Is Joe Manchin Joining the GOP?

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is a Democrat Senator in one of the most Republican states in America.  He is arguably the most conservative Democrat in a Senate that is steering to the left at warp speed under Democrat leadership.

Democrats in Congress vote as a bloc – except for Manchin, on occasion – and the Republicans vote as a bloc, but with less discipline – having a dozen or so members who can vote with the Democrat majority on one issue or another.

But even with only a slim majority in the House and a technical majority in the evenly tied Senate – with Vice President Harris as a tie-breaker – Democrats have enormous power.  They can set the rules.  They can pick and choose the legislation to be considered.  Democrats have the power of the purse.  Except for the filibuster, there is no restraint on their rule. And they are maximizing the use of their advantage to achieve permanent empowerment.

That makes Manchin arguably the most powerful man in the Senate – maybe in the entire Congress. 

In terms of the most controversial and critical legislative proposals, Manchin could be the deciding vote.  It appears he is already proving that with his opposition to the elimination of the filibuster. Assuming he does not fold under pressure from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Manchin may be the only reason that Democrats cannot eliminate the filibuster and run the table with their far-left legislative agenda.   He is thwarting their effort to radically change America – as Schumer has promised.

But there is one action that would far outweigh his occasional apostasy from Schumer’s progressive agenda.  Manchin could switch over to the Republican Party.

More often than not, such switches involve moving from the losing unpopular party to the winning more popular party. From the party that has lost the majority to the party that has won the majority.  Joe Manchin joining the GOP would be going from the majority party to the minority party.

BUT … he would instantly switch the parties’ relative positions. 

Republicans would take control of the Senate by one vote.  Joe Manchin joining the GOP would instantly quash the entire radical agenda of the Democratic Party.  There would be no threat to the filibuster.  The Electoral College would be out of danger.  The massive reckless spending would end.  It would certainly be the most dramatic label change in American history – with the possible exception of Abraham Lincoln’s switch from the Whig to the Republican Party.

While Manchin’s tendency toward his perceived conservative values has enabled him to maintain his seat as the Senator from a Republican state, he may not be so lucky next time – especially if remaining in the Democratic Party has him voting for more extreme liberal legislation.  It is hard to imagine that he would be defeated as a Republican in West Virginia.  In fact, it may be the only way he can get re-elected.  At a rather vigorous 73, Manchin could serve another 12 years in the Senate and still not break any age records.

Though he may not be the most conservative member of the Republican Party – he would be on the right side of most of the critical issues – immigration, abortion, tax cuts and excessive deficit spending.

Since making such a switch would put Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the Leader’s job, it is unimaginable that he has not thought about enticing Manchin to join the GOP – or even had some hallway conversations.

The possibility and importance of a crossover would put Manchin in an extraordinarily strong negotiating position. 

He could demand financial support for any future campaign – and that the Party leadership discourage any primary opposition.  He would have his pick of committee assignments and perhaps even one of the more coveted chairmanships.  And he could even be a potential candidate for Vice President on a Republican ticket.

It is curious that there has not been any significant speculation about such a switch in the news media.  For some, it may be just a too outrageous and unlikely prospect.  For others, it may be a fear that saying it out loud will increase the possibility.

On the downside, it is not easy to uproot so many years of involvement – and so many relationships.  While the GOP would welcome Manchin as a hero, he would incur the wrath of lifelong friends and associates. 

Maybe the thought of Joe Manchin joining the GOP is the reason President Biden nominated his wife to co-chair of the Appalachian Regional Commission.

It would take very long odds to wager on Manchin switching to the Republican Party. But in politics, anything can happen.

So, there ‘tis.