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How many hostages are still alive?

How many hostages are still alive?

It is a grim and disturbing question.  It is not one that is raised in media reports on hostage negotiations.  The fact is that we know very little about the conditions of the hostages – or whether they are all still alive.  But what we have learned is very ominous. 

Determining the exact number of hostages at any given time – or in any given condition – is more like counting the beans in the jar.  Reports vary widely in terms of exact numbers.  Current reporting suggests that there are approximately 130 hostages in captivity – including five Americans.

Numbers have never been precise.  We are told that approximately 1200 people were killed in the Hamas attack.   It was estimated that 240 people were taken into Gaza and between 70 and 100 of them were murdered in the days following the attack. That left between 140 to 150 hostages in Hamas custody.  So far, 86 have been released.  That leaves approximately 54 to 64 still in captivity. 

So, how do we get the 130 number?  For the sake of discussion, we should assume that the 130 figure is correct – and that some earlier reports were not.

The hint of a grim reality was revealed when Hamas said that there were less than 20 hostages suitable for a prisoner exchange.  They are mostly women, children, the elderly and the infirmed.  If that is true approximately 110 hostages are unaccounted for – or may have been killed since their capture.

That is not an unreasonable fear.  Hostages who have been released describe the inhuman cruelty of their captors – including harassment, beatings, torture, rape and murder.  So, it is not a stretch to believe that Hamas terrorists continued to kill the mostly Jewish hostages during their captivity.

No American was released in the negotiated hostage exchanges.  Media folk speculated why Hamas did not release any Americans – or why Biden had not insisted on their release during negotiations handled by the administration.   In fact, Biden has not said a lot about the American hostages. 

Some media folks speculated that Hamas did not release any Americans because of Biden’s refusal to cut off aid to Israel. Another possibility is that there are no Americans alive to be released.  That question goes unasked by Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

The possibility that most of the hostages may already be dead may explain why Hamas has been reluctant to enter into more hostage exchange negotiation.  Perhaps even those 20 remaining hostages do not exist – with the exception of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who was shown in a Hamas propaganda video in which his missing left hand could be seen.

When the hostages were first taken – and in view of the savage brutality of the Hamas attack on innocent men, women and children – I was sadly skeptical that most of the hostages would be repatriated alive. 

Hamas terrorists were torn between two motives with regard to the hostages – to carry out their visceral hatred of all Jews, Americans, and infidels by killing them, or to use them as bargaining chips to win concessions, such as temporary cease-fires.  It appears they did a little of both.

It would not surprise me if we had already seen the last of the prisoner exchanges.  Hamas may be out of “chips.”  Why they would refuse to negotiate the release of the ill, the elderly and children is worrisome.

Whatever happens in the future to any surviving hostages – and no matter how many hostages have died – Hamas bears 100 percent responsibility.  No hostages would be dead …  no Israeli citizens would be dead … no Israeli soldiers would be dead …  no Palestinian citizens would be dead … were it not for the murderous October 7th attack on Israeli and other international citizens – including Americans.

War is a terrible thing.  Citizens die because of the blood thirst and ambitions of their leaders.  The only way to stop the current conflict is to annihilate Hamas.  Unfortunately, that cannot be done without the loss of innocent lives – especially since Hamas uses the people as shields.

Israel did not start this war on Hamas – just as the Ukrainians did not start the war with Russia.  The evil aggressors are known.  They cannot be allowed to succeed.

We can all hope and pray that all hostages that remain alive will be released or rescued soon, but I am not optimistic.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So, there ‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of businessman, conservative writer and political strategist Larry Horist. Larry has an extensive background in economics and public policy. For more than 40 years, he ran his own Chicago based consulting firm. His clients included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. Larry professional emphasis has been on civil rights and education. He was consultant to both the Chicago and the Detroit boards of education, the Educational Choice Foundation, the Chicago Teachers Academy and the Chicago Academy for the Performing Arts. Larry has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and has lectured at colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern and DePaul. He served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. Larry has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries have appeared on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by audiences for his style, substance and sense of humor. Larry retired from his consulting business to devote his time to writing. His books include a humorous look at collecting, “The Acrapulators’ Guide”, and a more serious history of the Democratic Party’s role in de facto institutional racism, “Who Put Blacks in That PLACE? -- The Long Sad History of the Democratic Party’s Oppression of Black Americans ... to This Day”. Larry currently lives in Boca Raton, Florida.

2 Comments

  1. FRANK STETSON

    Why does PBP Bill Sheridan ban free speech responses on his stories?
    Why does Hoirst write about Hamas hostages, Israel, and mention Biden four times?

    He mentions Israel only six times, I think it’s their war, their hostages, and three of those time are in the same paragraph explaining how they would not be harmed if not for Hamas.

    There might be 4-6 American or dual citizen Americans as hostages. Three got out on the first release; did Horist mention, or mention Biden? His first badmouthing of Biden states: “Biden had not insisted on their release during negotiations handled by the administration” for which, of course, he has no proof. How the fuck does he know what’s being asked of who in which conversation. Was he there? Did anyone provide evidence of this? Or is it typical Horist “everybody knows it” crap….. He sums: “Biden has not said a lot about the American hostages.” Actually, if you jfgi: “biden speaks about Hamas US hostage situation,” plenty comes up. Horist ignores this truth, doesn’t’ care to look, and would rather see hostage scenario management by a crazy man calling everyone names and taunting that he will drop the big one. Or honor the US through assassination. No, the current hostage news that Horist also IGNORES is from The Hill where 17 world leaders, together, not one guy baying like a dog at the moon, no, these 17 leaders put together a statement, and package: “We call for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza now for over 200 days. They include our own citizens,” the leaders wrote. “The fate of the hostages and the civilian population in Gaza, who are protected under international law, is of international concern.” No threats, a request, where the receivers should know it will never be requested again. Horist ignores where they talk “our own citizens.”

    OK, two or three Americans released. Israeli’s, for all their bombs, all their talk, saved three hostages but also murdered three who were waving a white flag that said SOS, HELP, THREE HOSTAGES. And the Hospital bombing, the killing of seven Aid Workers in a marked truck, you can even read the marks after the missiles killed them all. Probably over 225 Humanitarian worker deaths at this point. Refugee camps bombed. Aid Trucks bombed, detained, and delayed. Over 35,000 innocents DEAD and this is Israeli profits? Mathematically it sure seems that the Israeli plan that Horist wants to escalate is making things decidedly not better nor bringing ANYONE home.

    The situation is inhuman. It is dire. And whatever Israel is doing, they are clearly not succeeding in getting the hostages out. It’s time to try another plan. Perhaps the 17 world leaders can make a difference. Although not one Muslim nation signed. Fucking pussies or worse, enablers. Trump likes the Saudi’s, they give his family BILLIONS. They didn’t sign so he could be elected probably. Horist will vote for him too. I just hope Biden and the 17 have a Plan B, because Israel’s Plan A is a failure that has offed over 35,000 people, mostly innocent or compliant, and more humanitarian workers than any war in decades. They are shooting down innocents in marked vehicles, ones with SOS-HOSTAGES white flags, food distribution points, refugee camps. They have their pound of flesh and then some, it’s time to try something better.

    To say Biden is not doing things to get our folks out, to get everyone out, seems to be Horist reading between the lines of all conversations, formal and informal, which he is just not privy to except in his hallucinations. Not everything is partisan or political; this is life and death. No time for guesstimates.

  2. Tom

    This article gets a Stop The Spin rating of STS – 4 for the following reasons:

    1) The author (I doubt) has been privy to any high level conversations between the U.S., Israel, Qatar for Hamass (I spelled it that way for a reason!).

    2) Hamas released four hostages in two batches in October. Americans Judith Raanan, 59, and her daughter Natalie, 17, were released Oct. 20.

    3) Another American released, Abigail Edan, was on her way to the hospital for checks, Israel’s Channel 13 said. Her grandfather, Carmel Edan, told Reuters he “simply could not believe” she had been returned, thanking Biden “for all the help he’s offered us.”

    4) Biden has very little control over what Israel does, and no control over Iran and it’s proxy Hamass.

    5) Article is full of speculation and conjecture, and low on facts. And in the case of Americans released, the article’s {Larry’s} facts are simply wrong.

    My personal opinion is that this situation is very terrible. Larry is correct that this entire situation is the fault of Hamass. Israel has the right to defend itself, but at what cost. I personally do not care about the Palestinian casualties because some of them are the same persons that voted in Hamass, and have benefited from Hamass over the years. The fact that their children are paying the price as well is nothing new, children often pay the price – but at least in this case maybe that will result in less Hamass terrorists on day. Now their anti-Israel ideology is biting them all in the ass. Israel has done more to scare Iran in the past six months than the US has done in twenty years. Good for Israel. I agree that the war should be ended. So let the chicken-shit Arabs who want to pussy-foot around with Iran and do not want to offend their Muslim towel head neighbor step up and secure the situation once and for all. Thanks to Jordan for being level headed. Boooo on Qatar for being dishonest negotiators (again, Biden cannot do anything about Qatar). Boooo on China for supporting Iran for the sake of oil and not helping stop the war, (again Biden cannot do anything about this either.)

    The truth is that this world is being bifurcated into authoritarian regimes with their theocratic allies and into democratic countries and their economic allies. We need to support Israel despite the crazy rants of Bibbi Nit. He is correct that Hamass needs to be vanquished but the fact is that Hamass is an ideology and it will be around after Bibbi is gone. Best thing is to educate Palestinians on a new dream for themselves and get them to denounce Hamass, Iran, and kick them out of Palestine, and work with Israel, Jordan, to establish a peaceful region for Jews and Palestinians. But this too may be a pipe dream because the Bible says this will never happen because God ordained enmity between Jacob {Israel} and Esau {Palestinians}.