Florida politics … setting the tone for America
While President Trump and Democratic Party chaos are dominating the news, Florida has been seeing a lot of political action. For me, it Is a tale of two states – the degeneration of my home state of Illinois under woke Democrat rule – especially Chicago, a city I loved – and the commonsense conservatism of my new home in the Sunshine State.
The Governorship
Governor Ron DeSantis will exit office after the 2026 midterm elections. He has hit his two-term limit. (By the way, kudos to Florida for embracing term limits. No problem with booting deadwood public officials holding office for more years than the life expectancy of an alligator. But I digress.)
DeSantis has been a popular governor. You may recall, he won reelection in 2022 by 59 percent over Republican-turn-Democrat Charlie Crist – the strongest Republican victory in a Democrat winning year. (Former Republican Governor Crist also made a run for the Sunshine State U.S. Senate seat in 2010 as an independent – receiving 29 percent of the vote against the run-away winner Marco Rubio and the third place Democrat candidate, Kendrick Meek. But I digress again.)
Casey DeSantis
Ron DeSantis stepping down does not mean there will not be a DeSantis in the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee in 2027. The governor’s wife, former television anchor Casey DeSantis, has been the odds-on favorite to take over. But a problem has developed. She has been running Florida Hope Foundation – an organization designed to help economically disadvantaged Floridians seek financial independence.
The State reached a settlement with Centene of $67 million for overcharging on prescription drugs. Under the deal, the State would receive $57 million and $10 million would go to Hope Florida. Critics yelled “foul”. An initial investigation uncovered some errors in record keeping, but nothing that would bring down Casey’s plans to run in 2026, according to most political pundits.
Another Political Retread for Governor
Eyeing the Democrat nomination for governor is another Republican-turned-Democrat – former Congressman David Jolly. He initially turned on Trump — and was reward with a contributor job at MSNBC. With the passion of zealot, Jolly has spent the past few years attacking Trump … Republican leaders … and the 77 million voters who reelected Trump (and incidentally flipped the House and Senate to the GOP). I suspect that Jolly will suffer the same fate as the previous flip-flopper, Charlie Crist. Jolly has positioned himself too far to the left for the good people of Florida.
The State Senate
Florida’s Democrat Senate Minority Leader Jason Pizzo shocked the political establishment when he announced that he was leaving the leadership post and the Democratic Party — changing his registration to independent. In departing the donkey party, Pizzo offered a scathing rebuke of his former political home — calling it a “dead” party.
The party faithful pounced on Pizzo like he was prime beef in a lion’s lair. Florida Democrat state chair Nikki Fried issued a statement calling Pizzo “one of the most ineffective and unpopular Democratic leaders in recent memory, and his resignation is one of the best things to happen to the party in years.” Hey! Didn’t they elect him as their Senate leader? Just asking.
Broward County School Board Removes Offensive Books
One of the most left-wing school boards in one of the most Democrat counties in Florida joined the conservative campaign to remove or restrict books by age group under pressure from Moms for Liberty. A number of books dealing with LGBTQ etc., etc. issues that were deemed to be offensive or inappropriate as children’s reading material – especially for the pre-K to third grade students.
One book totally dropped was “It’s Perfectly Normal” by Robie Harris. It delves into all aspects of sexuality and gender fluidity – aimed at children in the earlies grades. Even those on the left seem to be coming to their senses. One can only wonder how so many folks even thought that such material was ever appropriate for young children. This appears to be one example of the success of pushback by parents throughout the nation. Books like “My Shadow is Pink” and “Pride Pup” are drawing national attention.
The Florida Response
Florida is moving in the right direction – literally and figuratively. It looks like conservative commonsense will prevail over left-wing craziness for years to come. Perhaps that is why the Sunshine State is attracting record numbers of new residents from northern blue woke states.
So, there ‘tis.
“Florida politics … setting the tone for America” Not bloody likely. Nor did it set the tone for Canada or Australia recently: Trump did though.
I have visited FL often, starting around 1970, enjoy my long-time acquaintances at the orchards and the crabbers, wouldn’t live there, then again, would be hard pressed to move to Southern California or Hawaii either. And omg do I know Disney; just love the parks. But I love fall and winter, I like my mountains. I don’t know much about the State, have looked into Florida for covid, education, gdp, employment, but really don’t know the state. It is a unique place and, as such, pretty impossible to be a model for other States given that. I have wondered about their pretty good school systems at a competitive price but have never figured out why, and this started well before DeSanctimonious. It’s an enigma. I can understand NJ’s top billing for education; we pay for it for one, but for FL – mystery. I am sure on tis story Larry tis right for Larry, but I offer a few factoids that might illuminate or make one wonder.
First, housekeeping: Florida in no way sets the tone for NJ politics even if a Republican wins here, which they do, quite often. I do live in Trump country in the North, there’s a good Trump stronghold in the South too. That’s why NJ votes for the Christie’s and Whitman’s of the world. We feel diversity is King, not Trump, and have proven we can throw the bums out as switch parties at the governor’s mansion quite a bit.
But not this election cycle, sorry Charley, oooops, I mean Larry. But I digress, ho ho.
I said before, I expected a Florida bust given the boom, its economic uniformity, housing/insurance prices, and lack of mass transit. Hasn’t happened, but I still say it’s coming. Florida is a weird state. People flood in, retirees and service workers, and people flood out, death and better jobs. It benefits from massive retirement dollars which skew the economy from other State’s. For example, retirees offer about the same tax revenues as “normies.” Yet, they pay less sales/gross receipt tax, more property tax, and the rest about equal. They represent over 20% of population and mostly spend on medical and service items, about 20%. Probably less than 15% on that for the US spending on those items. They spend less for food too. Tourism is about 10% of the State’s GSP and employees. For the US, around 3%. And that’s mostly service workers. Florida’s real estate is 23% of its GSP; around 15% for the country. Their largest revenue company is Publix, in Lakeland. Tech Data, an IT service company, was number two, but it got bought by a CA firm. Then World Fuel, a fuel management company— services. And so on…. This is by revenue, with Publix being number one at $38B. In NJ we have Johnson and Johnson at $89B, and then Merk at $64B, then ADP, not to mention Verizon (actually NYC for the board). Bigger companies, more market sector diversity, less services.
Beyond tourism and service-based sectors, FL has few other strong market sectors in it’s economy. NJ has big pharma, financial, and telecom, to name a few of the big ones. Point is Florida is a weird service-based economy in search of greater diversity. Manufacturing represents 4.3% of FL’s workforce, 5.9% in NJ and I didn’t think we did much more than Campbells’ soup anymore.
Point is not that the FL economy is not dynamic; it is. But it is unique to the needs of the retired, tourists, and service-based workers and not as diverse as most states like NJ. What does that mean? Risk. If tourism crashes, FL’s economy crashes. With the NJ shore, not as big an effect in NJ because we are diverse, we have many more higher paying jobs requiring higher skill sets, and our economy is more resilient than Florida’s economy where population expansion is critical to avoid the bust. More important is population churn to stop the top from blowing off.
Dealing just with the population, yes it’s booming. Larry says: “Perhaps that is why the Sunshine State is attracting record numbers of new residents from northern blue woke states” which is not exactly true. First, the much of the South, Southwest is attacking people. But the Northwest, east of the Rockies, is too. From 2020-22, the bottom growth states/areas were NY, DC, PR, Ill, and LO. The top growth stats, in order, by percentage, were ID, MT, UT, FL, and SC. As to why they are coming, perhaps Larry is right, it has a lot to do with the perceived benefits of the politics. That’s a double-edged sword if that precludes workers from the left who have higher education, make more money, doing things that do that.
FL population has been booming for some time. And given it’s the third highest population of our States, that’s so cool, I never would have guessed. Therefore, a single percentage point in growth means a lot against the likes of Idaho. But in raw numbers, in 2024, Florida was beat by Texas, where the money still is.
More fun facts: Looking deeper into the numbers, Florida saw the largest population gains from international migration but was one of seventeen states that experienced more deaths than births in 2024. In 2024, close to 90% of new Florida citizens came from outside the US, not Northern Blue States. Uh oh, better check those VISAs.
*https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/floridas-population-soars-to-over-23-3-million-in-2024-census-bureau#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%94%20The%20U.S.%20Census%20Bureau,more%20than%2030%20million%20residents.*
Newsweek even went as far as to print: “Number of Americans Moving to Florida Collapses.”
*https://www.newsweek.com/number-americans-moving-florida-collapses-2009668#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20Sunshine%20State%20still,inflow%20of%20411%2C322%20international%20migrants.*
But yes, domestically Larry is right where the folks are coming from as long as he adds “and Texas.” Again, therein may lie the rub. If FL cannot attract a diverse population, if it cannot promote a diverse economy, they will be at a higher risk of bust due to less resiliency in the economy. IMO, that’s the challenge to be met to expand the boom. Just adding more of the same has its limits.
Continuing on with the unique aspects of our sunshine state. Florida is a funny place with its lack a mass transit and dependency on a service-based economy where grocery stores, restaurants, Walmart and Amazon are huge employers. Not much heavy industry, not digging/pumping stuff from the ground, cutting down trees, no Silicon Valley, got citrus sewed up, and mostly service-based companies, especially services for tourists. One shining light in Florida is the space industry where Florida has fallen behind California and Texas in jobs and revenues. It may get NASA headquarters from DC, jury is still out. Maybe they can bribe Trump although he may still carry a DeSantis grudge. Some huge salaries come into FL, but do they work or retire there? For the most part, retire. Still good, but makes for a non-diverse economy of uniformity when retirement is a huge sector. Likewise for tourism.
The tale is on the tape. If we look at median incomes, FL ranks number 30 from the top, without a bullet. Frankly that sucks and is the leading indicator of FL economy issues and challenges. Come to FL to make less money, yippee! IOW, in NJ our median income is 40% higher. For a Walmart worker, that covers a lot of higher-cost-of-living dollars.
FL is also interesting on the taxes, the 42nd lowest total tax burden in the country with average property, sales, and excise taxes. Seniors pay more than avg. property tax in FL, but less on sales and excise and no income tax is a driver, for sure. For the average FL earner, not so much so and the property/sales/excise weigh more heavily.
Last time I did a deep dive into the FL economy, what I noticed is a lot of low-paying jobs not highlighting a lot of “Florida politics … setting the tone for America,” at least if the “tone” is Americans want higher paying jobs. HOWEVER, median income in FL was rising meaning better jobs outside of the service economy were growing. An example of FL’s tone for business would be Disney’s plans for a large expansion and relocation of jobs to Florida, specifically the $1 billion campus in Orlando that was “tone” cancelled because FL seems tone-deaf. These would be highly skilled and educated animation types moved from CA. This decision, announced in May 2023, involved pulling out of a project that would have brought 2,000 jobs, including highly skilled Imagineers, to the Lake Nona area. The cancellation was attributed to “changing business conditions” and was linked to the ongoing political feud started by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. IOW, “tone.” How many other companies have passed on FL expansions or creations due to the political “tone,” environment, and instabilities? Or, looking at this the other way from the worker’s vantage point. If you are a upwardly mobile smart person with a good degree, maybe a Masters, but you happen to lean left —- all things being equal —- do you take the job in Florida, New York, California, or even…..New Jersey? Sorry to say because a decade ago I would not even consider the political aspects in going anywhere in the US. Not in today’s Florida, sorry. And Larry’s story exemplifies that opinion. If you are a business person looking to open an office, if you need lefties because of skill set and education, if you favor diversity, think equality is good, and pick inclusion over exclusion, do you pick Florida due to its “tone?” This is pointing to one or the other being better, but to building a diverse economy to be resilient and growth oriented.
Lastly, while Florida is still seeing population increases, check the inflows against the outflows. Florida is a top state for people to leave too. I close with a piece from AARP: “In 2023, the Census reports, Florida’s net migration fell by half from the previous year. While in 2022 Florida netted almost 250,000 new Floridians from other states, the highest total since 2005, that number fell to just over 126,000 in 2023. More concerning, the number of people leaving the state (510,925) was the highest since the Great Recession in 2008. As of last year, more people are still moving to Florida than are leaving it, but that gap is quickly narrowing.”
This is a similar trick to what happens in NJ where many retirees, rich, leave the State. I call NJ “no country for old men,” and my plan is already set. Younger people enter the state. Once a year, the sky is falling report comes out from Mayflower movers how everyone is leaving. They don’t account for those not using Mayflower or those entering the State which bottom lines for an increased population while Mayflower tells us about the falling sky of older, more affluent people leaving. The press runs with it. My comment to them has been: people coming to NJ to find gold don’t use Mayflower to get here, but after finding it, use Mayflower to leave. And yes, NJ needs work on the leaving part, our property tax weakness, and I can blame Florida’s weather for part of that, not their politics.
In conclusion, Florida’s biggest challenge is to manage the inflows, reduce the outflows, but….most important, creating and nurturing a diverse economy focusing on higher paying jobs outside the service sector. And that means attracting big business, advanced-degree workers, and not just more places to get a buffet dinner. Sorry, Larry and friends, but all States need liberals as well as conservatives to create strong, resilient, economies that can withstand and buffer the ups n downs on a national scale. FL survives on population growth; they will need more in the future; man cannot live by new blood alone, zombie economies do. And America, before Trump, America had the strongest economy in the world, bar none, due muchly to diversity, immigration, inclusion, and freedom to express convictions and ideas without fear of recriminations.
But, behind all that visionary stuff, expecting Florida politics to set the tone for the nation; not bloody likely for no other reason than there’s no other State like the State of Florida, economically speaking.