GOP Is the Apparent Winner In the Redistricting Fight, Midterms Still a Problem?

Back-to-back redistricting victories in court given Republicans a win that has them gaining confidence. But fear remains that President Trump’s lagging approval ratings, the war and other factors threaten the GOP’s grip on Congress six months out from the midterm elections.

The Virginia Supreme Court’s recent decision blocking a gerrymandered map, which could have netted Democrats up to four House seats, comes less than two weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court limited the use of race in redistricting, which has Republican-led states moving to draw out majority-Black, Democratic-held districts in the South in the coming weeks.

The Virginia ruling hits Democrats especially hard, because outside of California, it was the party’s best chance at netting a significant number of seats in the redistricting battles, and the party sunk tens of millions of dollars into getting the maps approved by voters. The ruling comes as a handful of Southern states like Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina are moving to quickly redraw lines in light of last week’s Supreme Court ruling, new lines that could eliminate a Democratic-held district in each state.

Some of the redistricting gains are only in pencil at this point, as House races don’t always mimic the past elections used to measure them when political mapmakers are doing the drawing.

But as one structural piece of the midterms gets better for Republicans, the overall national mood remains sour for the party. Poll after poll shows Trump’s approval below 40% and Americans deeply frustrated with his handling of the economy. A handful of reputable polls shows Democrats erasing the GOP’s long-held edge on the economy.

Still, the total picture on redistricting has Republicans more optimistic.

“While they may have an advantage on the environment, we have an advantage on the terrain. The terrain doesn’t change, the environment does,” one national Republican strategist involved in House races told NBC News.

Another national Republican House strategist echoed that sentiment, while also pointing to the GOP fundraising edge across party groups and super PACs as another important advantage.

Rep. Richard Hudson, who leads the House GOP campaign committee, said in a statement that the Virginia court ruling “is yet another sign Republicans have the momentum heading into November. We’re on offense, and we’re going to win.”

Also speaking anonymously, a “national Democratic strategist” involved in House races told the outlet, “We’d much rather be us than them, but this has never been a given for us at all. It is a setback … but this does not change our overall outlook in how we are thinking about and our confidence in winning back the House.”