Kansas and Abortion

Those on the left are claiming a major victory for the abortion proponents.  And it was. It was a lopsided victory (59 to 41 percent).  In this case, a “no” vote meant keeping abortion protection in the Kansas Constitution.

There can be no doubt that a majority of the voters in Kansas want to keep the state constitution as is.  But what broader conclusions can we draw from that vote – especially as it may affect other actions in other states and the 2022 midterm elections?

The general analysis of Democrats and their media allies is that this indicates the importance of abortion as a decisive issue for voters in November.  They believe the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will have independents, suburban and black women, and many Republicans casting ballots for Democrats.  Many see it as THE defining issue of the upcoming campaign.

Certainly, the left-wing media will be giving it constant publicity as part of their overall strategy to support the Democratic Party — but the Kansas vote is not necessarily the best indicator of the impact abortion will have on the vote in November.

The abortion advocates had the traditional advantage in such plebiscites.  As Democrat strategist David Axelrod noted before the vote, the “no” side has a significant advantage.  The knee-jerk reaction of voters is to vote “no” on any referendum.  That is especially true if there was potential for confusion because of the way the proposition is worded.  There was some of that in this case.

However, the natural tendency to vote “no” and any potential confusion is not likely to have changed the outcome in this because of the margin.

More importantly, what about the impact on the November elections?  Abortion advocates believe the Kansas vote portends huge problems for pro-life Republican candidates.  That may be more wishful thinking than good analysis.

The referendum was a vote on abortion – and only abortion.  It was THE issue in that referendum.  The political campaigns to be decided in less than 100 days – and even sooner with early voting – will depend on a wide variety of complex issues.  Voting on a single-issue referendum is very different than voting for a candidate based on an array of issue and personality considerations.

Elections are decided by what voters decide to decide upon.  Abortion may be a top issue for a small percentage of American voters, but the vast majority will be weighing other issues –packages of issues.  There are extremely few single-issue voters.

Abortion has never been a major deciding issue.  Democrats are hoping that the reaction to the overturning of Roe v. Wade will move it up in importance in the minds of voters.  It probably will to some extent, but it is not likely to be one of those so-called “key issues.”

One of the reasons is that most candidates are running for offices that have nothing to do with abortion.  Voters will be evaluating candidates on the positions they take relative to the offices they seek.  Abortion will not be a consideration for most voters when casting ballots for school boards, sheriffs, state treasurers, etc., etc., etc.

Even with offices that may have some tangential involvement with abortion – such as Governors and legislators – there are many other critical issues involved in those campaigns.

One-third of the electorate will cast their ballots for Democrats because that is what they do – and no one issue changes that.  Another third of the electorate will cast their ballots for Republicans – because that is what they do.

The critical third are the independent and the “leaners.”  They will be weighing an array of a complex issues to arrive at their voting decisions.  If the past is prologue, abortion will not be at the top of the list of issues influencing voters.

Kansas was a win for the pro-abortion crowd, but not the bellwether those on the left believe it to be.

So, there ‘tis.