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Russian Invasion Imminent – Have We Been Here Before?

Russian Invasion Imminent – Have We Been Here Before?

I’m no military strategist, but having worked in some of the CIA’s counter insurgency operations, I’ve seen first hand how small groups of determined people can win where they are expected to lose. It seems to me that we have seen Russians attempt to take over another nation before and stopped it in its tracks with a rather simple strategy.

That nation is Afghanistan. The Soviet Union attempted to take over the country in the 1980s and were eventually forced to leave.

Our strategy was to support the Mujahideen with Stinger missiles which shot the Soviet helicopters down, making it impossible for the Soviets to conduct military operations. This is a form of asymmetric warfare, i.e. it is not designed to conquer, but is very effective when you have the advantage of knowing the territory better than your enemy.

So let’s see.

Will a stinger missile still work on Russian helicopters? Yes, they will, although perhaps not as easy as it used to be. And in fact, a Stinger will take down a jet aircraft under the right conditions. So a nice supply of Stingers, current price $120K each would prevent any permanent airbases or casual presence inside the Ukraine.  Hmm, someone seems to like the idea. 

What about those tanks? There seem to be a lot of anti-tank missiles to choose from.

A TOW missile appears to cost about $60,000.  The Russians have massed about 1200 tanks near Ukraine in preparation for the invasion. It might take a while, but shooting at a $3.7 million T-14 Main Battle Tank seems cost effective.  How many would have to be destroyed before Russia gets discouraged?

I’m not saying this would be easy. You will not stop Russian bombing raids, artillery, long range missiles or cyber warfare crippling the Ukraine infrastructure with these tactics. If Ukraine fights back, it will be bloody.

The terrain in Ukraine is not as unforgiving as in Afghanistan, supply lines will be easier to defend for the Russians.

And the Russians are correct that there are a lot of ethnic Russians in the Ukraine, who might easily become intelligence sources against a rebellious local militia.

And even more dangerous. Putin is a politician, he cannot stand to be embarrassed. What will Putin do if his proud army gets kicked out of what is essentially a third world country?  He could pull out, but he also could level the country with bombs.

Biden is incompetent and clueless, and can never pull this off.

But if Trump were still President, I could see him developing a whole picture for Putin of the same quagmire that they were stuck in Afghanistan in the 1980s. No upside and a very costly downside. And Trump would be smiling, because Trump knows how to negotiate and knows when he has a winning hand.

After all, warfare is just an extension of politics, right? 

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19 Comments

  1. Ben

    Russia is smart waiting for a moron like Biden to be in the White House. The Russians know that he isn’t mentally fit to oppose them

    • Joe Gilbertson

      That is true. Hindsight is 20/20 but a good president would just say “hey go ahead, here is what is waiting for you. The area you occupy will be a quagmire that will not be economically viable for the next 20 years.”

    • Ben

      I suppose when you aren’t capable of forming your own thoughts, you use someone else’s name and pretend to post as them.
      A very conservative/ Russian ploy.
      That’s why I love the PBP, it just amplifies all the bullshit republicans are famous for. Thank you for your public service.

    • Ben

      You know Sleepy Joe is a moron because he stole the election fron Donald Trump and can’t be caught. Only a moron could do that.

      You know that if he wanted to, Donald Trump could stop this Ukrainian war in a heartbeat just by calling his friend Putin and telling him enough is enough. If we had just voted him in as president he would save all of those lives. Instead he will do nothing and they will all die. That’s the price of cheating in an election.

      • Big Daddy

        Ben ( the second)
        So Biden is a moron, but capable of outsmarting trump by stealing the election… that doesn’t say much for your cult leader trump

        • Larry kuhn

          Joe blow didn’t know if was happening. His handlers knew that he would snitch. So stfu little daddy

  2. Ben

    Joe,
    I like that you mention how Afghanistan was able to defeat the Soviet Union.. without mentioning 9-1. All the training and arms were used against us, how dare that dog we trained, squat in our back yard?

    Maybe just sit this one out.

  3. Ben

    When has the CIA got things right? When has their meddling not come back to haunt us in some way? I don’t think touting your past work with them actually bolsters your credibility.

    • Ben

      You aren’t the only Ben in the world you dumbass

      • Ben

        You aren’t the only dumbass in the world, evil Ben. Just one of the biggest. OB is the best

    • Joe Gilbertson

      This CIA makes probably 20,000 predictions every year, which you don’t hear about, and about 99% of those are correct. They also do a varying number of covert actions every year, which you don’t hear about. Most of them achieve their goals.

      • B4CE

        Joe, they got it wrong when they overthrew the democratically elected Ukrainian President just because we didn’t like his pro Russia stance.
        And now we are dealing with this.

        “Nobody talks about when we don’t destroy everything” isn’t a really good argument for the CIA.

        * since I am no longer the only Ben on the platform, I am formally changing my name here at PBP. I know there are no other B4CE’s

  4. Ben

    Why hasn’t Don just called his friend Vlad to ask him to stop before all those people, potentially including Americans, have to die? Sure would seem to be a real feather in his cap to solve Joe’s fuck up after creating the vaccine that doesn’t work all by himself.

    Aren’t they like bff’s with incredible respect for each other? I am sure Joe would lend him camp David and transport for any sort of meeting that might need to go on. Might be some great PR for either midterms or his 2024 reemergence. Sure seems strange that he’s so silent on his BFFs very aggressive moves.

    • B4CE

      Ben, that’s a good question,
      Why hasn’t donny intervened? Instead he is singing Daddy Vlad’s genius moves. It’s VERY interesting, almost as if donny is is rooting against American interests.

      • B4CE

        I think she should go back to Ben. Everyone on punching bag post should be Ben. Then it would be all Ben all Ben time. As the poet said:

        I’ve Ben fire, hi Ben rain. I Ben lonely days and I thought would never end.

        You’ve got a friend.

        • Big Daddy

          I don’t get this line of posting? I noticed you did this with frank, now me. When your platform is without substance, I guess you have to resort to hijinks.
          I suppose it beats the normal PBP responses of racism, homophobia, and hatred.

          I’ll bet your huckleberry, count me in.

          • Ben

            If Joe defends outright known lies. If Joe allows filthy vulgar language and ad hominem attacks. Apparently, Joe draws the line at Larry’s kids. But everything else, including lies that could actually harm other people, is fair game. That’s not free speech, that’s just a travesty.

            Just another weak assed forum on the Internet to make a buck any way it can.

            So why not. It’s all just entertainment so Joe can make a buck anyway. Joe’s fool, Larry is his tool, but Ben, he’s cool.

            Are you not entertained! Certainly, you didn’t come here for information, discussion, and debate? Those go out the window when Joe says, I respect your lie and he damn well knows better.

            His level of moderation is chaos. His level Plainfield is tilted to the upsetd.

          • Perry

            Faggott

          • Ben

            And Perry knows faggots. He’s a faggot master.

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