In case you did not notice …. Republicans take lead in number of voters
For many years, polls have shown a consistent advantage for the Democratic Party. There have been more Democrat declared voters than Republican declared voters. Not anymore. Republicans have inched into the lead.
The most recent NBC Poll shows 40 percent of voters identify as Democrats and 41 percent say they are Republicans. In 2016, President Trump won despite a 7-point lead for Democrats.
It also appears that there has been a reduction in the number of non-aligned independent voters to 19 percent. Some past polls have shown Democrats with the lead followed by independents – putting Republican voters in third place. Past gains among independents were either illusionary or a lot more Americans are choosing a side in recent months.
This trend was also seen in an April Pew Research Poll showing that the past 7-point advantage for Democrats had dropped to a 1-point advantage in December of 2023.
While a 1-point lead in the NBC Poll is in the margin of error and may essentially reflect a tie, the movement from a solid 7-point lead for Democrats to a statistical tie is dramatic – and not good news for Team Biden.
Conventional wisdom – and some statistical evidence – has put the majority of the independent vote into the Democrat Camp. According to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, Biden carried the independent vote by 13 points in 2020 – 54 percent to 41 percent. Current surveys put the split at only 4 points – 52 to 48, a 9-point drop for Biden.
While the number of Republican core voters is increasing, the number of Democrats is decreasing in three major categories – Blacks, Hispanics and Women. Democrats still hold a formidable lead in those demographics, but not as formidable as in the past.
Pew numbers show a drop in Black support for Democrats from 83 percent in 2016 to 71 percent in the most recent poll – a phenomenal drop of 12 points. It that is the reality in the election, it is arguably the most dramatic loss of Black voters for the Democratic Party in 50-plus years.
Democrats are suffering significant losses in Hispanic support. NBC polling showed a 39-point advantage in 2016. Today it is a 26-point advantage – a drop of 13 points.
While partisan strategists quibble over the exact numbers … find outlier polls with different outcomes … or spin the facts as best they can … there is one irrefutable fact. Trump and the GOP are drawing support from Blacks and Hispanics in numbers not seen in several decades.
According to Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the shift in the Black and Hispanic vote is not all due to Trump’s appeal, but a growing disenchantment with Biden’s policies.
Statistically, Blacks and Hispanics are hit hardest by the Biden inflation and his immigration policies that have had significant negative impacts on Blacks and Hispanics in the major urban centers – including shifting of financial resources … occupation of schools and other public places … and increased crime.
The future election is currently judged to be very close based on today’s numbers. However, these shifts in the polling statistics suggest the possibility of a breakpoint in which one of the candidates surges to a significant lead. The momentum for such an occurrence is with Trump. The polling numbers have been consistently trending in Trump’s favor throughout the campaign – and despite all the baggage Democrats have been piling on.
The under-reported shift in party affiliation may seem modest, but may merely be the first rumblings of much larger and more fundamental change in American politics. Stay tuned.
So, there ‘Tis.
” In 2016, President Trump won despite a 7-point lead for Democrats.” And Trump lost the popular vote and almost every Trumpian candidate, abortion votes, has lost since 2020.
Not to mention, Trump’s convictions on 34 felony counts in furtherance of his conspiracy to rig the 2016 election as adjudicated by the State supreme court.
Take your 1%: we will make it up in the Independents.
In case you didn’t notice, Trump is now a CRIMINAL. That won’t matter to his diehard supporters, as Trump could rape five little girls and they would still vote for him. There is nothing he can do that will lose their vote. They are fanatics. Think Dear Leader. Watching the Republicans grovel over Trump is a case in point.
But they cannot elect him, in and of themselves. It’s the voters on the margin that matter. And I’m willing to bet he lost a good many of them when he got convicted. This quote says it all:
“Actually, the crime wave that started under Trump has now ebbed, and crime as a whole is close to a 50-year low—except among former U.S. presidents, of course. Among that admittedly narrow cohort, it’s up approximately 100%”
I expect to see Trump and his violent supporters increase the odds of him losing the election going forward, as they attack anyone even remotely connected to his mayhem that blames him for creating it.
Andrew Gutterman …. I can respect hour opinion, but we do known what impact the conviction will have — or any at all as future events overtake the issue. Not sure where you got your quote, but that is not in line with most stats. A lot of stats do not lists Fentanyl deaths as crimes. That is a huge omission. The stats do not count the crimes committed in riots, protests and occupations. All those “crash and dash” lootings are not counted unless there are arrests– and there rarely are. You are making the same mistake that Democrats make. You try to tell folks back home that they are not experiencing what they are experiencing. Whatever the real numbers are, crime is a serious problem in the eyes of voters and Biden & Co. are viewed as being soft one crime because they are.
If you go here … https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/05/23/publics-positive-economic-ratings-slip-inflation-still-widely-viewed-as-major-problem/ … you will see a recent chart from Pew Research survey of the 15 top issues. Crime related issues are 6 of the 15, starting with number three. Interestingly, abortion does not even make the top 15 in the Pew survey.
You can also check out a recent Gallup Poll of the 14 top issues. Crime is number 2 — and again abortion does not make the list.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642887/inflation-immigration-rank-among-top-issue-concerns.aspx.
Mr Gutter man says full of Horist shit, priceless ad hominem allowance…..
In both formal study topics, the field of issues was predefined and abortion was not included so of course it did not get a ranking. Idiot. Just got to love Horist’s confirmation: “again abortion does not make the list.” Got that right. Gallup and Pew did not have it on the list. A Captain Obvious mistake.
Now, to be honest, for Gallup, a simple search would tell you they also included a free association portion in the survey where people could list free hand what they thought important. And look, abortion hits the list. The whole section seems a little whacky, but that’s the data. It’s in the top ten at ten, at 3% or as important as Crime/Violence, Elections/Election reform/Democracy, Race relations/Racism, Ethics/Moral/Religious/Family decline, Foreign policy/Foreign aid/Focus overseas, and Unemployment.
Horist also fails to note the acid truth: voting, where abortion bans continue to be overturned by voters consistently every time they are put on the ballot. Do you want me to list all the States where the vote proves the relevance.
Horist whines that Democrats continue to tell Republicans how good the economy is that they cant see for themselves. Right back at you on abortion big guy. The voters have spoke volumes.
Frank Stetson … You are either intellectually corrupt and a liar or you are showing ignorance. Probably both. It was an open ended question not a limited list. Geez! You just cannot fix stupid.