Not looking so good for Trump these days but …

We are now just a month away from counting the ballots.  Voting in several states – including battleground states – is underway.  So, what can we see in the crystal ball?

Polling is not always a reliable peak into the future – think 2016.  But it – and some sense of history – is all we have.

At this moment, polling gives the edge to Vice President Harris.  She has maintained a lead in the national vote in the most reliable polls.  She also leads in the battleground states enough to win in the Electoral College.  BUT (a big ‘but’) most of the polling is within the margin-of-error.

While Harris has not surged in any poll, she has been creeping up little by little.  That could be seen as a trend or movement – albeit very very modest momentum.  Since the Trump and Harris campaigns are becalmed in the political margin-of-error doldrums, even a little breeze is meaningful.  And that breeze is filling Harris’ sails more than Trump’s at this moment.

So, what does it look like in real numbers.  In several key polls, Harris holds a 4 to 5 point lead across the nation.  Though in the margin of error, it is still significant since the final outcome is likely to be that close – or closer.  The election results will likely land in the margin-of-error range.

In recent days, Harris has the edge in the blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota – with Pennsylvania a dead heat.  Trump has been ahead in the sun belt.  But more recent polls show him tied in North Carolina.  A recent FOX poll now has Harris ahead in Georgia.  If those numbers hold up, it is game over for Trump.

That is where a little history comes in.  In 2016 and 2020, Trump outperformed the polls by a lot.  It led to a surprising win in 2016 and a much closer race than polls suggested in 2020.

History may not be applicable this year.  Pollsters, who crafted their models with too many Democrats and too many younger voters, may have corrected the problem.  Maybe they are getting it right this time.

Trump seems to benefit in the polls from voters who will not reveal their intention to cast ballots for him.  This is due to the shaming efforts by Democrats – casting Trump voters as political zombies.  They fib to pollsters.

Also, many things are different this time.  We have had the events of January 6, 2021, seemingly endless legal problems for Trump and a legion of erstwhile Republican leaders and Trump administration officials jumping ship.

According to the polls. Trump leads on all the critical issues that voters say are most important to them.  To the frustration of staffers, friends and GOP voters, Trump has done a poor job of focusing on his winning issues.

While it is impossible to predict with certainty whether Trump or Harris will assume the presidency on January 20, 2025, the crystal ball is favoring Harris at the moment – and Trump does not have a lot of time to change that projection.

So, there ‘tis.