Trump garnering unprecedented support from minorities
Considering the number of civil and criminal cases President Trump faces in courts in multiple states – and the constant pounding he is getting from Democrats and leftwing media – his general polling numbers are phenomenal. He is in a statistical tie with President Biden in most polls – leading in some. He has a significant advantage over Biden in virtually all the major issues – including in Biden’s most touted issue – Bidenomics. Biden’s only lead is with abortion.
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once used the term “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” to describe the inexplicable. That could apply to Trump’s polling numbers – at least from the standpoint of his critics. But nowhere is Churchill’s description more applicable than in terms of Trump’s support among minorities.
Trump and his followers have been (wrongfully) described as racists and white supremacists who only serve the interests of rich white people. Conversely, Democrats have always claimed the loyalty of Blacks and Hispanics – and more recently, Asians. And until the Hamas War, Muslims. That has been the historic reality.
But times, they are a changin’. And it has Democrat politicians and strategists bewildered and worried.
In a recent compilation of five leading polls, Trump has been averaging 20 percent with Black voters and 42 percent with Hispanics. That is virtually the exact percentage of Black and Hispanic votes that President Reagan got in 1984 when he carried 49 of the 50 states in a landslide election. Biden leads Trump with Black voters by a 47-point margin – but that is down 15-points from a year ago. Biden is currently hemorrhaging among Black voters – especially Black men.
With Biden having only a 3-point lead over Trump with Hispanic voters – according to an Emerson poll — it is possible that the former President could win a majority. President George W. Bush won 50 percent of the Hispanic vote in six swing states in his winning 2004 election – and 41 percent nationally. That is the best performance by a GOP candidate in modern times – and Trump is tracking at the same numbers.
A recent New York Times poll in six critical swing states showed Trump with an astounding 30 percent support among Black voters and 50 percent among Hispanics. If those figures are accurate and hold up until Election Day, it is game over.
In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won 29 percent of the Asian vote. According to recent polls, he is now supported by 40 percent of Asian voters. In politics, shifts of this magnitude are seismic.
In 2016, Trump received 13 percent of Muslim votes. In 2020, he increased that to 35 percent according to exit polls. He did that despite the Democrats calling his restriction on immigration of Muslim-majority nations “Islamophobic.” While there has not been a lot of polling, news reports suggest that Muslims are abandoning Biden in great numbers for his embrace – literal and figurative – of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In addition to crossing over to Trump, many Muslims have expressed their intention to skip voting for President.
There are many reasons why Trump and Republicans are making gains among minorities. They are complex and multitudinous. Many urban Blacks are re-evaluating their ties to the Democratic Party in view of their generations of segregation and oppression in Democrat run cities. The largely Catholic and family-oriented Hispanics are pro-life and reject the woke gender fluidity of the Democrats. Asians are seeing anti-Asian racism in such Democrat programs as Affirmative Action.
Whatever the reasons, there is a clear trend of minorities moving to the GOP. The trend has momentum – meaning the best is yet to come for Trump and the Republican Party. If the Black, Hispanic, Asian and Muslim polling numbers remain this high for Trump, he is very likely going to win the 2024 election. Biden’s challenge is not to hold on to the minority vote, but to regain it. That is a much harder task.
So, there ‘tis.