Russia Executing “Cauldron” Strategy in Ukraine
As we have reported before, Russia has been executing an encirclement of the Ukrainian Army in the east.
Perhaps our timing is a bit off, it is taking longer than we expected, but our assessment of Russia’s strategy has been on the nose. Unless major tactical changes happen soon, the Ukrainian army will be trapped and disarmed by the Russians.
If you look at the map section below, which purports to be an accurate placement of the troops around 18 April, you see circled (our markings) of what is said to be 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izyum area. Those groups are moving to enclose the Ukrainian forces (green boxes).
This is called a “cauldron battle.” The cauldron strategy involves encircling an enemy’s emplacements, cutting off their resupply routes for food and ammunition and then either pounding them with artillery or starving them into surrender. In other words, surround them and “boil” them.
As Russia executes this strategy, Ukrainian forces will find it more and more difficult to get supplies. While those encircling lines to the west may be thin and subject to attacks from forces from outside (for example, forces currently guarding Kyiv), they can be supported and reinforced by Russian air assets.
There will be no surprises, Russia’s intelligence assets will see any attack coming and provide ample warning for reinforcements.
We have not seen indications of it yet, but we expect to see Russian forces circling up from the South to meet those coming down from Izyum.
NATO’s support to Ukraine has made it more difficult for the Russians but is not making enough of a difference to turn the war.
Remember, Putin is 100% committed, there is no turning back for him. At the moment, he is a hero in Russia with popular support, but this will turn on a dime if he starts to back down or reduce his demands.
When you see in mainstream media the “victories” that Ukraine has won and how Russia has been badly beaten back. This does not jibe with the information we are seeing from sources on the ground.
We have consistently maintained that if the U.S. had competent leadership, this war would not have happened. The Biden Administration has made America and Europe look weak, ineffectual, desperate and cowardly. Russia is winning, and they have shown the way for others, notably China, to further their own goals of world domination without fear of effective interference by western powers.
Putin is an evil man, perhaps even a sociopath. But a bit of research shows that his goals have been consistent with the security of Russia. The correct approach (from, for example, a Donald Trump-like leader) would have made this go a different way.