Polling pendulum swinging back in Trump’s favor
For a while, Democrats thought they had President Trump on the ropes. Some thought the incessant attacks and universal blame game had finally produced a knockout.
However … the most recent polls show Trump’s resilience and the Democrats’ reliance on their shop-worn, failed hyperbolic attacks that Trump is a king-like authoritarian who is bringing down the American democracy. How many times can they yell “king,” “dictator,” “Nazi” and expect it to work on the American public that has rejected that bs consistently for the past 10 years. Only a small minority of overly zealous partisans – or people with IQs in single digits – have bought into that political garbage.
Despite the left-wing establishment’s high hopes, Trump’s overall polling numbers are on the upswing again. According to a Newsweek article by Martha McHardy, “President Donald Trump is experiencing a rebound in public opinion, new polling showing a surge in his national approval ratings.”
The ratings range from a high 55 percent approval rating in the Insider Advantage poll to the lowest YouGov/Economist poll at 42 percent approval. What is noteworthy, however, is that Trump has moved up in every one of the surveys conducted by the top ten polling organizations. The polling average gives Trump a 48 percent approval rating.
At this time four years ago, President Biden had a 52 percent approval rating, but that was before the Afghanistan fiasco. After that, Biden never achieved a favorable rating above the 50 percent mark – and it eventually sank into the 30th percentile range.
The J. L. Partners/Daily Mail poll has Trump at 50 percent — up 5 points from the previous poll. The Reuters/Ipsos puts Trump at 44 percent – up 2 points.
Trump has shown an upswing on key issues, such as his handling of the economy and immigration. His cutting taxes is popular with voters. According to CNN’s numbers guru, Harry Enten, 60 percent of voters want Trump’s tax cuts even if they add to the National Debt.
It is not only Trump who is doing better. So is the Republican Party – especially in Congress. While Democrats are pounding congressional Republicans, it is the Democrats in Congress who are in trouble with voters. According to Enten, the approval of congressional Democrats is at an all-time low – prompting Enten to rhetorically ask, “How low can they go?”
According to Quinnipiac Research, only 21 percent of all voters approve of congressional Democrats — a record low, with a whopping 68 percent disapproving. More shocking is that only 40 percent of Democrats approve of their party’s performance in Congress, with 49 percent disapproving.
Democrat strategist James Carville points out that polls are only polls. It is elections that count. Pointing to anecdotal Democratic victories in recent elections, he remains optimistic about the Democrats’ chances in 2024.
I have predicted a Democrat take-over of the House based on the current narrow margin held by Republicans and the tradition of the party holding the White House to lose seats in midterm elections. With the current polling numbers, I see a slightly greater possibility for the GOP to hold control. A lot will depend on Trump’s popularity in the summer of 2026.
As I warned Democrats not to get too giddy over Trump’s falling polling numbers, I advise the GOP not to get too giddy over the current upswing. It is good news for Republicans, but nothing that cannot change.
The only thing I believe we can draw from these numbers is that Trump has resiliency and Democrats still have no idea how to take him on politically.
So, there ‘tis.
The political prognosticator getting weirder by the day boldly states: “President Donald Trump is experiencing a rebound in public opinion, new polling showing a surge in his national approval ratings.” Gee, how often has he told us not to rely on a single poll, single datapoint in time to reach conclusions? Is a single datapoint a trend now for the author?
“For a while, Democrats thought they had President Trump on the ropes. Some thought the incessant attacks and universal blame game had finally produced a knockout.” Really? Democrats without any Congressional power claiming “mission accomplished” 120 plus days into a four year term? Methinks the author drinks too much. Or too little.
As the author goes to Newsweek for the quote; uses a combination of polls to prove his point, I too, will turn to the next Newsweek story posted a few weeks after his polls: “The majority of polls published in recent days have shown Trump’s net approval ratings deep underwater, but they paint a mixed picture. Some polls have shown his approval ratings ticking up in recent days. That includes Newsweek’s tracker, which shows that Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 46 percent, while 51 percent disapprove of the president. Earlier this month, his approval rating stood at 44 percent, while his disapproval rate was firmly in the 50s. The latest Insider Advantage poll, conducted between May 17 and 19 among 1,000 likely voters, gave Trump a net approval rating of +11 points, with 55 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving. That was up from a net approval rating of +2 points in early May, when 46 percent approved and 44 percent disapproved. And the latest Morning Consult poll also showed a surge in Trump’s approval rating, with 48 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving, giving the president a net approval rating of -2 points, his highest approval rating since mid-March. This is up from -7 in early May, when he had a 45 percent approval rating and 52 percent disapproved.
Meanwhile, the latest J.L. Partners/Daily Mail poll conducted between May 13 and 14 among 1,003 registered voters put Trump’s approval rating at 50 percent, up 5 points from 45 percent in April.
The overarching trend in the polls is one of stability, with some showing that his ratings have not substantially changed beyond a 1- or 2-point dip—within the margin of error—or have not changed at all. That includes the most recent Navigator Research poll, conducted between May 15-18 among 1,376 registered voters, which showed Trump’s approval rating stands at 44 percent, while 54 percent disapprove. That is unchanged from April. Similarly, in Quantus’ latest poll, conducted between May 18-20, Trump’s approval rating stood at 48 percent, while 48 percent disapproved. That is unchanged from a poll conducted earlier in May, and an April poll also showed his approval rating stood at 48 percent, while his disapproval rating was 2 points higher at 50 percent. Marquette’s most recent poll also showed his approval rating unchanged from March, while an American Research Group poll, conducted between March 17 and 20 among 1,100 adults, put Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent, down just 2 points from 43 percent in April. His disapproval grew from 53 percent to 55 percent.
A YouGov/Economist poll conducted from May 16 to 19 pegged Trump’s approval at 43 percent, up 1 point from 42 percent the previous week, while disapproval ticked down slightly from 52 percent to 51 percent. The same pattern occurred in the latest Civiqs poll, conducted between May 17 and 20 among 1,018 registered voters. And in Gallup’s latest poll, conducted between May 1 and May 18 among 1,003 adults, Trump’s approval rating fell by 1 point to 43 percent, while his disapproval rating remained unchanged since April at 53 percent. Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek that the stability in Trump’s polling numbers is “emblematic of a deeply polarized electorate.” “His floor of support has proven incredibly durable over time, even amid huge major controversies and unflattering media coverage,” he added.
How Trump’s Approval Rating Compares To First Term: The RealClearPolitics tracker shows that on May 24, 2017, Trump’s approval rating was 40 percent, while his disapproval rating was 54 percent. This gave him a net approval rating of -14 points, making Trump more popular now than at the same point in his first stint in the Oval Office.
How Trump’s Approval Rating Compares To Biden’s: Trump’s 46 percent approval rating is lower than that of former President Joe Biden at the same point in his presidency. On May 24, 2021, Biden stood at 54 percent, with a disapproval rating of 42 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.
While Trump began his second term with his highest approval rating, according to Gallup’s first poll of Trump’s second term, conducted between January 21 and 27, he was still less popular than any president since 1953 at the start of a term and the only one to begin with a sub-50 percent approval rating. Gallup said Biden started his first term with a 57 percent approval rating.
According to data compiled from Gallup by The American Presidency Project, Trump ranks far below other recently elected presidents after 100 days, dating to Dwight Eisenhower, who had an approval rating of 73 percent.
Other recently elected presidents with higher approval ratings at the 100-day mark include John F. Kennedy, 83 percent; Richard Nixon, 62 percent; Jimmy Carter, 63 percent; Ronald Reagan, 68 percent; George H.W. Bush, 56 percent; Bill Clinton, 55 percent; George W. Bush, 62 percent; and Barack Obama, 65 percent.
What Happens Next: Trump’s approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, the evolving tariff situation and concerns about a recession.”
And therein lies the rub. On Tuesday, we get durable goods orders. On Thursday, GDP growth QoQ, that’s a biggee. On Friday, all sorts of pricing, spending, and income statistics. The following Friday is unemployment rate, another biggee. And middle of the month, all the inflation reports, another biggee.
The author got it right, said it wrong when he said Trump has resiliency. What he’s got is a steadfast, die hard, base that not only will never change, but also scares the living fuck out of less polarized conservatives and turns them into closet Trump detractors waiting for it to be safe enough to speak out. Perhaps.
Let’s get real. It’s the economy stupid. And while the Biden economy left people out, it was generally, by the numbers, quite robust at the end. Most said the strongest world economy. We have many storm clouds on the economic horizon perhaps not felt by all poll takers. Negative GDP can portend recession, certainly more than a strong growth rate. Unemployment has been relatively steady for a year; one would expect a Spring pickup which ought to be seen on Friday. Inflation rate too has been relatively steady since last May, yet some items like beef, eggs, coffee, sugar, sweets, and soda all facing much higher prices. And the tariffs have yet to hit but are hitting the airwaves hard as producers and retailers tell us of higher tariff prices coming or no increase from tariffs until the first week of June. This is a case where all advertising is bad and the amount of tariff advertising is reaching tsunami levels.
So, of course, Mr. Horist is a Horist, of course, but this liberal says Trump is not over, frankly, he has barely started. But he’s not got a lot of good news for Trump either. You mirror that by spending time on bad news for Democrats versus actually showing production by Trump making our economy and lives better. We’re showing our true colors by black-bagging innocents to death-camp gulags that we fund now. We black-bag innocents to South Sudan where they can’t even speak the language, know anyone, broke and destitute. Inflation remains Biden-low but prices not coming down, more going up like beef and coffee. Planes dropping from the skies while the folks charged to protect the skies tell us not to fly out of our busiest airport (I’m on a jet path, so I appreciate the emptier skies, thank you Don. So is his golf course, aha!!). And the cost of one-time severance and unemployment for hundreds of thousands of government workers still has not hit the fan. Nor the taxpayer costs for the legal bills to depend delusional EO’s where judges keep asking Trump: “why are you here in my court?”
Yeah, I think we both have a long ways to go to cry out: “mission accomplished,” but I still like my odds over yours.
Two years. Getting shorter every day. And it’s burger time!!!! Hope everyone had a joyous weekend even with the price of beef…….
When Trump came down the elevator and announced his plans for the Presidency, that
moment he had my vote.
He has had it ever since.
When Bush endorsed Kamala, that reassured me I had been correct all along that neither
party gives a Crap about Joe Tax Paying Citizen.
When Trump announced his plans on Tariffs, I got it, sometime you have to play a little Poker in Business
to get to your objectives.
This is not what bothered people in charge, it is the HONESTY in things like DOGE!
Perfect example, Biden wanted 80,000 armed Tax agents, ( As his kid skips Taxes no less ) to
add to out federal deficit. More money to spend on his Friends and Bullshit programs at
our expense.
More money that would have been cut by DOGE as they uncover the Bullshit.
And people wonder why Trump’s numbers went up?
Find the percentage of people on the crooked government take and that will give
you the percentage number of Democratic supporters.
Polls, polls, and more polls, everyday poll results get published. They nothing but a snapshot of a moment in time one data point in a fast moving opinion stream. I am sure polling organizations can defend their work’s value. But, their test population number is teaspoon size sampling from the stream as it rushed past. Who put the most weight on polling results than the so called pundits? They sell themselves as prognosticators of how empires rise and fall. Their reading of poll statistics is like reading tea leaves or palm lines. In the end it’s all meaningless hype.
Pundits are elitist fortune tellers. Their predictions are more off the mark than on.
Another counterpoint to the author’s rant. This is from Semafor, rated least biased and highly factual.
It’s titled: “Trump’s falling in polls. Why aren’t Democrats benefiting?”
*https://www.semafor.com/article/05/05/2025/trumps-falling-in-polls-why-arent-democrats-benefiting*
Interesting read.
And yet, another view, this one focusing on the status of 2026 elections from FOX and Karl Rove. This one speaks to my point that yes, we are in trouble, we have no leadership, no common message, etc. BUT the Trumaga’s have no more Trumps, poll generically badly on the 2026, have lost most of any votes since 2024, and most important —- won decidedly across the board, in all locations, but at numbers that are as close to the middle as possible. IE —– you have almost as many agin you as fer you. And you should of paid note to that instead of hitting fast forward on the steamroller.
Karl says: “The Bottom Line: Even though Democrats are losing favorability, they still hold an advantage on the generic ballot. Democrats perform better on the generic ballot with Independents (40%-18%), blacks (68%-21%), voters under 30 (60%-33%), and college educated women (59%-37%). Republicans have an edge with white men without a degree (54%-38%) and white evangelical Christians (66%-29%). Democrats and Republicans are somewhat even with rural voters (40% Democrat-50% Republican). Even though the Democratic Party favorability rating have dropped, Republican leaders, incumbents, and challengers still have much to do to make the sell next November on what they have done for the country and what they’ll continue to do. ”
*https://www.rove.com/polling-news/5-15-25-pnn*