Biden Sinking … But is He Out For 2024?
According to the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, President Biden looking Increasingly unelectable. Even worse for Democrats, Trump is looking electable.
It is very early to be predicting winners and losers in the respective Democrat and Republican primary elections. But the current situation – and the trend line – seems to bode ill for a Biden-led Democrat ticket in 2024. Based on the numbers, it is conceivable that Biden could actually drop out. He is in the worst shape of any President at this point since Harry Truman in 1952 – and he bowed out.
According to the ABC/Post poll, Biden’s approval rating stands at an abysmal 36 percent – with 68 percent of Americans saying he is too old for a second term. That is one factor that can only get worse as more time goes by – Biden likely has more gaffes, more senior moments and more falls in the future.
Biden is basing his campaign on the economy – at least his rose-colored-glasses view of the economy. The problem is that the folks back home are not feeling it. They are still facing inflationary costs that exceed increasing incomes – and not everyone’s income is increasing. There are still shortages on the shelves. Medical costs are soaring even with the reduction in the co-pay costs of some pharmaceuticals. The American economy is growing at a paltry 1.6 percent.
The Biden campaign has taken on the term “Bidenomics” to be the strategic rallying call for his rosy view of the economy. In a sense, he may be leading with his Achilles Heel. For months, the White House has been proffering the argument that the problem is “messaging.” But no matter how often they message the good news version of the economy, it has not been resonating with the people living with the economy on a day-to-day basis.
In terms of the economy, the ABC/Post poll gives Biden a kick in the political groin. According to the poll, Trump trumps Biden on handling the economy by almost 20 points — 54 percent to 36 percent for Biden.
In the head-to-head theoretical contest, Trumps bests Biden by 10 points – 51 percent to 41 percent. The same is true for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who tops Biden by 50 to 40 percent. To a political strategist, that suggest that almost any Republican could beat Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
Biden’s problems are not reserved to one issue. He gets only a 44 percent favorable rating for handling the Covid Pandemic … 40 percent on immigration … 38 percent on inflation … 37 percent on foreign policy … and 35 percent on crime and gun violence.
Then there is the character issue. A primary Biden strategy is to compare the admittedly flawed personality of Trump to the “Good old Joe” persona of Biden. Unfortunately for Biden, his illegal possession of White House documents and the ever-unraveling Hunter Biden issues has taken most of the sheen off the Biden armor. I would love to see these polling questions: Do you believe President Biden was aware of Hunter Biden’s business activities? Do you believe that President Biden was personally profitably involved in Hunter Biden’s business activities?
As if his own ratings were not enough of a problem, Biden has saddled himself with an equally unpopular Vice President. Kamal Harris’ favorable rating went underwater in June of 2021, and descended to 41 percent recently, according to RealClearPolitics. Her unfavorable rating stands at 53 percent. Ironically, Harris’ 41 percent favorable rating is now higher than Biden’s – which was not the case in the recent past. Metaphorically speaking, Biden and Harris are two drowning people clinging to each other.
The economy has always been a significant driver of votes – and is likely to be true again in 2024. Other issues – such as gun regulation, voting issues, government spending, education and woke issues — are likely to win ballot support from those already in the hardcore Democrat and Republican camps. That leaves abortion as the one issue that Democrats can gain potential support among independents and suburban women, but I doubt it will loom as large as other issues. It probably had more effect in 2022 in the immediate wake of the Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade than it does now as left-wing hysteria and fearmongering is ebbing in terms of public impact.
Making Trump THE issue – as many left-wing Democrat strategists and their media are doing — not only is not working, but it may be backfiring. The more the establishment attacks him – including all those court cases — the stronger he appears. Until recently, I had been among those who believed that Trump was not likely to win the GOP nomination – but not totally impossible – and that he could not win a General Election. I am recalibrating my crystal ball on both those opinions.
As we reflect on these numbers, we should keep in mind that neither ABC/Post nor RealClearPolitics have conservative leanings. These are polls conducted by ostensibly left-wing organizations.
While there is a lot of road ahead in terms of the 2024 presidential election, these are the days in which the political trends begin. Biden has already launched his campaign. He has set out the strategies and the themes. He is taking to the hustings to bring his message to the people. Based on recent polling, Biden is off to … an incredibly bad start.
So, there ‘tis.
Who would vote for Biden that loves America? Not me and most I talk to.
I think the SCOTUS has pretty well maneuvered Biden in for second term. Abortion hits one group, Affirmative Action hits another. School Loans hits another and LGBTQQ is yet another too. These groups either had rights or massive expectations all vanished thanks to SCOTUS. Whatever you feel about the decisions, the Constitutionality, whatever — does not matter when the choice is more of this benefit of the Trump administration or NOT. It’s a large number of affected citizens, many who were active voters to begin with.
And complaints on Kamala notwithstanding; at least Biden didn’t pick a Pence……..
Kamala is a cackling idiot who slept her way to the top in CA. She has trouble speaking to adults without repeating herself multiple times in a paragraph. Pence is articulate and smart and Christian (you might not like that quality, though).
Frank Stetson … The current polling numbers to not support your contention. Have to wait and see.
Larry Horist, many rivers to cross, many legal battles to lose, many gaffs to get —- you know we are light-years away from any poll that matters. I’ll take head-to-head, slight lead, slight loss —- across the polling landscape at this point. Except for abortion, I don’t think any of the other issues have hit the poll’s at this point. Much less the confluence of these issues for some voters.
Good luck.
Larry, You have spouted off a lot of numbers, and I am sure most are accurate to some degree, but they hardly show the entire picture. Most current polling show Trump and Biden statistically tied (averages give Trump a .6% advantage-far from the 10% you quote). I do question your growth rate for the economy of 1.6%, GDP increase for the first quarter was 2%-not setting the world on fire here, but not below the GDP growth that was experienced during the Trump years. People are basing their opinions on Trump and the economy solely on inflation-yes, inflation was lower then, something that Trump inherited from Obama. When (and if) people actually look at what Biden has done for the economy vs what Trump did, you will see those figures start to shift. Trump cut taxes for the rich, ballooned the deficit, had trade wars that forced him to provide ‘relief’ to farmers so they would vote for him in 2020 vs Biden who has passed meaningful infrastructure legislation, provided incentives for companies to move their manufacturing back to the US, and surprisingly, oil and gas production is at the highest level ever in the US. Will the Republicans be successful with their “look over there’ campaign with Hunter Biden? Possibly, but that is the only thing that Republicans have going for themselves, they certainly have not produced any legislation in years that benefited the country as a whole….
Mike f. I did not spout off a lot of numbers. I gave you the numbers from the latest ABC/Washington Post poll. I would not bet the ranch on any single poll and there is a lot of time between now and then. You are in line with the Democrats and left-wing media spin — that as the folks understand all that Biden has done, he will go up in the polls. They have been constantly telling the public all he has done and predicting the public will soon get it. The say it is only a problem of messaging. But they have been sending out that message on endless loop for months. So far, that has not worked. So … is it that people have not heard the good new, or that they just do not agree with the Biden spin. And the voters are not ignoring the age issue … crime … the age issue … border control … the age issue … the Afghanistan screw up …. the age issue … and of course the age issue. Biden’s problems go beyond the economy — although it is an important deal. But so far, the people are not buying the Biden spin. I would suggest that Biden’s greatest asset is folks not liking Trump. And even your numbers put Trump even with Biden. Based on the left-wing reporting on Trump, Biden should be ahead by 30 points. The fact that he is not is giving Democrats strategist apoplexy — well it should.
Yes Larry-you quoted one poll that said what you wanted it to say. The average of the polls done in June says they are tied, which is a far more likely scenario at this point than Biden losing by 10%. Why don’t you print realistic data rather than what serves your purpose? I know, you are a Republican and don’t care for the truth. Both the leading candidates have age issues-only one has a mental impact that prevented him from being re-elected in 2020 though…
Mike f …. I quoted a major poll conducted by left-wing media. Just today. the FAU poll showed … guess what? … Trump with a 10 point lead over Biden. Perhaps your info is outdated. Maybe you need to present realistic data. Mine was very realistic. It was the data produced. And your glossing over Biden’s age problem is another example of you seeing the world as you wish to see it. In virtually every poll, 60+ percent of the voters say Biden is too old to serve a second term. And the fact that even your data shows Biden tied — a sliver behind Trump — is bad news for Biden. We can discount any polling at this juncture, but it is virtually the only data we have. And it can impact on fundraising and who gets in or out. I am all in on the truth, You are responding with your left-wing wishful thinking. You precent data, but you are not good at objectively interpreting it. You BELIEVE Biden will be in better shape in the future — but there is no hard evidence to suggest that. My commentary merely suggests — based on the data — that Biden is not in good shape at this point.
Hmmm: one poll or many polls —- let’s go to the tape.
“According to the latest ABC/Washington Post poll,” Horist is looking good so far.
“It is very early to be predicting winners and losers….” “Based on the numbers, (in one poll) it is conceivable that Biden could actually drop out” because Horist does not have an ax to grind….
“Kamal Harris’ favorable rating went underwater in June of 2021, and descended to 41 percent recently, according to RealClearPolitics” and we have a second poll, albeit for Kamala, not Joe.
Two polls, one hard on. Most professional journalists would note a poll blend, even if highlighting a single poll that was positive for the spin their ax was grinding….
But Larry clearly has an ax to grind here. He never writes objectively, just democrats bad republicans good. Same thing he did when he “trimmed” the economic growth from 2% to 1.6%, and then failed to provide context that the average during trumps presidency was no different than this. This growth taking place while the fed is raising interest rates to levels not seen in years. I’d call Biden a miracle worker, but of course Larry wouldn’t and most of his readers are too ignorant to look beyond the words he writes…
Mike f …. Were I to concede that you are correct about the GDP, we should both be able to agree that 2 percent is pretty bad. You may call Biden a miracle worker, but that is not the general consensus of the public or many economists not tied to the White House. And calling my readers ignorant is just what an ignorant and arrogant left winger would do. You sense of superiority is breathtaking.
Mike, I agree with Mr. Horist that 2% not good, just better than negative. You get to 2.5% and you are beginning to hit the sweet spot. However, Trump’s overall GDP growth performance was the worst since Hoover, it really sucked. It also was well below what Trump said he needed to return on his economic moves, thus the debt and deficit became the largest in history and fulfillment of Trump’s economic plan and promises turned to shit. Trump has some good numbers, but a number of them, like GDP growth, deficits, and spending were abysmal.
Biden also turns in some good numbers, great GDP growth in 2021, weak in 2022, and now – trying to get better. In 2021, he got close to 5.9% gdp growth which is stellar, in 2022 – 2.1 not so good. Most economists pick 2.5-3.5% as optimal. However, the fact is if you have 6% growth for a year, you are looking at a slide —- probably. If 2.0 is the slide, Biden will probably cold-cock Trump in terms of term GDP statistics. It’s hard to destroy a 6% year in the next three years.
Here’s some Bidenomics charts: *https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/feb/06/whats-the-economic-state-of-the-union-under-joe-bi/*
Remember the words I live by: wherever you are in the economy, you have never been here before.
Never truer than today where I, personally, feel like it’s similar to Carter’s stagflation in economic emotion. Like unemployment in the weeds as inflation soars. How does that jibe with the past? Now inflation being booted out of town without a recession. When has that happened? Debt being addressed, but not fast enough or with enough meaning yet. Government investing in a number things with long-term benefits — but not paying off yet. And we are spending a ton of cash in Ukraine for zero return (except potential security). It just all feels a bit squishy, if that’s an economic word. IOW — IMO, Biden is doing OK, not stellar, but OK, but I got a bad feeling about this…..still. Much of the economy due to consumer spending; consumer spending often based on emotion. Expecting a recession, confidence dropped in 2022, but now is surging. However, it is still far lower than pre-Biden and therein may lie the rub.