Israel takes out Sinwar. Now what?
Israel continues its string of ending the careers of terrorist leaders. The latest victim of Jewish justice is Yahya Sinwar — arguably one of the most brutal and defiant leaders in the Middle East terrorist network. He was the mastermind behind the savage attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Justice is not always swift but seems to be certain for terrorist leaders. Since the United States killed the number one terrorist leader in the world – Osama bin Laden – in a bold raid into Pakistan in 2011, the list of assassinations has included:
- Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, ISIS spokesman killed by U.S. airstrike in Syria in 2016.
- Hamza bin Laden, Osama’s son killed in U.S. airstrike in Syria in 2019.
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS leader killed by U.S. airstrike in Syria in 2019.
- Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Quds Force killed by U.S. drone in Iraq in 2020.
- Abu Ibrahim al-Hashiimi al Aurashi, successor to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, killed in an U.S. raid in Syria in 2022.
- Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s successor as hear of al-Qaeda, killed by U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan in 2022.
- Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas leader killed in a daring bombing in Tehran in 2024.
- Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah was killed in in Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon in 2024
- Salen al-Arouri, Hamas deputy leader died in the attack that killed Nasrallah in 2024.
Prior to bin Laden was killed, Israel had knocked off PLO leader Abu Jihad (1988), PLO Secretary General Abu Ali Mustafa (2001), Hama co-founder Ahmed Yassin (2004) and Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh (2008).
Most significant of all may be the death of Sinwar since it comes at a time when Israel has put the entire Irani terrorist network on the defensive. Israel has crushed Hamas’ military capability and is in the final stages of ending the terrorist group’s hold on Gaza.
At the same time, Israel has surprised the world with its capability in taking on Hezbollah in Lebanon – a terrorist organization that was thought to be too strong, too powerful. The Israeli military has driven Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon, killed its leader and destroyed two-thirds of its missile capabilities.
At the same time, Israel has shown its capability of striking into Iran, itself – with amazing covert operations and missile strikes. The world still awaits the Israel response to the Irani missile and drone strikes on the Jewish state. If history is a guide, the Israeli response will be significant — despite Tehran’s promise to retaliate to any retaliation.
Sinwar’s death is significant because he has been tagged as the chief obstacle to a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. Will the next leader of Hamas maintain the same hardline or will he see the writing on the wall and take a more conciliatory approach to a ceasefire and release of the hostage? Or will Hamas continue the fight until the death of the last man standing?
To the extend Hamas has any leadership at this moment, it rests with two individuals currently residing in Qatar – Khaled Meshaal and Mouse Abu Marzouk. They will pick up the gauntlet in terms of negations, if any do ensue. It is now necessary for Qatar to use its influence to convince them that Hamas has no future – and they have no longevity – if they do not come to terms on a deal to end the hostilities and release the hostages.
There still is a difference in strategy between Tel Aviv and Washington. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said the battle will continue until Hamas and Hezbollah surrender – and accept the right of Isreal to exist. His plan is victory over terrorism. Washington still pushes an immediate ceasefire.
Just a few days ago, it was leaked out of Washington that the Biden administration was considering withholding some military aid to Israel in order to mount pressure for a ceasefire. The killing of Sinwar makes that tactic a non-starter. It makes no sense to undermine your allies when they are winning.
There are two reactions that provide hope that a more peaceful future – one without pervasive terrorism – can be reached. The first is the reaction of the Palestinian people to the death of Sinwar. There were no huge public demonstrations. No gnashing of teeth and threats of revenge. That and other evidence suggest that the Palestinian people may … just may … be tiring of Hamas.
The second has been a longer indicator of hope. Even as Israel has declared war on terrorists – and has shown that they mean business – there has been very little response or criticism from most of the Arab nations. Even Iran’s closest potential ally, Syria, has been more passive than active.
The Middle East is at an inflection point. Washington is currently divided between a Chamberlain appeasement strategy and a Churchill victory strategy. Fortunately, it appears that the Churchill approach is winning – thanks to Israel’s refusal to give up the goal of victory. Netanyahu said, “enough is enough” — and this time he seems to mean it.
So, there “tis.
Unless I missed it, I think the author left out that Netanyahu has signaled this death opens the doors to end this all. At least it’s another call to the table, God (all of them) only knows if either side wants to really sit down.
Also the fact that the US is delivering some new missile technology and the folks to set it up and train.
Also the fact that beyond all the rhetoric, you have to know that Israel benefits from our intelligence like they did from our downing a number of the inbound Iranian missiles.
Yes, we want it to end. Yes, officially we want apartheid to end. Yes, we support Israel with guns, money, intelligence and more. And yes, Biden continues to nudge Netanyahu towards settlement.
BUT —- while Hamas leadership, Hezbollah leadership is diminished, most still expect the attack on Iran to commence shortly which could put us back at square one or worse. IMO, pretty good risk to take especially since the US is not in the driver’s seat, but firmly in back seat as a driver. So, yeah, there’s a lot of rhetoric going on.
Did Kamala say go into Rafah and look for Yahya Sinwar and get him? NO!
She said stay out and do not fight there.
Anything to appease BOTH sides!
Just like when this country was told Bin Laden was not in Pakistan and
there he was.
Only our leader at the time was not a political clown trying to give
the bad guys a pass!
Apparently, negotiations will not consider a two state solution. If Israel proves its strength in victory, will it press on to Iran? That action will provoke retaliation, surely. An American response would fall to whomever is elected president, the recipient of a successful peaceful handoff of power on January 20th. Israel must be watching this country’s Presidential Election in November with concern. The U.S. historically has been Israel’s benefactor behind its long fight for national sovereignty.
Will a change in Washington affect America’s pro-Israel stance? Will the change in leadership at the level of the presidency change US military and financial support in Israel’s war on Hamas? Then, consider a situation where the leadership change comes with a switch in political party philosophy? Can Israel still depend on US backing if a change in party scenario becomes another version in America’s present amorphous reality? Then, Israel will be chewing on its nails more than it has been in war conditions.
Americans know something about nail chewing level worrying conditions. War time worries present understandable anxiety. But in the U.S. peace time offers little reprieve from anxiety and worry. Our citizenry is a creatively inventive lot and ambitiously industrious, too. When we put our mind to it, we will design ways of make fictitious molehills into fantasy mountains the size of the very real Mount Everest. Who wouldn’t chew their nails imagining that mountain crashing down on us two weeks from Tuesday.
It’s no wonder Israel keeps checking America’s psyche. And Ukraine’s president come to America time after time with request for monetary and military assistance in its war with Putin’s Russia for national sovereignty and return of land unlawfully invaded.
Israel is a supposed democracy. Things continuing in this country of a distrustfully divisive nature ours will erode our rightful claim to be a democratic society. This country is bound for supposed status as long as we the people choose division and delight to fight. Loosing sight of the US Constitution’s truths and actual statements as facts in law is a sin against democracy.
What is the spirit and the letter of the 1st Amendment of the Constitution as written. Its many interpretations beside the correct reading actually stamp in its spirit and transgress its meaning in law.
One party’s interpretation in application with words does not restrict another party from exercising the right guaranteed in the same Amendment. Democracy is a two way street meant for the benefit of all those who live within the nation’s boarders. Out country’s founding fathers in fact were not walking their talk as they wrote the ambitious language that makes our nation’s rule of law the example other people look to in awe. We the people pale in comparison because we are not true patriots who honor their country by giving our fellow citizens respect and dignity. Prejudice acted out in harm to another, whether or not the other person is aware of what was done, is a crack in democracy that weakens and diminishes one’s perception of democracy’s spirit.
IMO you, Larry, leave out of your perception the appropriate context real and complete when you relate happenings in human experience made publicly available on media sources. A ton of material is available for research if one knows where and has time for searching. You apparently have your sources. However, ingredients in hand do not bake up equally into similar cakes. Your articles have information I find interestingly framed as it’s pulled together from a particular perspective, one that gives a contrary political slant to mine. But, the raw information that your articles draws from has been grist for the mill that has produced enriched flour going into nutritional cakes suitable for all.tastes.