Kansas and Abortion
Those on the left are claiming a major victory for the abortion proponents. And it was. It was a lopsided victory (59 to 41 percent). In this case, a “no” vote meant keeping abortion protection in the Kansas Constitution.
There can be no doubt that a majority of the voters in Kansas want to keep the state constitution as is. But what broader conclusions can we draw from that vote – especially as it may affect other actions in other states and the 2022 midterm elections?
The general analysis of Democrats and their media allies is that this indicates the importance of abortion as a decisive issue for voters in November. They believe the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will have independents, suburban and black women, and many Republicans casting ballots for Democrats. Many see it as THE defining issue of the upcoming campaign.
Certainly, the left-wing media will be giving it constant publicity as part of their overall strategy to support the Democratic Party — but the Kansas vote is not necessarily the best indicator of the impact abortion will have on the vote in November.
The abortion advocates had the traditional advantage in such plebiscites. As Democrat strategist David Axelrod noted before the vote, the “no” side has a significant advantage. The knee-jerk reaction of voters is to vote “no” on any referendum. That is especially true if there was potential for confusion because of the way the proposition is worded. There was some of that in this case.
However, the natural tendency to vote “no” and any potential confusion is not likely to have changed the outcome in this because of the margin.
More importantly, what about the impact on the November elections? Abortion advocates believe the Kansas vote portends huge problems for pro-life Republican candidates. That may be more wishful thinking than good analysis.
The referendum was a vote on abortion – and only abortion. It was THE issue in that referendum. The political campaigns to be decided in less than 100 days – and even sooner with early voting – will depend on a wide variety of complex issues. Voting on a single-issue referendum is very different than voting for a candidate based on an array of issue and personality considerations.
Elections are decided by what voters decide to decide upon. Abortion may be a top issue for a small percentage of American voters, but the vast majority will be weighing other issues –packages of issues. There are extremely few single-issue voters.
Abortion has never been a major deciding issue. Democrats are hoping that the reaction to the overturning of Roe v. Wade will move it up in importance in the minds of voters. It probably will to some extent, but it is not likely to be one of those so-called “key issues.”
One of the reasons is that most candidates are running for offices that have nothing to do with abortion. Voters will be evaluating candidates on the positions they take relative to the offices they seek. Abortion will not be a consideration for most voters when casting ballots for school boards, sheriffs, state treasurers, etc., etc., etc.
Even with offices that may have some tangential involvement with abortion – such as Governors and legislators – there are many other critical issues involved in those campaigns.
One-third of the electorate will cast their ballots for Democrats because that is what they do – and no one issue changes that. Another third of the electorate will cast their ballots for Republicans – because that is what they do.
The critical third are the independent and the “leaners.” They will be weighing an array of a complex issues to arrive at their voting decisions. If the past is prologue, abortion will not be at the top of the list of issues influencing voters.
Kansas was a win for the pro-abortion crowd, but not the bellwether those on the left believe it to be.
So, there ‘tis.
I agree Larry! And first let me thank you for including Independents in your blog! It was very refreshing! As a social security age male independent voter, the issue of abortion is barely on my radar. I do not have a problem with abortion up to a limited number of weeks like 12 or so. And since most laws already allow abortion for endangerment of the mother and rape I am fine. What I do not agree with is this willy nilly approach liberals have to abortion any time for any reason. Killing kids just before or as they are coming out of the womb is just sick to me so I will not vote for anyone who advocates this approach. Nor will I vote for anyone who advocates severe restrictions to abortion that basically would cause IVF to be illegal since often six or so fertilized eggs are implanted and tested for viability – then the least viable are removed. My issues tend to focus on economy, taxes and IRS expansion, inflation, wealth taxes, policies that do harm to my investment portfolio, illegal immigration, fair justice system, pushing woke-ism in our public schools, DOJ over-reach, terrorism in the order stated. Notice that I did not even mention abortion. Abortion would only be a tie-breaker for two extremely similar candidates running for the same office.
Again Larry, there is no one in America that is pro abortion. You will never find a protester with a pro abortion sign. No one would call people this except this except someone who needs to feel better by putting someone else down. A bully who needs feel better by shaming others with his made-up brand. The ones that you brand as pro abortionist, are pro choice. Quit demeaning them by making up names with terrible connotations.
We don’t call you proslavery for demanding that pregnant women forced to deliver, basically be tied down, not allowed to leave the state, and forced to birth even to rape babies, incest babies or wait until they are in ER ICU conditions before acting to save the life of the mother. It’s cruel and barbaric the way you want the state to control women’s bodies. It’s slavery. You want to turn them into broodmares.
Let’s just castrate all the young sons out there so that we will not have any more unplanned pregnancies. I have to imagine you have no problem being pro ball-less. .
Pro life is equal to gaving the state control women’s bodies for the sake of something that is not yet a human form is beyond me. But it is your right to have an opinion but why the made-up slander brand?. I would never call you proslavery. You should cease calling people pro abortion, it’s just a stupid fuck thing to do in order to make you feel better. You demean others just for the pure reason of making yourself feel better. That’s just mean, weak, and uncalled for
The voters in Kansas settled it. So what’s the big deal. If it’s a state issue let the voters have a voice. Don’t worry. Baby murder is not going anywhere
Are you threatening murder now?
Getting scary round here
You really are losing your mind. I never threatened to murder anyone. Dumbass. Read my post again you idiot