

    The debates can show us a better comparison and I don’t have a clue which Don and which Joe will turn up. The polls will show us little UNLESS something notable this way comes. And these indictments, even if Trump let them go to trial, seemingly will change nothing in his supporters.

    Reply

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